Musselburgh
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Mr & Mrs McKinlay Wedding Anniversary Handicap Stakes
Awaiting result
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.
Max Of Stars
Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice
48
Our top pick for this race
Very strong chance
Why this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- A 7-runner race works well for this horse. The number of runners changes the pace and how much room a horse has.
- 18 days since the last run. That is a usual break, so there is nothing to read into it.
TrackLab Insight
The most prolific winner in the field by some distance — she wins roughly 1 in 4 races across her career and has the best record at this two-mile trip specifically, winning 3 from 11 attempts at the distance. The concern is ground: she's yet to win on standard or similar dry conditions across nine attempts, which is a real red flag given what's underfoot today. A young, inexperienced jockey also adds some uncertainty.
Best record at this trip (3 from 11)
Best career win rate in field (1 in 4)
Why this score
- With a 9.7% win rate overall, D. Nolan is one of the more dependable riders.
- A 7-runner race works well for this horse. The number of runners changes the pace and how much room a horse has.
- 1 win from 2 runs at this track. When a horse likes a course, it often runs well there again.
TrackLab Insight
The top-rated horse in this field by 4lbs, which is a meaningful advantage in a tight seven-runner race like this. She won 1 in 5 races at two miles or more, making this trip a genuine strength, and a recent second at Catterick suggests she's in decent shape right now. The concern is that today's dry ground has caught her out before — she's yet to win on it in three attempts.
Top rated by 4lbs
Why this score
- 7 runners today is a good number for this horse. The number of runners affects how a race is run.
- This horse runs well on today's ground, with a 20% win rate from 5 runs. The ground makes a big difference in racing.
- The jockey has not had many recent rides, so there is little recent form to go on.
TrackLab Insight
Ran just eight days ago and finished third, so fitness isn't in question — and his best form on dry ground (winning 1 in 5 on fast ground) makes today's conditions a tick in the right box. His last six results include two wins and four top-four finishes, which is a horse coming into form at the right time. He's never won at Newcastle across six attempts, though, which is the one nagging doubt.
Best record on this ground (1 from 5)
Why this score
- 7 runners today is a good number for this horse. The number of runners affects how a race is run.
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- There is little recent data for The jockey. Without enough rides, it is hard to judge their form.
TrackLab Insight
The wildcard of this field — her only career win came at Cheltenham in one of the highest-level races in British racing, yet she's stepping up two class levels here and ran just six days ago after finishing ninth. That Cheltenham win proves rare ability, but her record on dry ground and on sharp left-handed tracks is worrying for this specific test. There's talent buried in here, but there are more question marks than answers today.
Steps up 2 classes
Runs again after just 6 days
Why this score
- This is a 7-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- Not enough recent rides for The jockey to judge their form. That is not good or bad news.
TrackLab Insight
The least experienced horse in the field and still searching for a first win from ten career races — his recent form reads sixth, seventh, seventh, which doesn't suggest a breakthrough is imminent. He's also the second-lowest rated runner and carries his weight down into a field well above where he's been operating. Honest data, but it's hard to find a compelling reason to think today will be different.
Winless from 10 career races
Why this score
- 7 runners today is a good number for this horse. The number of runners affects how a race is run.
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- There is little recent data for The jockey. Without enough rides, it is hard to judge their form.
TrackLab Insight
The standout fact here is that Newport has actually won over this course and distance — he's one of the very few in this field who can say that, and at Musselburgh that's meaningful form. He also won at Hexham just 30 days ago, so he arrives in decent nick. The worry is a long list of track-type struggles — he's yet to win on seven different track configurations — and today's dry ground isn't his best surface either.
Has won over this course and distance
Why this score
- A 7-runner race works well for this horse. The number of runners changes the pace and how much room a horse has.
- Has raced 3 times on this ground with a low win rate. Today's ground may not suit it.
- Not enough recent rides for The jockey to judge their form. That is not good or bad news.
TrackLab Insight
The lowest-rated horse in the field by a clear margin — 12lbs below average — and still without a win from 13 career races. The lighter weight he carries because of that low rating is the one thing working in his favour, and his form has improved lately with a third and a second in his last two outings. But he's never won at Newcastle in six attempts, and in a race where others carry stronger form and ratings, he looks to be outclassed.
Lowest rated, 12lbs below average
Carries lowest weight in field