Musselburgh
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Hays Travel Holiday Outside The Box Handicap Stakes
Awaiting result
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.
Why this score
- J. Hart has won 11.8% of their races in their career. That steady record counts for a lot.
- Finished 1st in the last race, which is a good result. A good last run suggests the horse is in good shape.
- A weight disadvantage of 9.2 lbs compared with the average for this race. Racing is decided by small margins, and weight matters.
TrackLab Insight
The most eye-catching recent form in the field — won at Pontefract just four days ago, having also finished second the time before that, so this is a horse firing on all cylinders right now. Carrying the lightest weight of any runner here, which gives him a physical advantage in a race like this. The question is whether coming back just four days after a win leaves him with enough in the tank to back it up.
Carries lowest weight in field
Runs again after just 4 days
Max Of Stars
Very little experience on today's ground
16
Why this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- Facing weaker rivals than last time out. When a horse drops to an easier race, it often finds things easier.
- Last raced 18 days ago. That is a normal gap between runs.
TrackLab Insight
The best win rate in the entire field — winning roughly 1 in 4 races across a 35-race career — but she steps up two class levels today, which is a significant ask. Her form on dry ground is also a concern: zero wins from six races on this type of surface. At Newton Abbot she's a specialist with three wins from six, but Musselburgh is a very different track and today's conditions don't play to her strengths.
Steps up 2 classes
Best career win rate in field (1 in 4)
Why this score
- Has raced 5 times on this ground with a low win rate. Today's ground may not suit it.
- Facing weaker rivals than last time out. When a horse drops to an easier race, it often finds things easier.
- 19 days since the last run. That is a usual break, so there is nothing to read into it.
TrackLab Insight
The most experienced horse in the field alongside Sophiesticate, but with a sobering record: just one win from 48 races, and zero wins in 11 attempts at this course. He's stepping up two class levels today and has never won on anything other than standard ground conditions. Recent form at Perth has been decent — second and third in his last two — but the class rise and track record make it hard to be optimistic.
Steps up 2 classes
Why this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- There is £3,664 in prize money in this race. That attracts good horses, and this one looks to belong among them.
- M. & David Easterby wins only 7.1% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Has been off the track for 292 days — by far the longest absence in the field — and returns with zero wins or places from five career races. A 10-month break is a significant unknown for any horse, especially one that hasn't shown much to date. Unless there's been a dramatic transformation behind the scenes, this looks like a horse needing the run rather than one ready to win it.
Absent 292 days (longest in field)
Why this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- A prize fund of £3,664 is healthy. When trainers aim at valuable races, they usually have faith in their runner.
- E. Whillans has a 7.8% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Ten races into his career and still looking for a first win, with just a single top-three finish to his name across all those outings. His last three runs have all been sixth or seventh, suggesting he's finding this level tough going rather than improving. There is nothing in the data to suggest today changes that picture.
Winless from 10 career races
Why this score
- A low win rate on this ground from 3 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
- Raced just 2 days ago. Running again quickly can show the trainer is happy with the horse, but tiredness is a risk.
- C. Horgan wins 5.3% of their races overall. That is below the average for professional jockeys.
TrackLab Insight
Seven races in with no wins and just one place, and she races again here just two days after finishing fifth at Redcar — a very quick turnaround for a 3-year-old yet to get off the mark. It's also the first time this jockey and trainer have worked together, so there's no established partnership to lean on. Hard to see where the improvement is going to come from on this evidence.
Runs again after just 2 days
Why this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- There is little recent data for The jockey. Without enough rides, it is hard to judge their form.
TrackLab Insight
The lowest-rated horse in the field by some margin — 8lbs below average — and yet Falaise Blanc has finished second in two of its last three races, including a runner-up spot at this very track 21 days ago. The catch is that one career win from 24 races tells you converting those close finishes into wins is the hard part. Has never won at Musselburgh in five attempts, so breaking that duck here would be a surprise.
Lowest rated, 8lbs below average
Why this score
- A low win rate on this ground from 4 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
- The jockey has not had many recent rides, so there is little recent form to go on.
TrackLab Insight
Experienced and consistent enough to place regularly — 14 top-three finishes from 29 races — but those two career wins show how rarely she gets the job done when it matters. She ran fourth at Carlisle just 12 days ago, which at least tells you she's fit and ticking over. This trip suits her well on paper, with a strong record at 1m3f to 1m4f distances, but converting that into a win at this level remains the question.
Among the more experienced (29 career races)
Why this score
- Not enough recent rides for The jockey to judge their form. That is not good or bad news.
TrackLab Insight
Has finished in the top three in three races in a row, which makes her one of the more in-form horses in this field. The big unknown is that she has never raced on dry ground — all her experience has come on softer surfaces — so today's conditions are genuinely uncharted territory for her. At just 9 races old, she's among the least experienced runners here, and how she handles that unknown will tell us a lot.
Never raced on dry ground
3 straight top-3 finishes
Why this score
- Has raced 6 times on this ground with a low win rate. Today's ground may not suit it.
- Not enough recent rides for The jockey to judge their form. That is not good or bad news.
TrackLab Insight
Has four career wins and a solid overall record, but her last six runs show a horse that has gone the wrong way — finishes of fourth, fifth, eighth, ninth, seventh and sixth in that spell. Her wins have come largely at Ayr, not Musselburgh, and her record on dry ground is poor. It's hard to make a case for her right now based on recent form.
Best record on this ground (1 from 6)
Why this score
- This type of ground has not suited the horse: 9 runs without much success. Some horses prefer different ground.
- The jockey has not had many recent rides, so there is little recent form to go on.
TrackLab Insight
The standout course specialist in the field — three wins from just six races at Musselburgh, including a win over this exact course and distance, is a record none of her 11 rivals can match. She also arrives in strong recent form, finishing third in three races in a row including twice at this track in the last month. With 50 career races behind her she's the most battle-hardened runner here, and today's dry conditions are exactly what she needs — all four of her career wins have come on this type of ground.
Only course winner (3 from 6 here)
Has won over this course and distance
Best record at this trip (3 from 6)
Most experienced (50 runs, field avg 21)
Why this score
- The jockey has not had many recent rides, so there is little recent form to go on.
TrackLab Insight
Zero wins and zero top-three finishes from ten career races — the bluntest record in the field. Like Forever Perfect, she has never raced on dry ground before, adding another layer of uncertainty on top of an already difficult profile. A fourth-place finish at this course three weeks ago is the closest thing to encouragement in her recent form, but the overall picture is of a horse still searching for its level.
Never raced on dry ground