Musselburgh
·
EBF Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)
Awaiting result
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.
Our top pick for this race
Very strong chance
Why this score
- A 33.3% win rate at this course for K. Philippart De Foy. Trainers who know a course often send out their horses well suited to it.
- 5 runners today is a good number for this horse. The number of runners affects how a race is run.
- An 8.5% record at this course for R. Scott. Some jockeys just do not do well at some courses.
TrackLab Insight
Both of Iris Olivia's races have been on artificial surfaces indoors, so today's dry turf at Musselburgh is completely new territory — we simply don't know how she'll handle it. Her most recent run was encouraging, finishing a close second at Kempton just 13 days ago, which is a big step up from her debut seventh. With only two races under her belt, she's still learning the job, but that runner-up finish gives her something to build on.
Never raced on dry ground
Lightly raced (2 career races)
Why this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- This is a 5-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
- C. Fellowes has a 0% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Romanza is the highest-rated horse in this field by a clear margin — 7lbs ahead of the next best, which is a meaningful gap at this level. That rating is backed up by a near miss last time out, going down by less than a length at Lingfield just 15 days ago. If that form is the real Romanza, rather than the struggling seventh at Ascot, this is the one all the others need to beat.
Top rated by 7lbs
Lightly raced (3 career races)
Why this score
- 5 runners today is a good number for this horse. The number of runners affects how a race is run.
- S. Mark Prescott Bt has a good 29% record here. A trainer who does well at one course is worth noting.
- There is little recent data for The jockey. Without enough rides, it is hard to judge their form.
TrackLab Insight
Like several rivals here, Sea Idol has only ever raced on artificial surfaces, so today's dry turf is an unknown quantity for this horse. The run before last was a near thing — beaten just a nose at Southwell — but the most recent outing at Lingfield produced a fourth, suggesting some inconsistency at this early stage. Trainer Sir Mark Prescott has a long-standing reputation for placing horses to win at exactly the right moment, which makes Sea Idol worth watching despite the modest stats.
Never raced on dry ground
Lightly raced (2 career races)
Why this score
- 5 runners today is a good number for this horse. The number of runners affects how a race is run.
- Not enough recent rides for The jockey to judge their form. That is not good or bad news.
TrackLab Insight
Skylar has never raced before, so this is a complete unknown — no form, no benchmark, just a first appearance on a racecourse. Making your debut against horses who have already gained race experience is a tough ask, and first-timers at this track win at a relatively low rate. Trainer Charlie Johnston sends out plenty of winners and will know what Skylar is capable of at home, but the rest of us are guessing.
Racecourse debut
Why this score
- 5 runners today is a good number for this horse. The number of runners affects how a race is run.
- The jockey has not had many recent rides, so there is little recent form to go on.
TrackLab Insight
Ten Clarets was beaten by just a third of a length at Ayr 15 days ago — the narrowest losing margin in this field's recent form — suggesting a win is genuinely close. Like two of today's rivals, all of Ten Clarets' racing has been on artificial surfaces, so dry turf at Musselburgh is an open question. If the horse handles today's conditions, that near-miss form makes this a serious contender.
Never raced on dry ground
Lightly raced (2 career races)