Fontwell
·
Gary Wrights Big 40th Birthday Celebration Handicap Hurdle Race
Starts in
13h 5min
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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£1 wins £3.33 · 22 Strong chance
A 25% win rate at this course for K. Bailey & Mat Nicholls
22
Our top pick for this race
Strong chance
Odds 10/3
£1 wins £3.33 · 22 Strong chance
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £4.33 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 25% win rate at this course for K. Bailey & Mat Nicholls. Trainers who know a course often send out their horses well suited to it.
- An 8-runner race works well for this horse. The number of runners changes the pace and how much room a horse has.
- Facing tougher rivals than last time. It is like moving up to a harder league. The step up is a challenge.
TrackLab Insight
The market favourite at 10/3 after consecutive seconds at Warwick earlier in the year, though he's been inactive for 218 days and carries a poor record on good-to-soft ground (0 wins from 4 starts). His single win from six races (17%) is modest, and the long absence raises questions about readiness.
Market favourite (10/3)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £5.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- P. Nicholls has a good 33% record here. A trainer who does well at one course is worth noting.
- Handles this ground well, with 20% of its races won on it. The ground can change a horse's chances a lot.
- The trainer's horses do not always finish their races. That raises questions about fitness and preparation.
TrackLab Insight
A nine-year-old who rarely embarrasses himself but has won just twice from 12 races (roughly 1 in 6), and his recent form shows distance between him and the winner in his last three runs. He does have his best record at this exact distance (1 win from 4 starts), which offers some promise.
Best record at this trip (1 from 4)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £6.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- An 8-runner race works well for this horse. The number of runners changes the pace and how much room a horse has.
- Has run 2 times at this track with no wins yet. Some horses do not take to some courses.
- Facing tougher rivals than last time. It is like moving up to a harder league. The step up is a challenge.
TrackLab Insight
A 10-year-old with three consecutive top-3 finishes, including a win 147 days ago, showing decent form on the right day. His record of roughly one win in five races (21%) is solid for his class, but he has a poor record on good-to-soft ground and struggles on left-handed galloping tracks like Fontwell.
3 straight top-3 finishes
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £6.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- 8 runners today is a good number for this horse. The number of runners affects how a race is run.
- Has had 50 career runs, so it is an experienced racehorse. Experience helps in a tough race.
- This trainer's horses often do not finish their races. That makes them harder to trust.
TrackLab Insight
A Fontwell course specialist with five wins from 12 races here (42%) and three consecutive top-3 finishes including a recent win 45 days ago, making him the most clearly in form. At 50 races, he's by far the most experienced horse in the field and excels on soft ground (4 wins from 10), though the ground here is normal, not soft.
Course specialist (5 wins from 12 here)
Most experienced (50 runs, field avg 19)
3 straight top-3 finishes
2
Lynx de Thaix
£1 wins £6 · 11 Could surprise
With a 17% win rate overall
11
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £7.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- With a 17% win rate overall, G. Sheehan is one of the more dependable riders.
- This is an 8-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
- This trainer's horses often do not finish their races. That makes them harder to trust.
TrackLab Insight
A five-year-old with just two career races and zero wins, making him by far the least experienced runner in the field. He's raced on different ground conditions but never on normal ground before, so this is genuinely new territory—too much uncertainty at this stage of his development.
Never raced on normal ground
Lightly raced (2 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £6.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- An 8-runner race works well for this horse. The number of runners changes the pace and how much room a horse has.
- Today's race is over 2m 3f. That distance looks right for this horse. Running over the right distance matters a lot.
- A 0% record at this course for J. Moore & Josh Moore. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
A four-year-old with the lowest rating and lightest weight in the field, but his recent form is poor (two fifth-place finishes in his last three outings). He does suit long distance racing (40% win rate at 2m+), which fits this trip, but he struggles on right-handed galloping tracks and shows no current momentum.
Lowest rated, 4lbs below average
Carries lowest weight in field
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £23.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 29% win rate on this ground from 7 runs. Just like people, horses have favourite surfaces. This one likes today's ground.
- This is an 8-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
- This trainer's horses often do not finish their races. That makes them harder to trust.
TrackLab Insight
The top-rated horse in the field by 7lbs, but he's been off the track for 386 days and hasn't won in over two years—a long absence that makes any comeback uncertain. He suits this distance well (67% win rate at 1m6f–2m), but his poor record on soft ground (0 wins from 4 starts) is a concern and the market has shown little faith in him.
Top rated by 7lbs
Absent 608 days (longest in field)
Unfancied in the market despite a high rating
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £12.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- An 8-runner race works well for this horse. The number of runners changes the pace and how much room a horse has.
- Today's race is over 2m 3f. That distance looks right for this horse. Running over the right distance matters a lot.
- A 0% record at this course for J. Moore & Josh Moore. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
A genuine Fontwell specialist with three wins from seven races here (43%), and he boasts the best career win rate in the field at 27% (1 in 4 races). However, his most recent run was a distant fifth just 16 days ago at this same track, suggesting current form is well below his best.
Course specialist (3 wins from 7 here)
Best record on this ground (4 from 9)
Best career win rate in field (1 in 4)
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.