Fontwell
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OPC Home Guard Remembrance Handicap Steeple Chase (Fontwell Chase Series Qualifier)
Starts in
11h 39min
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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Our top pick for this race
Strong chance
Odds 11/8
£1 wins £1.38 · 37 Strong chance
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £2.38 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- 7 runners today is a good number for this horse. The number of runners affects how a race is run.
- Last raced 16 days ago. That is a normal gap between runs.
TrackLab Insight
Fresh off a breakthrough win at Fontwell just 16 days ago, Sea Warrior carries the market's confidence at 11/8 as favourite—though the drift from 1/9 suggests some doubt has crept in. This is a horse that has been knocking on the door for months (two third-place finishes and a second in his last six races), and he finally delivered at this track, which gives him a genuine edge over rivals without a recent course victory. The question is whether that win was a one-off or the start of something real; his 12% career win rate suggests he still has to prove consistency.
Market favourite (11/8)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £7.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 7-runner race works well for this horse. The number of runners changes the pace and how much room a horse has.
- Has yet to win over this distance. It is like asking a sprinter to run a marathon. Distance matters, and this horse has not shown it can win here.
- Has had 18 days off since its last race. That is a routine gap that should not help or hurt.
TrackLab Insight
Most experienced horse in the field by a distance (41 races versus a field average of 13), Sanitiser is a consistent operator with a 10% win rate and 19 top-3 finishes to his name—the kind of horse that picks up prizes through nous rather than brilliance. Normal ground suits him well enough, but his complete blank on faster ground (0 wins from 13 starts on good-to-firm or good-to-soft) and struggles on left-handed undulating tracks like Fontwell (0 wins from 7 starts) are significant concerns for this race. The recent run at Bath 18 days ago was a heavy defeat, and he hasn't raced since, which adds uncertainty.
Most experienced (41 runs, field avg 13)
£1 wins £5.50 · 13 Solid chance
This is a 7-runner race, and the size suits this horse
13
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £6.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This is a 7-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- 1 win from 6 runs at this track. When a horse likes a course, it often runs well there again.
TrackLab Insight
One of only two horses in the field with a Fontwell win (his came 224 days ago), Koenigsstern has a genuine course credential that stands out—though that victory remains his only one across 17 races, a barren 15 months ago. The 9-year-old shows a pattern of near-misses (finishing second three times in his last six races) but converting those chances into wins is the problem; at a 6% career win rate, he is well below the standard of this field. Normal ground is acceptable territory for him, but he has struggled badly on sharp, left-handed tracks, and Fontwell's undulating left-hand layout is a natural disadvantage.
One of few course winners (1 wins here)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £7.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- O. Signy has a good 23.1% record here. A trainer who does well at one course is worth noting.
- This is a 7-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
- This trainer's horses often do not finish their races. That makes them harder to trust.
TrackLab Insight
A curious profile: Constantinian finishes in the top 3 in 71% of his races (5 from 7) but has only won once, suggesting a horse that is competitive but rarely dominant at this level. His 14% win rate is reasonable for the field, and normal ground has treated him well (1 win from 4 starts), but the eight-length beating 30 days ago at Worcester is a poor recent reference point and suggests he may be vulnerable. At 6 years old, he is younger than most of his rivals, which could cut either way—more upside potential or simply not yet sharp enough to break through consistently.
Best record on this ground (1 from 4)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £6.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- A Chase Turf race works in this horse's favour. Horses often do best in one type of race and struggle in others.
- Has been off the track for 281 days. That is a long break. Some horses come back fresh. Others need a run to get fit again.
TrackLab Insight
The standout class act here: Mutley Crew has won three from 11 races (27% win rate) and, crucially, is the only horse in the field with a proven winning record over this course and distance (2 wins from 4 at Fontwell). The 10-year-old has had 265 days off (longest absence in the field), which is a significant concern for freshness, but her last two runs before the fall were a win and a 0.1-length second—real evidence of recent quality. Normal ground is neutral for her, and while she excels on heavy ground (2 wins from 3 starts), the extended layoff means the burden of proof is on her to show she hasn't lost any edge.
Course specialist (2 wins from 4 here)
Only winner at this distance
Has won over this course and distance
Absent 265 days (longest in field)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £7.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- This is a 7-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
- 255 days without racing. A long break can be a worry, as it takes time to rebuild fitness.
TrackLab Insight
Still searching for a first career win after six races, Ahanaglogh has shown glimmers of promise—two finished in the top 3 finishes in his last three outings, both very tight margins (1.2L and 9.5L second-place finishes). The 7-year-old carries the lightest weight bar one (148lbs), which is an advantage, and has a strong jockey-trainer partnership behind him (31 wins from 152 races together), yet 255 days have passed since his last run, making his current fitness a real question mark. For a horse without a win to his name, that layoff could be the difference between staying close and falling away.
Top-3 finishes in 2 of last 3 races
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £51.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- A 7-runner race works well for this horse. The number of runners changes the pace and how much room a horse has.
- Has been off the track for 250 days. That is a long break. Some horses come back fresh. Others need a run to get fit again.
TrackLab Insight
Five races in, five runs without a win or a top-3 finish: Glancing Back is the least experienced, worst-rated horse in the field at 33/1, carrying just 142lbs (the minimum weight) but showing no sign of progression. Recent form (10th, 6th, 6th before a fall) confirms a horse that is well below the level of this race, and with 250+ days since meaningful competition and only one jockey-trainer combination win from 21 races, the climb is steep. The hood headgear suggests the trainer is still trying to find answers, but nothing in the data suggests this 6-year-old is ready to trouble the frame.
Lowest rated, 20lbs below average
Carries lowest weight in field
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.