Fontwell
·
KSR Lighting Maiden Hurdle Race (GBB Race)
Starts in
11h 4min
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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Our top pick for this race
Strong chance
Odds 13/8
£1 wins £1.63 · 37 Strong chance
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £2.63 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 16.2% overall win rate for J. Snowden. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- G. Sheehan has won 17% of their races in their career. That steady record counts for a lot.
- Not rated highly by the official rater. The rating reflects what the horse has done so far, and it is modest.
TrackLab Insight
Smokehouse is the market favourite at 7/4 based on a single encouraging debut where he finished second at Southwell, beaten just 0.8L. However, that lone race came on a surface different from normal ground, so there is no evidence of how he will perform on today's conditions, and his 261-day absence is the longest in the field.
Never raced on normal ground
Lightly raced (1 career races)
Absent 261 days (longest in field)
Market favourite (7/4)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £3.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- D. Skelton wins 18.7% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- An 18.9% record at this course for D. Skelton. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
The Mad Poet has shown modest improvement across three races, finishing second in his most recent outing 230 days ago and fifth before that, though all three efforts have come up short of a win. He carries the highest rating on pedigree among the lightly raced runners and is trained by Dan Skelton, a high-volume winning yard, but the long absence and continued winless record remain concerns.
Lightly raced (3 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £7.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- Finishing 2nd last time is encouraging. A horse that finishes well is usually in good shape.
- The official rating suggests this horse has work to do. Lower-rated horses need to improve to win.
TrackLab Insight
Max d'Airy finished a narrow second on his most recent run 206 days ago, his best effort from two career races, so there is evidence of ability if he can recapture that form. The long absence and limited racing history make this a gamble, but the trainer Paul Nicholls is still evaluating what he has, which could work in his favour if conditions suit.
Lightly raced (2 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £7.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- B. Pauling wins 15.2% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- A 15.2% overall win rate for B. Pauling. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- Not rated highly by the official rater. The rating reflects what the horse has done so far, and it is modest.
TrackLab Insight
Without Cause is making his racecourse debut at the notably late age of four, suggesting a deliberate decision to hold him back rather than problems with his preparation. He is by Success Days out of a Zamindar mare, and the Ben Pauling yard have a reasonable record together, but there is no form to assess.
Racecourse debut
£1 wins £11 · 6 Could surprise
A 19.4% win rate at this course for P. Hobbs & Johnson White
6
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £12.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 19.4% win rate at this course for P. Hobbs & Johnson White. Trainers who know a course often send out their horses well suited to it.
- P. Hobbs & Johnson White wins 15.2% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- The official rating suggests this horse has work to do. Lower-rated horses need to improve to win.
TrackLab Insight
Making his racecourse debut with no form to judge yet, Baddy Wood comes from a respectable pedigree by Capri out of a Sulamani mare. The Hobbs and White yard have a decent record together, winning roughly 1 in 7 of their races, so preparation should be sound, but everything hinges on what happens when he steps out for the first time.
Racecourse debut
9
Galante de Vassy
£1 wins £12 · 6 Could surprise
Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice
6
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £13.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- N. Fox wins 21.1% of their races at this course. Knowing the track is an advantage for any jockey.
- Has been off the track for 237 days. That is a long break. Some horses come back fresh. Others need a run to get fit again.
TrackLab Insight
Galante De Vassy is stepping up two classes after finishing fourth at Kempton and has one top-3 finish from two races to her credit, offering a sliver of encouragement. The Tom Symonds yard has a modest record together, and the class jump combined with limited form makes this a significant test.
Steps up 2 classes
Lightly raced (2 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £36.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- J. Moore & Josh Moore wins 14.3% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- J. Moore & Josh Moore wins only 0% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Padel Whacker has raced twice without winning or finishing in the top 3, coming home fifth and sixth respectively over half a year ago. The jockey-trainer pairing is untested together, adding another layer of uncertainty to a horse that has yet to show meaningful progress.
Lightly raced (2 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £101.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- H. Derham has won 21% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- Only 8th last time out. That is not what we want to see before today's race.
TrackLab Insight
King Rolo has raced twice without a win or top-3 finish, beaten heavily at Stratford just 8 days ago and Worcester before that. The yard is keeping him active and searching for the right race, but the evidence so far suggests he is still some way from competing at this level.
Lightly raced (2 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £29.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- A 19.1% overall win rate for F. Gordon. Good jockeys make better decisions during a race.
- Not rated highly by the official rater. The rating reflects what the horse has done so far, and it is modest.
TrackLab Insight
The Drunken Sailor raced at Fontwell 184 days ago and finished sixth, giving him the advantage of course familiarity in a one-race career. The Chris Gordon yard has a solid record, winning roughly 1 in 5 races, but a single unplaced outing provides little to build confidence on.
Lightly raced (1 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £101.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- An 18.7% overall win rate for D. Skelton. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- An 18.7% overall win rate for D. Skelton. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- Came 9th in the last race. It might have been an off day, or the horse may be losing form.
TrackLab Insight
Wet Sail has only one race on record—a ninth-place finish at Worcester 16 days ago—making her form picture extremely thin. She is trained by Dan Skelton, whose yard has been prolific this season with 198 winners, but that single outing offers no evidence of ability at this level or on normal ground.
Never raced on normal ground
Lightly raced (1 career races)
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.