Paul Nicholls

The headline number this season is 91 winners from 497 runners, which works out at roughly 1 in every 5 — an 18% win rate that would be the envy of trainers with twice his experience. That consistency is even more striking when you consider he's been operating for just four years since 2021. Most trainers are still finding their feet at this stage; Nicholls is winning at Cheltenham, Sandown Park and Kempton Park, the venues that define a career in jump racing.

The big-race form is particularly compelling. Three top-level wins in the space of six weeks — at Newbury in late December 2025, Sandown at the end of January 2026, and Newbury again in early February 2026 — suggest a yard that peaks precisely when the calendar demands it. Class 1 races are not flukes. They are the hardest races to win in Britain, and Nicholls has won 87 of them.

The partnership with jockey Harry Cobden is the engine behind much of this success. Forty wins from 224 rides together at an 18% rate tells you this is a combination that works — not just occasionally, but reliably. When Nicholls saddles a horse and Cobden is in the irons, the form says trust it. Elsewhere, the small track at Sedgefield stands out as something of a personal fiefdom: 3 winners from just 5 runners there is a 60% hit rate, suggesting Nicholls reads that course particularly well. And on wet, muddy ground — the kind that sorts horses from pretenders — his yard wins 10 from 34 races, a 29% success rate that is comfortably better than the seasonal average. That is not luck. That is preparation.