Ballinrobe
·
McGrath Limestone Works Handicap Hurdle
Awaiting result
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £5.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- Has an official rating of 125. This is a score from the official rater, and a higher number means a better horse. This horse is rated well.
- A 14-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
The market favourite despite having just one race to its name, Becasse is the least experienced horse in this 14-runner field by some distance. That sole outing was a solid second at Wexford a month ago — a confidence-building run after a 519-day absence — and Henry De Bromhead, a trainer winning 3 from 24 in the last two weeks, clearly thinks this wet Ballinrobe track is the right place for the next step. The significant drift in the market from a very short price is worth noting, though.
Lightly raced (1 career races)
Trainer in best form (3 from 24 last 2wk)
Market favourite (5.5)
£1 wins £5 · 14 Solid chance
Has raced 5 times on this ground with a low win rate
14
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £6.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has raced 5 times on this ground with a low win rate. Today's ground may not suit it.
- Has an official rating of 116. This is a score from the official rater, and a higher number means a better horse. This horse is rated well.
- A 14-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Give Him A Chance won at Naas just over seven weeks ago, showing it is in form, but was then pulled up at Wexford a month ago — the same meeting where Becasse finished second. Its record on soft ground is a blank from five attempts, which is a real problem given today's wet conditions at Ballinrobe. Three career wins is one of the better tallies in this field, but the ground looks set to work against it.
One of the more successful in the field (3 career wins)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £8.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- Has won 1 time over this distance. That is a good sign the race length suits the horse.
- This is a 14-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Like Arch Empire, Frankendael is one of the only course winners in this field, which is a genuine asset at Ballinrobe. The problem is it hasn't been seen on a racecourse for over ten months — the longest absence of any runner apart from Miss Manzor — and its trainer has drawn a blank from six races in the last two weeks. Wins roughly 1 in 5 races across its career, but carrying a hood and a very long layoff into an open field is a big ask.
Has won over this course and distance
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £6.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This type of ground has not suited the horse: 7 runs without much success. Some horses prefer different ground.
- Rated 118 by the official rater. That is a strong number based on past results.
- This is a 14-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Catch The Beast was a close second at Naas just over a month ago, which suggests it is in decent enough nick heading into this. The serious concern is a record of zero wins from eight races on soft or heavy ground — and today is a wet track at Ballinrobe, which falls squarely into that territory. One win from 17 career races is a modest return, and the ground record makes a big swing forward look unlikely.
Among the more experienced (17 career races)
£1 wins £7 · 11 Could surprise
N. C Kelly wins 19.2% of their races at this course
11
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £8.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- N. C Kelly wins 19.2% of their races at this course. Some trainers aim horses at particular tracks, and this one does well here.
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- A 14-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
High Court Cave has the best career win rate in the field, winning roughly 1 in 3 of its races — a noticeably better ratio than most rivals here. It won last time out at Downpatrick before a six-month break, so the rust is a fair concern, but a horse that was winning over hurdles as recently as seven months ago is hardly a spent force at six years old. Trainer and jockey have only combined for one win together from 24 attempts, which tempers the enthusiasm slightly.
Best career win rate in field (1 in 4)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £9.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- C. Collins has not had many runners lately, so their recent form is unclear.
- Has not won at this distance before. We do not know if the race length suits the horse.
- A 14-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Sopelana is one of only two course winners in the field and has shown a genuinely strong record on wet ground — winning 2 from 4 on heavy going and 1 from 4 on soft. Those two factors combined make it one of the most interesting profiles in the race given today's conditions. The horse is only four years old, has been placed in its last two outings, and looks well suited to what's on offer here.
One of few course winners (1 wins here)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £12.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Rated 106 by the official rater. That is a strong number based on past results.
- Rated 12.0 points above the average for this race. On paper, this horse is one of the better runners.
- A 14-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Piccolo Player raced just yesterday — making it by far the most recently run horse in the field — which raises obvious questions about how fresh it can be for this. It has never raced on wet ground before, so today's conditions are a complete unknown. Rated 12 points below the field average, it faces a stiff task even at its best.
Never raced on wet ground
Runs again after just 1 days
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £11.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- An official rating of 124 is in this horse's favour. The rating comes from results, and this horse's number looks good.
- A 14-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
The one big thing in Arch Empire's favour is that it has won over this exact course and distance before — making it one of only two horses in the field who can say that. The concern is everything else: it hasn't run for nearly six months, its last three outings produced a ninth, a fourth and a third, and its record on wet ground is a blank from four attempts. A proven course winner returning rusty on ground it has never handled well.
Has won over this course and distance
£1 wins £12 · 6 Could surprise
An official rating of 121 is in this horse's favour
6
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £13.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- An official rating of 121 is in this horse's favour. The rating comes from results, and this horse's number looks good.
- Results are getting better with each run. A horse on the way up has a good chance of a win soon.
- E. Christopher McCarthy wins only 2.2% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Here's an interesting puzzle: Wholelotofbusiness has never raced on wet ground before, yet today's conditions are exactly that. It ran a solid sequence of three consecutive top-three finishes before a disappointing tenth at Cork twelve days ago, but that reversal came on faster ground — a surface it has never won on. If the wet conditions suit it, this could bounce back sharply; if they don't, it's impossible to say how it will handle them.
Never raced on wet ground
3 straight top-3 finishes
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £21.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- Has not raced for 327 days. That is a long time away, and we cannot be sure the horse will be fit enough.
- 14 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
The longest absence in the entire field — 327 days without a race — makes Miss Manzor a very difficult horse to back with confidence today. Before that gap, the form was heading in the wrong direction: a pulled up run followed by a distant twentieth. One win from nine races overall, and nothing in the recent data to suggest a return to form is imminent.
Absent 327 days (longest in field)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £41.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Handles this ground well, with 29% of its races won on it. The ground can change a horse's chances a lot.
- E. Mullins has a good 19.4% record here. A trainer who does well at one course is worth noting.
- 14 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
Teed Up is the most experienced horse in the field by a considerable margin — 33 races compared to a field average of 14 — and it holds the best record of any runner here on wet ground, winning 2 from 7 on that surface. The distance also suits, with three wins from six races at around this trip. The caveat is a run of poor finishes lately, including two twelfth-place efforts, but the conditions and distance are genuinely in its favour today.
Best record on this ground (2 from 7)
Best record at this trip (3 from 6)
Most experienced (33 runs, field avg 14)
3 straight top-3 finishes
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £34.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- An official rating of 119 is in this horse's favour. The rating comes from results, and this horse's number looks good.
- This type of ground has not suited the horse: 3 runs without much success. Some horses prefer different ground.
- B. Francis Cawley has a 3.8% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Positive Energy is one of the more experienced horses in the field with 16 races under its belt, and its record on heavy, wet ground is genuinely encouraging — winning 1 in 4 on that surface. The trouble is today's conditions are described as wet rather than heavy, and on softer or yielding ground specifically it has never won from four attempts. Returning from a four-month break adds another question mark.
Among the more experienced (16 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £34.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Handles this ground well, with 25% of its races won on it. The ground can change a horse's chances a lot.
- A 7.2% overall win rate for S. O'Keeffe. Good jockeys make better decisions during a race.
- 14 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
Sonny May is a nine-year-old whose recent form makes for grim reading — a pulled up run at Fairyhouse followed by a ninth and a thirteenth before that. It wins roughly 1 in 8 races across its career, and while it has a decent record on soft ground, today's wet conditions are different to the heavy ground it has struggled on. Hard to make a case for this one on current evidence.
Among the more experienced (16 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £41.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- Rated 105 by the official rater. That is a strong number based on past results.
- N. Lee wins 5.6% of their races overall. That is below the top trainers.
TrackLab Insight
She Is Electric carries the lowest weight in the field and is rated 13 points below the field average — the biggest gap of any runner here. At eleven years old and returning from a 278-day absence that followed a pulled up run, the form profile is not encouraging. There is nothing in the recent data to suggest a competitive effort is likely today.
Lowest rated, 13lbs below average
Carries lowest weight in field
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.