Ballinrobe
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BOYLE Sports Supporting Irish Racing Mares Handicap Hurdle
Awaiting result
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £5.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 2m 6½f race suits this horse well. When a horse is comfortable with the distance, it can settle into a good rhythm.
- Rated 116 by the official rater. That is a strong number based on past results.
- J. Patrick Baragry wins 8.3% of their races overall. That is below the top trainers.
TrackLab Insight
The market has sent this horse off as favourite, but there's a significant question hanging over her: she has never raced on wet ground before, and today's conditions are exactly that. Three straight third-place finishes show she's consistent, but she's also never won on a right-handed track in six attempts — and Ballinrobe is one. There's plenty working against her today despite the market confidence.
Never raced on wet ground
3 straight top-3 finishes
Market favourite (5.0)
17
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £5.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- There is little recent data for C. Collins's stable. It is hard to judge their current form.
- 2m 6½f is a good distance for this horse. Over its best distance, it can run its own race.
- C. Collins has a 7.2% overall win rate, which is on the low side. That may mean the horse is not at its best.
TrackLab Insight
Fresh off a win at Fairyhouse just 12 days ago, this horse arrives in the best recent form in the field and has a solid record on soft, wet ground. The jockey-trainer combination has won 2 from just 4 races together, which is a healthy ratio. Coming in on the back of a victory with proven wet-ground form makes her one of the more interesting challengers here.
Best record on this ground (1 from 3)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £6.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- An official rating of 117 is in this horse's favour. The rating comes from results, and this horse's number looks good.
- D. O'Keeffe has a 9.9% overall win rate, which is lower than we would like to see. A jockey who wins less often can hold back even a good horse.
TrackLab Insight
The standout on paper: the only horse in this field to have won at Ballinrobe, and the only one proven at this distance — two boxes no rival can tick. She wins roughly 1 in every 4 races, the best win rate in the field, but she hasn't run in over five months and has never won on truly wet ground. If she's come back fresh and ready, she's the one to beat; if the long break has left her short, that mud record becomes a real concern.
Only course winner (1 from 1 here)
Only winner at this distance
Best career win rate in field (1 in 4)
Jockey in best form (2 from 14 last 2wk)
£1 wins £7 · 12 Solid chance
Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice
12
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £8.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- Has yet to win over this distance. It is like asking a sprinter to run a marathon. Distance matters, and this horse has not shown it can win here.
- G. Cromwell has a 6.9% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Three consecutive top-three finishes had built real momentum for this horse, but a distant 10th at Cork last month was a jarring step back. Carrying the second-highest weight in the field, she arrives rated 12lbs above the average — a mark that reflects past ability but also makes life harder. The wet ground suits based on her record, but she needs to explain away that Cork flop.
3 straight top-3 finishes
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £6.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- A 2m 6½f race suits this horse well. When a horse is comfortable with the distance, it can settle into a good rhythm.
- This trainer's horses often do not finish their races. That makes them harder to trust.
TrackLab Insight
The editorial verdict flags this horse as potentially dangerous: she bolted up in a flat race on very wet ground, suggesting today's conditions are right in her wheelhouse, and she arrives on a mark that could be kind on her first run in this type of race. Two thirds in her last two outings show she's running consistently. The low weight and unexplored potential in this format make her worth watching.
Placed in 2 of last 3 races
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £6.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This horse runs well on today's ground, with a 20% win rate from 5 runs. The ground makes a big difference in racing.
- P. J. Rothwell has won 5.3% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- A 10-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
The most experienced horse in the race alongside the veteran runners, with 12 career races under her belt, but only 1 win to show for it — roughly 1 in every 12 outings. She has a decent record on soft ground and has been finishing fourth or third consistently of late, but consistent near-misses without a win is a pattern that's hard to ignore. Good each-way material perhaps, but not an obvious winner.
Among the more experienced (12 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £12.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- J. Kennedy wins 17.6% of all their races. That is a strong record. A jockey who wins often gives a horse a better chance.
- Has not raced for 362 days. That is a long time away, and we cannot be sure the horse will be fit enough.
TrackLab Insight
This horse has been off the track for nearly a full year — longer than any other runner in this field — which is a major question mark no matter how talented she might be. Her last two runs before the break were distant eighths, and the single career win came over a year ago. Carrying a lighter weight helps, but the extended absence makes her very hard to trust.
Absent 362 days (longest in field)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £19.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This type of ground has not suited the horse: 3 runs without much success. Some horses prefer different ground.
- Rated 95 by the official rater. That is a strong number based on past results.
- N. Lee wins 5.6% of their races overall. That is below the top trainers.
TrackLab Insight
With 28 career races, this is one of the most experienced horses in the field, but experience hasn't translated into wins — just 2 from 28, or roughly 1 in every 14 outings. More damningly, she has never won on wet or soft ground across 10 attempts, and she's never won at Ballinrobe in seven tries. Those are three overlapping red flags for today's race.
One of the more successful in the field (2 career wins)
£1 wins £28 · 2 Long shot
Has raced 3 times on this ground with a low win rate
2
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £29.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has raced 3 times on this ground with a low win rate. Today's ground may not suit it.
- Has been off the track for 175 days. That is a long break. Some horses come back fresh. Others need a run to get fit again.
- P. M O'Brien wins 6.6% of their races overall. That is below the average for professional jockeys.
TrackLab Insight
The most experienced horse in the field by a distance — 29 races — but with just 1 win to show for it, a win rate of around 3%. She carries the lightest weight today, which is the one small advantage, but she has never won on wet, soft, or yielding ground in 15 combined attempts, and her last run was a distant 11th. The weight break is real, but the evidence against her winning today is overwhelming.
Lowest rated, 14lbs below average
Carries lowest weight in field
Most experienced (29 runs, field avg 13)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £101.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A low win rate on this ground from 6 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
- A 2m 6½f race suits this horse well. When a horse is comfortable with the distance, it can settle into a good rhythm.
- A 4.3% career win rate for J. G Gilligan. That is on the low side and could matter today.
TrackLab Insight
A pulled-up run at Limerick just 17 days ago is deeply worrying, and her last recorded win was over three years ago — the data paints a bleak picture. On top of that, she has never won on soft or wet ground in six attempts, which is exactly what she faces today. Hard to make a case for her with any confidence given the available evidence.
One of the more successful in the field (2 career wins)
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.