Ballinrobe
·
Lodge At Ashford Castle Handicap Hurdle
Awaiting result
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
18+ | Gamble responsibly: BeGambleAware.org Ad: we earn commission if you join a bookmaker via our links.
Our top pick for this race
Strong chance
Odds 3/1
£1 wins £3 · 22 Strong chance
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £4.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- Today's race is over 2m 6½f. That distance looks right for this horse. Running over the right distance matters a lot.
- A 14-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
The market has made this the favourite at 4.0, which is a significant vote of confidence, but the recent form makes that trust hard to understand — three consecutive runs without threatening the leaders, and now returning after six months off. Crucially, his one career win came on fast, dry ground, and today's wet conditions look like the opposite of what he wants. Gordon Elliott trains him, and the yard has been ticking along, but this horse has plenty to prove.
Trainer in best form (3 from 55 last 2wk)
Market favourite (4.0)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £7.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- There is £7,068 in prize money in this race. That attracts good horses, and this one looks to belong among them.
- This is a 14-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
The editorial pick, and the ground data backs it up — Sky And Sand won at Gowran Park in wet conditions last month, and his record on heavy or muddy ground reads one win from three tries, which is the best wet-ground conversion rate among the fancied runners. He is lightly raced with only seven career outings, so there is still room for improvement, and today's conditions look tailor-made. The question is whether he can replicate that Gowran form on a different track.
Relatively inexperienced (7 career races)
6
It's Never Simple
£1 wins £5.50 · 13 Solid chance
Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice
13
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £6.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- Has won 1 time over this distance. That is a good sign the race length suits the horse.
- A 14-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
The standout fact here is that It's Never Simple is the only horse in this field with a proven win at this distance of two miles and six furlongs — that specific experience matters in a staying hurdle. He also wins roughly 1 in every 5 races, the joint-best win rate in the field alongside Lissen To The Lady, and his heavy-ground record shows a win from three tries. The concern is a four-month absence since that last win at Punchestown.
Only winner at this distance
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £8.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A low win rate on this ground from 5 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
- B. Connell wins 36.4% of their races at this course. Some trainers aim horses at particular tracks, and this one does well here.
- This is a 14-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Priced at 8.0, Low Style is among the more fancied runners, but the ground record is a glaring issue — he has never won on soft or heavy ground across eight tries, which is a serious concern given today's wet conditions. His last run was a distant ninth at Thurles, beaten nearly 68 lengths, which is hard to overlook regardless of any excuses. The odds feel generous for a horse whose profile suggests today's ground is likely to work against him.
Among the fancied runners (8.0)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £11.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This type of ground has not suited the horse: 3 runs without much success. Some horses prefer different ground.
- 2m 6½f is a good distance for this horse. Over its best distance, it can run its own race.
- A 14-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Johnny Cakes carries the lowest weight in the field, which in a handicap is a genuine advantage as it means the handicapper rates him below his rivals — he gets a head start on the scales. His heavy-ground record is the best of any horse in this race at this price, with one win from nine tries in wet conditions showing he can handle the mud better than most. The form line from Fairyhouse two months ago, where he was beaten less than three lengths into third, is also worth holding onto.
Carries lowest weight in field
£1 wins £10 · 7 Could surprise
Has raced 6 times on this ground with a low win rate
7
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £11.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has raced 6 times on this ground with a low win rate. Today's ground may not suit it.
- 2m 6½f is a good distance for this horse. Over its best distance, it can run its own race.
- 14 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
What Mi Lucky Cailin lacks in career headlines she partly makes up for in wet-ground form — she has won on both soft and muddy ground, and with today's conditions firmly in that territory, the ground at least suits her. Jockey Darragh O'Keeffe is the best-performing rider in this field over the last two weeks, winning 2 from 14, which is worth noting. That said, she has never won on a galloping track, and this is a big field to navigate.
Best record on this ground (1 from 6)
Jockey in best form (2 from 14 last 2wk)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £13.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- Has an official rating of 109. This is a score from the official rater, and a higher number means a better horse. This horse is rated well.
- A 14-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Thirteen races into his career and still waiting for a first win — Jerk is the least successful horse in this field by some distance, with just one minor placing to his name from all those attempts. He pulled up last time out and has fallen and finished last in two of his three most recent runs. The odds drifting from near-evens to 13.0 tells you everything about how the market views his chances here.
Winless from 13 career races
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £15.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- 2m 6½f is a good distance for this horse. Over its best distance, it can run its own race.
- Rated 105 by the official rater. That is a strong number based on past results.
- A 4.3% career win rate for J. G Gilligan. That is on the low side and could matter today.
TrackLab Insight
With only eight races under her belt, Survivors Sister is one of the least experienced horses in this 14-runner field. She did win at Limerick two months ago, which showed she can get the job done, but she pulled up at Fairyhouse on her very next run, making that form hard to trust. She's relatively unexposed but the inconsistency is a concern.
Relatively inexperienced (8 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £13.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A low win rate on this ground from 5 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
- Today's race is over 2m 6½f. That distance looks right for this horse. Running over the right distance matters a lot.
- 14 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
Rated 11 pounds below the field average, Without Exception is officially the lowest-rated horse in the race, which means he enters with a weight advantage but also reflects where the assessor thinks he belongs. He has one win from 16 races and has never won on soft or heavy ground despite six attempts in wet conditions. Honest enough in his running, but the wet ground record and low rating make this a tough ask.
Lowest rated, 11lbs below average
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £23.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- Rated 95 by the official rater. That is a strong number based on past results.
- H. Paul Finegan wins only 0% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Lady Bluebird actually has a solid record on heavy ground — winning once from four attempts, a 25% return — which makes her quietly relevant in today's wet conditions. The problem is that her last six runs have all been finishes of fifth or worse, suggesting she is not in the form of her life right now. At 23.0, she is a long shot, but the ground at least suits her better than several of her rivals.
One of the more successful in the field (2 career wins)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £17.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Today's race is over 2m 6½f. That distance looks right for this horse. Running over the right distance matters a lot.
- Finished 0th in the last race, which is a good result. A good last run suggests the horse is in good shape.
- P. Cronin has a 0% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
The best career win rate in the field — winning roughly 1 in every 5 races — and a stunning record on heavy ground: three wins from just five tries in the mud, which is a 60% return that no other runner here comes close to matching. At 12 years old she is the oldest horse in the race, but when the ground gets wet she clearly comes alive in a way most of these rivals simply do not. She is a genuine each-way contender on ground conditions alone.
Best career win rate in field (1 in 5)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £26.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- 2m 6½f is a good distance for this horse. Over its best distance, it can run its own race.
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- A 0% career win rate for Mr O. T. Gilligan. That is on the low side and could matter today.
TrackLab Insight
The longest absence in the field by some margin — Bobbysingindablues has not raced for over eight months, which is a significant ask in a competitive 14-runner event. Seven career races, zero wins, and a recent string of seventh-place finishes paint a picture of a horse that struggles to make an impact even when fit. Coming back after that kind of break with this record makes it very difficult to make a case.
Absent 260 days (longest in field)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £34.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This type of ground has not suited the horse: 3 runs without much success. Some horses prefer different ground.
- 2m 6½f is a good distance for this horse. Over its best distance, it can run its own race.
- A 14-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
At ten years old, Free Flowing is the oldest horse in this field, and the data does him no favours in today's conditions — he has failed to win in five attempts on wet ground and three on soft, making the wet forecast a real problem. His only career win came over two years ago, and nothing since has come close. At 34.0, the market agrees there is little here to get excited about.
Outsider at 34.0
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £51.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 2m 6½f race suits this horse well. When a horse is comfortable with the distance, it can settle into a good rhythm.
- I. Madden wins 3.0% of their races at this course. Some trainers aim horses at particular tracks, and this one does well here.
- P. Cleary wins 3.5% of their races overall. That is below the average for professional jockeys.
TrackLab Insight
Brave Crogha is one of the more experienced horses here with 16 career races, but the numbers tell a sobering story — one win, and that came on fast ground, while his record on wetter surfaces is poor. His last three runs have seen him finish 9th, 15th, and 9th, and he returns here after five months off. It is very hard to find reasons to be optimistic.
Among the more experienced (16 career races)
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.