Ballinrobe
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Tim Kelly (C & G) Maiden Hurdle
Awaiting result
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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Our top pick for this race
Strong chance
Odds 7/4
£1 wins £1.75 · 25 Strong chance
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £2.75 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- J. Kennedy wins 17.6% of all their races. That is a strong record. A jockey who wins often gives a horse a better chance.
- Came home 2nd last time out. A good recent run often carries over to the next race.
- An 18-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
The market favourite and the editorial pick as the most likely winner, Master Haku has run twice and placed both times — second on its most recent outing at Cork, beaten just a fifth of a length. That near-miss shows a horse on the cusp of winning, not one that is simply making up the numbers. The key unknown is that it has never raced on wet ground, and it returns from a four-month break — if it handles both, this is the one to beat.
Never raced on wet ground
Lightly raced (2 career races)
Market favourite (2.75)
24
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £4.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- An average finish of 2 over the last three races. Finishing near the front this often is a good sign.
- An 18-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Still winless from five races, but Bulgaden Castle has finished in the top three in its last three outings — twice beaten less than a length — which suggests a horse that is knocking hard on the door. The big question is whether it can finally convert that consistency into a win, because a placed rate of 80% without a victory is the mark of a horse that tries without quite delivering. If it ever does break through, a race like this makes sense.
3 straight top-3 finishes
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £5.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 25% win rate on this ground from 4 runs. Just like people, horses have favourite surfaces. This one likes today's ground.
- J. Patrick O'Brien has won 13.8% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- An 18-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Five wins from 19 races makes Small Fry one of the more accomplished horses in this field, and a Class 2 win at Epsom — one of Britain's most prestigious tracks — shows this horse has competed at a genuinely high level. The concern is two modest efforts at Dundalk since that peak, plus a return from nearly five months off. Talented, but needs to prove it is back to its best.
One of the more successful in the field (5 career wins)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £9.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Finished 1st in the last race, which is a good result. A good last run suggests the horse is in good shape.
- A 9.9% overall win rate for J. Gainford. Good jockeys make better decisions during a race.
- 18 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
A perfect record of one race, one win sounds impressive — but one race is barely enough to know anything meaningful about a horse. It has never raced on wet ground, which is a genuine unknown today, and it is returning from seven months off. Interesting on paper, but there are too many question marks.
Never raced on wet ground
Lightly raced (1 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £10.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has yet to win over this distance. It is like asking a sprinter to run a marathon. Distance matters, and this horse has not shown it can win here.
- With an average finish of 4 in recent runs, this horse keeps finishing close to the front. It would not need much luck to win.
- This is an 18-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
An eight-year-old that has never raced on wet ground — a significant unknown on a day like today at Ballinrobe. Its best efforts have come on softer, yielding conditions, so there is an argument it might handle the wet, but that has never been tested. Recent form shows a second place followed by two fifths, which paints a picture of a horse that can get close but rarely gets the job done.
Never raced on wet ground
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £21.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Came home 2nd last time out. A good recent run often carries over to the next race.
- D. Meyler has won 8.2% of their races in their career. That steady record counts for a lot.
- An 18-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
The best career win rate in the entire field — winning roughly one in every three races — but the catch is that Persian Bliss has never raced on wet ground, and all its best form has been built at Dundalk on a very different surface. Today's conditions at Ballinrobe are completely uncharted territory for this horse. The jockey is in red-hot form, winning five from 12 in the last two weeks, but the ground question is real.
Never raced on wet ground
Best career win rate in field (1 in 3)
Jockey in best form (5 from 12 last 2wk)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £21.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- B. Connell wins 36.4% of their races at this course. Some trainers aim horses at particular tracks, and this one does well here.
- S. Flanagan has won 7.9% of their races in their career. That steady record counts for a lot.
- 18 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
Stepping onto a racecourse for the very first time today, Cullagh Lad is a complete unknown — there is no form, no finishing positions, nothing to go on beyond what the yard knows from home. The jockey-trainer combination has won together 14 times from 96 races, which shows they work well enough, but a debut in an 18-runner field on wet ground is a tough ask. One to watch rather than back.
Racecourse debut
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £51.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- With a 16.7% win rate overall, Mr E. M. Nugent is one of the more dependable riders.
- N. F. Glynn wins only 0% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
One win from 13 races tells you this is a horse that has taken its time to deliver, and a six-month absence only adds to the uncertainty. The one positive on a day like this is that its best form has come on fast, dry ground — the opposite of what it faces here in the wet at Ballinrobe. Hard to make a case for this one.
Among the more experienced (13 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £51.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Handles this ground well, with 25% of its races won on it. The ground can change a horse's chances a lot.
- An experienced horse with 38 career runs. Experienced horses tend to be steadier and less likely to run badly.
- This is an 18-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
By far the most experienced horse in the field with 38 races under its belt — the average here is around nine — and it does at least have a record of performing on wet ground, winning one from four on similar conditions. The problem is recent form: 11th last time out, and a pattern of finishing mid-pack rather than threatening the front. Experience counts for something, but this needs more than that.
Best record on this ground (1 from 4)
Most experienced (38 runs, field avg 9)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £101.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- J. Patrick Ryan wins 6.6% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- With a 2.4% win rate overall, B. Barry is one of the more dependable riders.
- B. Barry wins 2.4% of their races overall. That is below the average for professional jockeys.
TrackLab Insight
Two races, zero wins, zero placed finishes, and a gap of nearly a full year since it last ran — this is the longest absence in the field. It has also never raced on wet ground. There is almost nothing in the form book to suggest this horse is ready to trouble the leaders today, and the odds of 101 reflect that reality honestly.
Never raced on wet ground
Lightly raced (2 career races)
Absent 365 days (longest in field)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £81.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- M. Michael McNiff has not had many runners lately, so their recent form is unclear.
- 18 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
One race, one tenth-place finish — beaten nearly 60 lengths — and that is all we have to go on for Cloonbonniffe. It is hard to build any kind of case on data that thin, and that debut performance gave no encouragement. The trainer has had one winner from one run in the last two weeks, which is a slender positive, but this horse needs to show a great deal more.
Lightly raced (1 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £67.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- Last raced 42 days ago. That is a normal gap between runs.
- D. Broad wins 3.7% of their races overall. That is below the top trainers.
TrackLab Insight
Winless from 13 races, and recent form shows finishes of 7th, 14th, and 11th — this is a horse that has drifted away from the places it occasionally threatened earlier in its career. It has also never won at Dundalk in eight attempts there, and the current trajectory points in the wrong direction. Difficult to find reasons to be optimistic here.
Winless from 13 career races
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £101.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- The 4yo+, C & G entry rules work in this horse's favour. A well-chosen race suggests a trainer with a plan.
- 18 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
Six years old and just one race to its name — a sixth-place finish beaten 67 lengths at Limerick. That is a very sparse CV and the one result we have offers no encouragement. Like several others here, there is simply not enough information to make a meaningful assessment, and the form that does exist is poor.
Lightly raced (1 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £67.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- There is £7,068 in prize money in this race. That attracts good horses, and this one looks to belong among them.
- Starting from a good position. On some tracks, starting on one side can save ground.
- B. Francis Cawley wins only 3.8% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
A first-time runner with no form to assess — everything about how this horse will perform is unknown until it crosses the line today. Trained by Brian Francis Cawley, who has produced three winners from 13 races with this jockey, but that is a slim thread to hang a case on. Debut runners in big fields on wet ground face long odds for good reason.
Racecourse debut
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £51.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- D. O'Keeffe wins 9.9% of all their races. That is a strong record. A jockey who wins often gives a horse a better chance.
- Today's ground is Soft, and that suits this horse. Like athletes who prefer one type of surface, horses have favourite ground.
- This is an 18-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Another first-time racer, stepping out for the first time at four years old with no form whatsoever to analyse. The jockey-trainer combination has yet to win together from 11 attempts, which does not inspire confidence. In a field of 18, a complete unknown with no previous run is a very difficult proposition.
Racecourse debut
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.