Flat race · weights set to make it fairVery underrated horse: Hammer The Hammer +2About 6 furlongsStandard all-weather surfaceMid-level race14 runners£9,631 prize money
Tapeta surface
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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+Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
+A 25% win rate at this course for R. Beckett. Trainers who know a course often send out their horses well suited to it.
−14 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
The market favourite at 5/1, Bolo Neighs carries only an 11% win rate from 18 races and has not won in five months despite running regularly. He showed promise with a recent 4th at Kempton, but a harsh 17th at Ascot 29 days ago suggests his form is fragile, and the favourite status appears driven by recent activity rather than evidence of imminent success.
+Wins 33% of the time on this type of ground. Some horses run much better on soft or firm ground. This one suits today's ground.
+An 8.7% overall win rate for R. Scott. Good jockeys make better decisions during a race.
−R. Scott wins only 13.6% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
So Darn Hot won twice on standard ground surfaces (Lingfield and Newcastle, both Class 2) and carries a solid 22% win rate, but he has managed only one top-3 finish in his last three races, most recently 11th at Haydock 35 days ago. Recent form does not support the editorial assessment, and at 14/1, he looks fairly priced for a horse out of sorts.
+Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
+W. Haggas wins 19.7% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
−This is a 14-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Another Abbot has his best record at this trip (2 wins from 5 races at 6 furlongs), suggesting distance suitability, but recent form is poor—16th at Ascot 29 days ago after a narrow 2nd at Yarmouth. At 18/1, he represents an overlooked option if he can reverse a recent downward spiral, though the evidence for a quick turnaround is thin.
+Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
+Finishing 2nd last time is encouraging. A horse that finishes well is usually in good shape.
−A 14-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Kind Touch has finished 2nd three races running—at Wolverhampton 12 days ago, Ripon 35 days ago, and Ripon 60 days ago—showing he is competitive but unable to convert pressure into wins. At 11/2, the market is pricing in this consistency, but a 3-year-old with just one win in eight races remains unreliable at a decisive moment.
+Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
+E. Dunlop wins 25% of their races at this course. Some trainers aim horses at particular tracks, and this one does well here.
−A 14-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Starmade drops two classes from his usual level and carries the value label Underrated, suggesting our model rates him higher than the 13/1 price implies. His 25% win rate (2 from 8) is strong for a 3-year-old, though recent form has stalled—8th and 10th in his last two runs over 64 days—and the extended absence raises freshness questions despite official data showing him active.
+Dropped to an easier race today. It is like being the big fish in a smaller pond. The lower standard should suit.
+An 11.3% win rate at this course for L. Edmunds. Jockeys who know a track well can pick the best ground and time their run.
−J. Camacho wins only 0% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Indian Run has never raced on normal ground, so this represents genuine unknown territory for a horse whose three career wins came at Class 1 and Class 2 level on different surfaces. Three straight top-3 finishes show he is in the zone, but an untested surface and an ineffective jockey-trainer combo (0 wins from 25 races) muddy the picture considerably.
Never raced on normal ground3 straight top-3 finishes
+Results are getting better with each run. A horse on the way up has a good chance of a win soon.
+No wins at this distance yet. We cannot tell if the race is too long, too short or just right.
−E. Bethell has a 0% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Atomic Force has drifted significantly in the market (17/1 from 1/9) despite a strong record on this surface—2 wins from 6 races on standard ground, well above his 12% overall win rate. He has strung together three straight top-3 finishes at Chester before a disappointing run at Doncaster 49 days ago, so readiness is a question mark after the seven-week gap.
Best record on this ground (2 from 6)3 straight top-3 finishes
+Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
+M. Bell wins 12.8% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
−The Standard ground does not suit this horse. The wrong ground can turn a contender into an also-ran.
TrackLab Insight
Caballo Grande has the best career win rate in the field at 40% (2 from 5 races), but he has been off the track for 177 days—longer than any other runner here—and his last three races show clear deterioration ending in a 34-length defeat. An exceptional record on paper cannot overcome such a long absence and recent poor form.
Has won over this course and distanceAbsent 177 days (longest in field)Best career win rate in field (1 in 2)
+Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
+Dropped to an easier race today. It is like being the big fish in a smaller pond. The lower standard should suit.
−A 0% record at this course for R. Cowell. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Purosangue has won only twice in 28 races (7% win rate) and has deteriorated recently—5th, 9th, 9th across his last three starts—making him one of the least in-form runners here. Despite carrying a top-3 rating in the editorial preview (98), his actual evidence does not justify anything more than a speculative interest at 16/1.
+This horse runs well on today's ground, with a 33% win rate from 3 runs. The ground makes a big difference in racing.
+With a 9.5% win rate overall, D. Hogan is one of the more dependable riders.
−M. Herrington wins only 0% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Evening Blues carries the lowest weight in the field (126lbs) but owns only a 12% win rate from 12 races and has won just once—a breakthrough at Dundalk in November. Three straight top-3 finishes look solid until you see he was only 3rd at Leicester 83 days ago before collapsing to 18th at York; the wins are not coming.
Carries lowest weight in field3 straight top-3 finishes
+A low win rate on this ground from 3 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
+Facing weaker rivals than last time out. When a horse drops to an easier race, it often finds things easier.
−J. Camacho wins only 0% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Desert Falcon's career win rate of roughly 1 in 4 races (6 from 25) ranks among the best in the field, yet he has drifted to 22/1 and carries a poor record on standard ground—0 wins from 3 starts at this course. His recent form is underwhelming (17th, 6th, 9th), and a high rating alone does not guarantee a return to form after seven weeks away.
+A 32% win rate on this ground from 22 runs. Just like people, horses have favourite surfaces. This one likes today's ground.
+Has raced here 2 times without winning. This course has not suited the horse so far.
−A 3.4% record at this course for L. Perratt. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
The most experienced runner at 50 races, The Caltonian boasts an exceptional 32% win rate on standard ground (7 from 22) but has struggled badly away from Newcastle—his home track where he has won 6 of 20 races. Away from Tyneside, he has won just once in 30 races, making this a significant disadvantage despite the favourable ground.
+Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
+Has won at this distance 3 times before. A horse that has shown it can last the trip is a plus.
−A 7.1% record at this course for P. Midgley. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Novello Lad is lowest-rated by some margin (82, six pounds below field average) and has lost his way entirely in recent weeks—17th, 14th, 6th across his last three starts. While he showed form at Doncaster previously (3 wins from 12 races there), current evidence points to a horse in decline rather than one ready to turn a corner at 33/1.
Trainer J. Camacho: wins 0% of runners (last 14 days)
Age 6, weight 9st 10lb, official rating 92
The Caltonian (no. 8)
Jockey K. O'Neill: wins 0% of rides (last 14 days)
Trainer L. Perratt: wins 0% of runners (last 14 days)
Age 7, weight 9st 7lb, official rating 89
Novello Lad (no. 14)
Jockey O. McSweeney: wins 0% of rides (last 14 days)
Trainer P. Midgley: wins 0% of runners (last 14 days)
Age 5, weight 9st 0lb, official rating 82
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance 20–39 Strong chance 12–19 Solid chance 6–11 Could surprise Under 6 Long shotScores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
Underrated horse
We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
Our top pick
The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
TrackLab Score
Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
Ground
How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
Race level (Class)
From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
Group, Grade and Listed
The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
Handicap
The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
Maiden
A race for horses that haven't won yet.
Novice
A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
Chase, hurdle and bumper
Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
Distance (m and f)
m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
Each way
A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
Weight
How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
Jockey claim
An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
Headgear
Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.
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TrackLab