Awc Finals Day At Newcastle 26th March Ebf "confined" Restricted Maiden Stakes (for Horses In Bands B, C And D With No More Than Three Runs) (GBB Race)
+Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
+R. Varian wins 25.2% of their races at this course. Some trainers aim horses at particular tracks, and this one does well here.
−R. Varian wins only 25.2% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
The market favourite at 11/8 has run twice and finished second just 14 days ago, then fourth before that—showing some ability but unable to break through. Roger Varian's yard is in prolific form with 87 winners this season, and the horse gets a low draw (4) which historically favours winners at this track. Still, with zero wins from two races and a drifting price from 1/10, there's no guarantee the next step comes here.
Lightly raced (2 career races)Market favourite (11/8)
+P. J. McDonald has won 11.3% of their races in their career. That steady record counts for a lot.
+With £4,320 in prize money, this is a competitive race. The horse has been entered for a reason.
−A 0% record at this course for G. Oldroyd. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
A racecourse debut with nothing to go on except bloodline: his sire Havana Grey was an electric two-year-old sprinter, which could suggest some speed inherited. Beyond that, there's no data—just potential and P.J. McDonald's partnership with the trainer winning roughly 1 in 5 times.
+R. Hughes has won 13.1% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
+A 21.7% win rate at this course for R. Hughes. Trainers who know a course often send out their horses well suited to it.
−R. Hughes has a 21.7% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Making a racecourse debut means there is nothing concrete to assess yet—just breeding and potential. The Richard Hughes yard has sent out 65 winners this season and the jockey-trainer pairing has won roughly 1 in 6 races together, but a debut on a synthetic surface is a genuine unknown.
+Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
+A. Kirby has won 12.2% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
−This is a 2yo race, and the entry rules are not a natural fit. Sometimes horses end up in races that do not quite suit them.
TrackLab Insight
Has built a pattern of top-3 finishes from two races—second at Brighton 16 days ago and third before that—which is exactly what you want to see from a young horse building experience. The low draw (2) helps at this track, but he's still winless and narrowly missed in both outings, so the breakthrough hasn't arrived yet.
+J. Owen has a good 23.2% record here. A trainer who does well at one course is worth noting.
+H. Doyle has won 13.2% of their races in their career. That steady record counts for a lot.
−This horse is not suited by Standard ground. The ground can change a horse's chances a lot.
TrackLab Insight
Just one race under his belt—a fifth-place finish at Kempton 19 days ago—and has never raced on normal ground before, making this unfamiliar territory. The step up in experience should help, but there's very little form to build an argument on here.
Never raced on normal groundLightly raced (1 career races)
+Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
+A. Rawlinson has won 10.2% of their races in their career. That steady record counts for a lot.
−A 5.7% record at this course for M. Appleby. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Making his debut from draw 1—a low draw that statistically favours winners at this track—but like all debutants, there's no form to work with. The trainer Michael Appleby has a strong record at roughly 1 in 10 winners with this jockey, but this remains a shot in the dark.
+A 13.9% overall win rate for M. Ghiani. Good jockeys make better decisions during a race.
+With £4,320 in prize money, this is a competitive race. The horse has been entered for a reason.
−A 6.2% record at this course for O. Cole. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Making her debut with a pedigree built for early speed: by the quick sire Harry Angel out of a Bertolini mare. This is a first racecourse appearance, so there's nothing concrete yet, and the jockey-trainer pairing has no previous record together.
+Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
+There is £4,320 in prize money in this race. That attracts good horses, and this one looks to belong among them.
−B. Smart has a 5% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Three races without a win or a top-3 finish is a poor trend for a two-year-old: seventh, ninth, then fifth most recently across 45 days. The form is moving in the wrong direction, and there's nothing in the record to suggest a turnaround is coming.
+An 11.9% overall win rate for J. Hart. Good jockeys make better decisions during a race.
+J. & Sean Quinn wins 10.7% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
−Today's ground is Standard, and that is not ideal. A horse on the wrong ground can run much worse.
TrackLab Insight
A racecourse debut from the Quinn brothers' yard, which has won roughly 1 in 9 races with this jockey pairing. No form, no previous experience—just untested potential from a low draw (3) that should help at Southwell.
+Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
+A prize fund of £4,320 is healthy. When trainers aim at valuable races, they usually have faith in their runner.
−A 0% record at this course for D. Cunha. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Made her debut 23 days ago and finished tenth, beaten over 24 lengths—a heavy defeat that offers little encouragement. The high draw (10) is historically the poorest at this track, and with just one poor race on the board, there's limited reason for optimism.
Lightly raced (1 career races)
Full stats
Palms Oasis (no. 1)
Jockey R. Coakley: wins 0% of rides (last 14 days)
Trainer R. Varian: wins 0% of runners (last 14 days)
Age 2, weight 9st 7lb, official rating 72
Bondy Boy (no. 4)
Jockey P. J. McDonald: wins 0% of rides (last 14 days)
Trainer G. Oldroyd: wins 0% of runners (last 14 days)
Trainer D. Cunha: wins 0% of runners (last 14 days)
Age 2, weight 8st 13lb
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance 20–39 Strong chance 12–19 Solid chance 6–11 Could surprise Under 6 Long shotScores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
Underrated horse
We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
Our top pick
The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
TrackLab Score
Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
Ground
How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
Race level (Class)
From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
Group, Grade and Listed
The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
Handicap
The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
Maiden
A race for horses that haven't won yet.
Novice
A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
Chase, hurdle and bumper
Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
Distance (m and f)
m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
Each way
A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
Weight
How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
Jockey claim
An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
Headgear
Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.
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