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Southwell

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Aw Trails Day - Lingfield 2nd Jan 2027 Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)
Awaiting result
Flat race · no jumps About 1 mile Standard all-weather surface Standard race 9 runners £5,400 prize money
Tapeta surface
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score

Very strongStrongSolidCould surpriseLong shot

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Bet £1, get £2.50 back if it wins

  • Won 0 of its last 5 races
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £2.50 back.

How odds work
Why this score
  • Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
  • S. Crisford has a good 25.6% record here. A trainer who does well at one course is worth noting.
  • Has had 29 days off since its last race. That is a routine gap that should not help or hurt.
TrackLab Insight
Fresh from a respectable second-place debut 29 days ago at Newcastle, this filly has the backing of one of Britain's most dominant training operations (Crisford) and the talented Hollie Doyle in the saddle. The market has backed her in heavily despite minimal racing experience, but there is real substance here: a polished debut run and a yard in red-hot form this season. She remains unproven under competitive pressure, but the setup and the initial impression suggest genuine potential.
Lightly raced (1 career races) Market favourite (11/8)

Bet £1, get £3.75 back if it wins

  • Its first race in 421 days
  • Won 0 of its last 5 races
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £3.75 back.

How odds work
Why this score
  • Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
  • A 26.9% win rate at this course for J. & Thady Gosden. Trainers who know a course often send out their horses well suited to it.
  • 421 days without racing. A long break can be a worry, as it takes time to rebuild fitness.
TrackLab Insight
The most experienced pairing in the race—Robert Havlin and the Gosden team have partnered for 172 wins from 871 races—yet this filly remains winless from three attempts despite two top-three finishes. Most concerning is the recent unfinished run 29 days ago at Newcastle, which breaks the pattern of consistent placing and suggests something may not be quite right. She has form but no breakthrough, and that lack of a win from three races is a notable gap to overcome.
Lightly raced (3 career races)

Bet £1, get £5.50 back if it wins

  • Wearing cheekpieces (sheepskin that helps it focus)
  • Won 0 of its last 5 races
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £5.50 back.

How odds work
Why this score
  • Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
  • A prize fund of £5,400 is healthy. When trainers aim at valuable races, they usually have faith in their runner.
  • H. Al Jehani has a 0% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
The top-rated runner in the field by 3 pounds, Star Mirage has shown consistent form across seven races with five top-three finishes and a second place just over a week ago, but remains winless. The strength of recent form (two placings in the last three races) suggests momentum, yet the seven-race record without a victory indicates she may have a ceiling at this level. Marco Ghiani rides her for the first time, which removes one variable of continuity despite her proven track record elsewhere.
Top rated by 3lbs

Bet £1, get £8.50 back if it wins

  • Its first ever race
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £8.50 back.

How odds work
Why this score
  • A 19.4% overall win rate for O. Burrows. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
  • An 11.9% overall win rate for J. Hart. Good jockeys make better decisions during a race.
  • Today's ground is Standard, and that is not ideal. A horse on the wrong ground can run much worse.
TrackLab Insight
Racecourse debut for a filly by Starman with solid bloodlines, but Owen Burrows' stable has no track record yet with this jockey Jason Hart. Without any prior form, she represents pure uncertainty—the pedigree is respectable but pedigree alone does not win races, and she will be racing against several rivals with at least one competitive outing under their belts. First-time out runners often improve from debut, but they also often need that first run to learn.
Racecourse debut

Bet £1, get £14.00 back if it wins

  • Wearing cheekpieces (sheepskin that helps it focus)
  • Its first race in 184 days
Won 0 of its last 5 races
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £14.00 back.

How odds work
Why this score
  • A low win rate on this ground from 3 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
  • This is a 9-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
  • Stepping up to a harder race today. As with any step up, the question is whether the horse is good enough for this level.
TrackLab Insight
Four races, four second-place finishes—a form line that defies the usual patterns of racing. This filly has been absent for 184 days and returns looking for her first victory, but the consistency of those near-miss results suggests she is genuinely competitive at this level, not just lucky to be finished in the top 3. The gap between potential and results is narrowing (beaten by just 1.0L at Chelmsford), and the race experience is well above most of her rivals here.
Absent 184 days (longest in field)

Bet £1, get £41.00 back if it wins

  • Won 0 of its last 5 races
  • Has raced at this course before
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £41.00 back.

How odds work
Why this score
  • Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
  • A 28.6% win rate at this course for S. bin Suroor. Trainers who know a course often send out their horses well suited to it.
  • An 11.3% record at this course for K. Stott. Some jockeys just do not do well at some courses.
TrackLab Insight
Finished fourth at Southwell just 21 days ago in her debut, beaten 13 lengths—a significant margin that raises questions about whether this filly is at the right level yet. Trained by the respected Saeed bin Suroor, whose yard has already sent out 15 winners this season, but the trainer-jockey partnership (Stott) has won only 3 times from 31 races together. The experience of Southwell and this course may help, but the opening run suggests there is considerable work ahead.
Lightly raced (1 career races)

Bet £1, get £301.00 back if it wins

  • Won 0 of its last 5 races
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £301.00 back.

How odds work
Why this score
  • There is £5,400 in prize money in this race. That attracts good horses, and this one looks to belong among them.
  • W. Carson has won 8.0% of their races in their career. That steady record counts for a lot.
  • G. Arnolda has a 0% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Only one race on the clock and it was a fifth-place finish 19 days ago at Kempton—a difficult platform to build from. This is the first time the filly will race on normal ground; her debut came on different conditions, making it hard to read where she truly stands. The quick turnaround suggests the trainer saw something worth building on, but with so little form to work with and an unfamiliar track condition here, significant improvement is needed.
Never raced on normal ground Lightly raced (1 career races)

Bet £1, get £41.00 back if it wins

  • Its first ever race
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £41.00 back.

How odds work
Why this score
  • H. Palmer has won 14.4% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
  • An 8.7% overall win rate for R. Scott. Good jockeys make better decisions during a race.
  • A 0% record at this course for H. Palmer. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Making her racecourse debut with a pedigree that carries genuine racing quality—both sire and dam's bloodline have proven track record at top level. However, debut form is always uncertain, and Hugo Palmer's record with this jockey pairing has not yet produced winners from their races together. She is stepping into a field where several rivals have already experienced race conditions, giving those rivals a natural advantage despite her solid breeding credentials.
Racecourse debut

Bet £1, get £1001.00 back if it wins

  • Won 0 of its last 5 races
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1001.00 back.

How odds work
Why this score
  • J. R. Jenkins has won 7.2% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
  • This is a 9-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
  • J. R. Jenkins wins only 9.1% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Two races without a win or a place, with finishes of fifth and sixth in her most recent outings—the widest losing margins of any runner here. This will be her first attempt on normal ground (both prior runs were on different conditions), which could offer an excuse for the poor form, but the distances beaten are substantial. The trainer-jockey pairing has a concerning record with no wins from 23 races together, and there is little evidence here to suggest an improvement is imminent.
Never raced on normal ground Lightly raced (2 career races)
Full stats
  • Always Sunny (no. 1)
    Jockey H. Doyle: wins 0% of rides (last 14 days)
    Trainer S. Crisford: wins 0% of runners (last 14 days)
    Age 3, weight 9st 2lb
  • Maneuver (no. 6)
    Jockey R. Havlin: wins 0% of rides (last 14 days)
    Trainer J. & Thady Gosden: wins 0% of runners (last 14 days)
    Age 3, weight 9st 2lb
  • Star Mirage (no. 8)
    Jockey M. Ghiani: wins 0% of rides (last 14 days)
    Trainer H. Al Jehani: wins 0% of runners (last 14 days)
    Age 3, weight 9st 2lb, official rating 78
  • Merveilleux Rousse (no. 7)
    Jockey J. Hart: wins 0% of rides (last 14 days)
    Trainer O. Burrows: wins 0% of runners (last 14 days)
    Age 3, weight 9st 2lb
  • Baandee (no. 2)
    Jockey J. Callan: wins 0% of rides (last 14 days)
    Trainer J. Morland: wins 0% of runners (last 14 days)
    Age 3, weight 9st 2lb, official rating 75
  • Light Snowfall (no. 5)
    Jockey K. Stott: wins 0% of rides (last 14 days)
    Trainer S. bin Suroor: wins 0% of runners (last 14 days)
    Age 3, weight 9st 2lb
  • Espressona Signora (no. 3)
    Jockey W. Carson: wins 0% of rides (last 14 days)
    Trainer G. Arnolda: wins 0% of runners (last 14 days)
    Age 3, weight 9st 2lb
  • Francesca's Dream (no. 4)
    Jockey R. Scott: wins 0% of rides (last 14 days)
    Trainer H. Palmer: wins 0% of runners (last 14 days)
    Age 3, weight 9st 2lb
  • Tilsworth Emma (no. 9)
    Jockey O. Carmichael: wins 0% of rides (last 14 days)
    Trainer J. R. Jenkins: wins 0% of runners (last 14 days)
    Age 3, weight 9st 2lb
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance 20–39 Strong chance 12–19 Solid chance 6–11 Could surprise Under 6 Long shot Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.

What these words mean

Underrated horse
We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
Our top pick
The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
TrackLab Score
Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
Ground
How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
Race level (Class)
From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
Group, Grade and Listed
The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
Handicap
The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
Maiden
A race for horses that haven't won yet.
Novice
A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
Chase, hurdle and bumper
Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
Distance (m and f)
m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
Each way
A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
Weight
How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
Jockey claim
An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
Headgear
Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.
More at Southwell on Saturday ?