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Southwell

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Handicap Stakes
Awaiting result
Flat race · weights set to make it fair Underrated horse: Guernsey Angel +1 About 5 furlongs Standard all-weather surface Grassroots race 7 runners £3,768 prize money
Tapeta surface
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score

Very strongStrongSolidCould surpriseLong shot

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Bet £1, get £4.00 back if it wins

  • Has won at this course over this distance
  • Won 0 of its last 5 races
Has won at this course onceHas done well on this kind of groundHas won over this distance twice
Underrated horse

We think it's more likely to win than the odds suggest, so if it wins, it pays more than it should. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £4.00 back.

How odds work
Why this score
  • D. Evans wins 9.7% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
  • 7 runners today is a good number for this horse. The number of runners affects how a race is run.
  • Has won 1 time at this course from 4 runs. A horse that has won here before may like the course.
TrackLab Insight
Guernsey Angel is the favourite at 4/1 and showed near-miss form when finishing just half a length behind at Southwell four weeks ago. However, the 3-year-old hasn't won in six races since December 2025 and carries the highest weight in the field, which could work against her on this tight sprint.
Market favourite (4/1)

Bet £1, get £4.33 back if it wins

  • Has won at this course over this distance
  • Won 1 of its last 5 races
Has won at this course 4 timesHas won on this kind of groundHas won over this distance 3 times
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £4.33 back.

How odds work
Why this score
  • 7 runners today is a good number for this horse. The number of runners affects how a race is run.
  • An 8.6% overall win rate for R. Bowring. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
  • R. Bowring has a 2.6% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Toptime is one of only two course specialists with four wins at Southwell from 17 attempts, and won here just eight days ago before finishing 5th on the same course last week. The 8-year-old knows this track well and suits sprint distances, but his inconsistency in recent weeks—mixing wins, top-3 finishes and well-beaten runs—makes him unpredictable.
One of few course winners (4 wins here)

Bet £1, get £9.50 back if it wins

  • Won 1 of its last 5 races
  • Has done well on this kind of ground
Has won over this distance twice
Underrated horse

We think it's more likely to win than the odds suggest, so if it wins, it pays more than it should. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £9.50 back.

How odds work
Why this score
  • A 7-runner race works well for this horse. The number of runners changes the pace and how much room a horse has.
  • A 9.1% overall win rate for T. Carroll. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
  • This is a 3yo+ race, and the entry rules are not a natural fit. Sometimes horses end up in races that do not quite suit them.
TrackLab Insight
Midnight Call stands out with a career win rate of roughly 1 in 4 races, and holds the best record on this surface (6 wins from 16) and distance (2 wins from 4). The 5-year-old has won at Wolverhampton regularly but last raced poorly, finishing 5th at Bath just over three weeks ago, suggesting recent form may be wavering.
Best record on this ground (6 from 16) Best record at this trip (2 from 4) Best career win rate in field (1 in 4)

Bet £1, get £8.00 back if it wins

  • Wearing blinkers (a hood that helps it focus)
  • Won 1 of its last 5 races
Has raced at this course beforeHas won over this distance once
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £8.00 back.

How odds work
Why this score
  • Facing weaker rivals than last time out. When a horse drops to an easier race, it often finds things easier.
  • A. Mullen has a good 50% record here. Knowing the course is one of a jockey's biggest strengths.
  • D. Cunha has a 0% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Noelies Dream won just once in eight races and hasn't shown consistency since that breakthrough last November. With only one top-3 finish in seven attempts after that win, the 3-year-old lacks the form needed to threaten here despite drawing a favourable low stall.
Relatively inexperienced (8 career races)

Bet £1, get £10.00 back if it wins

  • Won 1 of its last 5 races
  • Has raced at this course before
Has won over this distance once
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £10.00 back.

How odds work
Why this score
  • Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
  • A 7-runner race works well for this horse. The number of runners changes the pace and how much room a horse has.
  • S. Hanlon wins only 4.2% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Hi Lord won at Bath three weeks ago but runs hot and cold, managing just three wins from 20 races overall. He has a glaring weakness on standard ground—zero wins from three attempts—which is a significant concern at Southwell on normal conditions.
2nd highest rated (OR 64)

Bet £1, get £21.00 back if it wins

  • Wearing a tongue strap (helps its breathing)
  • Won 0 of its last 5 races
Has raced at this course before
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £21.00 back.

How odds work
Why this score
  • A low win rate on this ground from 4 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
  • 7 runners today is a good number for this horse. The number of runners affects how a race is run.
  • J. Ryan has a 0% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Aleppo Pepper is a 4-year-old without a win from six races and rated 7lbs below the field average, though she carries the lowest weight as compensation. Recent form shows promise with a 4th-place finish just 11 days ago, but she lacks the proven ability of her rivals at this level.
Lowest rated, 7lbs below average Carries lowest weight in field
Full stats
  • Guernsey Angel (no. 4)
    Jockey M. Ghiani: wins 0% of rides (last 14 days)
    Trainer D. Evans: wins 0% of runners (last 14 days)
    Age 3, weight 9st 6lb, official rating 62
  • Toptime (no. 5)
    Jockey L. Edmunds: wins 0% of rides (last 14 days)
    Trainer R. Bowring: wins 0% of runners (last 14 days)
    Age 8, weight 9st 6lb, official rating 62
  • Popular Dream (no. 6)
    Jockey J. Mason: wins 0% of rides (last 14 days)
    Trainer D. Shaw: wins 0% of runners (last 14 days)
    Age 6, weight 9st 4lb, official rating 60
  • Midnight Call (no. 3)
    Jockey H. Doyle: wins 0% of rides (last 14 days)
    Trainer T. Carroll: wins 0% of runners (last 14 days)
    Age 5, weight 9st 7lb, official rating 63
  • Noelies Dream (no. 1)
    Jockey A. Mullen: wins 0% of rides (last 14 days)
    Trainer D. Cunha: wins 0% of runners (last 14 days)
    Age 3, weight 9st 9lb, official rating 65
  • Hi Lord (no. 2)
    Jockey C. Whiteley: wins 0% of rides (last 14 days)
    Trainer S. Hanlon: wins 0% of runners (last 14 days)
    Age 4, weight 9st 8lb, official rating 64
  • Aleppo Pepper (no. 7)
    Jockey J. Callan: wins 0% of rides (last 14 days)
    Trainer J. Ryan: wins 0% of runners (last 14 days)
    Age 4, weight 8st 12lb, official rating 54
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance 20–39 Strong chance 12–19 Solid chance 6–11 Could surprise Under 6 Long shot Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.

What these words mean

Underrated horse
We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
Our top pick
The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
TrackLab Score
Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
Ground
How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
Race level (Class)
From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
Group, Grade and Listed
The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
Handicap
The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
Maiden
A race for horses that haven't won yet.
Novice
A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
Chase, hurdle and bumper
Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
Distance (m and f)
m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
Each way
A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
Weight
How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
Jockey claim
An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
Headgear
Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.
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