+M. Tregoning wins 14.5% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
+A 6-runner race works well for this horse. The number of runners changes the pace and how much room a horse has.
−Has won here 1 time in 1 visit. That record at this course is a good sign.
TrackLab Insight
Neswick won here just three weeks ago and has strung together three straight top-3 finishes, showing the form of a horse genuinely improving at the right time. His 5/4 odds reflect market confidence, backed by a 1-in-5 career win rate and a perfect recent record on standard ground at this track. At only three years old with limited racing experience, he represents a horse still maturing but clearly capable of competing at this level.
Best record on this ground (1 from 3)3 straight top-3 finishesMarket favourite (5/4)
+Has not won at this distance before. We do not know if the race length suits the horse.
+This is a 6-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
−F. Bramley has a 0% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Chambers won here just yesterday and raced again only two days earlier at the same track, showing genuine recent form after breaking through twice in his last six races. His 1-in-7 career win rate is modest, and he carries the lowest rating in the field, but back-to-back Southwell victories in two days suggest he has found form that suits this surface. The quick turnaround is unusual and may either indicate preparation for this race or raise questions about his physical readiness.
Lowest rated, 5lbs below averageRuns again after just 2 days
+No wins at this distance yet. We cannot tell if the race is too long, too short or just right.
+C. Johnston wins 12.3% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
−Has won 2 times at this course from 6 runs. A horse that has won here before may like the course.
TrackLab Insight
Spirit of Jura has won roughly 1 in 5 races across her career and owns the best record on this track with 2 wins from 6 starts here—a genuine course specialist. However, she's now gone 13 months without a victory and finished 6th at Southwell just three weeks ago, suggesting recent form has deserted her despite her historical strength on this ground and distance. The drift from 3/10 to 12/1 reflects the market's concerns about her current trajectory.
Course specialist (2 wins from 6 here)Best career win rate in field (1 in 5)
+A low win rate on this ground from 4 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
+This is a 6-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
−A 5.7% record at this course for M. Appleby. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
New Bay Star is winless from 11 races despite carrying the lightest weight in the field and finishing 2nd on one occasion, leaving him searching for a breakthrough at three years old. His last three runs have brought 7th, 7th and 10th place finishes, indicating current form has moved away from his only top-3 effort, and racing again after just five days at a track where he finished 7th suggests the the yard are keen to find a winning opportunity quickly. The data is thin and the evidence of capability limited.
Carries lowest weight in fieldRuns again after just 5 days
+A low win rate on this ground from 20 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
+This is a 6-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
−A 2.6% record at this course for J. Ramsden. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Sisterandbrother is a battle-hardened 8-year-old with 55 races under his belt and a 1-in-6 win rate, embodying consistency over a long career rather than current form. He finished 2nd here just three weeks ago, missing by less than a length, but this masks a troubling detail: he has yet to win in 12 attempts at Southwell despite being a course regular. The 3/1 odds seem generous given his poor recent record on standard ground and his age working against him.
+A 20% win rate on this ground from 5 runs. Just like people, horses have favourite surfaces. This one likes today's ground.
+A 6-runner race works well for this horse. The number of runners changes the pace and how much room a horse has.
−A 0% record at this course for J. Thomas Coulson. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Midnight Rumble has won just once in 27 races and hasn't broken the tape since June 2024—a four-month drought that tells you everything about his struggles at this level. His last three runs have brought 6th, 13th and 3rd place finishes, with the two most recent races showing significant beatings (38 and 60+ lengths), making a turnaround here highly unlikely. The 70-day absence before his last run, combined with a poor record on anything but standard ground, leaves little to work with.
2nd highest rated (OR 74)
Full stats
Neswick (no. 3)
Jockey A. Lewis: wins 0% of rides (last 14 days)
Trainer M. Tregoning: wins 0% of runners (last 14 days)
Age 3, weight 9st 8lb, official rating 73
Chambers (no. 5)
Jockey H. Vigors: wins 0% of rides (last 14 days)
Trainer F. Bramley: wins 0% of runners (last 14 days)
40+ Very strong chance 20–39 Strong chance 12–19 Solid chance 6–11 Could surprise Under 6 Long shotScores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
Underrated horse
We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
Our top pick
The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
TrackLab Score
Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
Ground
How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
Race level (Class)
From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
Group, Grade and Listed
The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
Handicap
The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
Maiden
A race for horses that haven't won yet.
Novice
A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
Chase, hurdle and bumper
Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
Distance (m and f)
m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
Each way
A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
Weight
How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
Jockey claim
An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
Headgear
Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.
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