Nottingham

Seventeen races and still no win — yet this horse has finished in the top three eleven times, so it keeps finding a way to be competitive without ever quite getting over the line. Three consecutive runner-up or third-place finishes coming in, including two seconds at Newmarket and Yarmouth, show it is bang in form. The big question is whether it can finally convert that consistency into a first career win.

The market has made this the favourite despite the horse never having won in six races, which tells you punters have spotted something the form book hasn't fully shown yet. That something is likely the eye-catching third at this course 46 days ago — the editorial verdict specifically flagged it as a horse that "caught the eye" on its debut for the current trainer. No wins yet, but the market rarely lies at this level.

This horse has been absent for 221 days — the longest layoff in the entire field — and returned with a tame ninth at Newbury on its comeback run, beaten 15 lengths. The jockey-trainer combination here has yet to win together in eight attempts, which adds another layer of concern. Dropping in class makes sense on paper, but there are far more obvious contenders in this race.

The best career win rate in the field — winning roughly one in every four races — but there is a serious catch: Star Time has never raced on normal ground conditions before, so today is an unknown test. There is also a gap of over 18 months since the last win, and the form in between has been patchy. Real ability on paper, but too many question marks to make it a straightforward case.