Newton Abbot
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Thankyou & Farewell Dr. Tim Tilsley Open Maiden National Hunt Flat Race (Category 3 Elimination) (GBB Race)
Starts in
14h 49min
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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Our top pick for this race
Strong chance
Odds 15/8
£1 wins £1.88 · 26 Strong chance
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £2.88 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- D. Skelton wins 18.7% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- D. Skelton wins 24.4% of their races at this course. Some trainers aim horses at particular tracks, and this one does well here.
- A 24.4% record at this course for D. Skelton. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Making his racecourse debut with no prior form to assess, so this is a first look at what he can do against proper opposition. He comes from Dan Skelton's Alcester yard, which has already sent out 198 winners this season—a remarkable win rate that suggests strong preparation standards. The jockey-trainer combination has 544 wins from 2,523 races together, one of the most experienced partnerships in this field.
Racecourse debut
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £4.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 27.6% win rate at this course for H. Fry. Trainers who know a course often send out their horses well suited to it.
- H. Fry has won 20% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- The official rating suggests this horse has work to do. Lower-rated horses need to improve to win.
TrackLab Insight
The market favourite at 5/2, but has yet to get off the mark after two races, both ending without a top-3 finish; the most recent was a fourth-place effort just over a month ago. This horse has never raced on slightly soft ground and remains winless after limited exposure. Harry Fry's yard has 25 winners this season, but Par Avion hasn't been part of that success story yet.
Never raced on slightly soft ground
Lightly raced (2 career races)
Market favourite (5/2)
20
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £5.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- O. Murphy has won 18.8% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- O. Murphy has a good 23.9% record here. A trainer who does well at one course is worth noting.
- The trainer's horses do not always finish their races. That raises questions about fitness and preparation.
TrackLab Insight
A 4-year-old making his racecourse debut with no previous form to examine. By Order Of St George out of a Holy Roman Emperor mare, he carries decent breeding credentials. Trainer Olly Murphy at Wilmcote has a strong record with 326 wins from 1,314 races alongside jockey Sean Bowen.
Racecourse debut
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £9.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- With a 10.4% win rate overall, B. Powell is one of the more dependable riders.
- J. Tizzard wins 14.4% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- The official rating suggests this horse has work to do. Lower-rated horses need to improve to win.
TrackLab Insight
Making his racecourse debut as a 4-year-old—older than most first-time runners in this field, which sometimes suggests he needed extra time to develop. By Walk In The Park, a sire known for producing consistent performers, out of a Lauro mare, his pedigree hints at both speed and stamina. We'll only know what his extra development time means once racing begins.
Racecourse debut
£1 wins £7.50 · 9 Could surprise
Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice
9
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £8.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- B. Clarke wins 31.2% of their races at this course. Some trainers aim horses at particular tracks, and this one does well here.
- Has not raced for 248 days. That is a long time away, and we cannot be sure the horse will be fit enough.
TrackLab Insight
The only runner in this field with a top-3 finish to her name—a narrow second at Hereford 248 days ago—though she has yet to win from two races. She has been absent longest in the field and returns after an eight-month break, which may or may not have sharpened her up. At 7/1, she is shorter in the market than most of the debuts, suggesting some confidence she can build on that second-place run.
Lightly raced (2 career races)
Absent 248 days (longest in field)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £11.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- F. O'Brien wins 21.6% of their races at this course. Some trainers aim horses at particular tracks, and this one does well here.
- F. O'Brien has won 15.9% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- F. O'Brien has a 21.6% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
At five years old, she is stepping onto the racecourse for the first time—unusually late for a maiden runner and suggesting she may have taken longer to mature. By Passing Glance out of a Supreme Leader mare, she comes from sound racing stock, though her actual ability on the track remains entirely unknown. Fergal O'Brien's Gloucestershire yard has sent out 90 winners this season, showing strong form.
Racecourse debut
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £26.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 9-runner race works well for this horse. The number of runners changes the pace and how much room a horse has.
- This horse is happy on Good To Soft ground. When the ground suits, a horse can run to its best.
- Not rated highly by the official rater. The rating reflects what the horse has done so far, and it is modest.
TrackLab Insight
Making his racecourse debut with no previous form to judge, so this is a complete unknown in terms of racing ability. Trainer Syd Hosie has sent out 8 winners this season from his Dorset yard, suggesting he knows how to get horses ready for their first race. The odds have drifted from 1/8 to 25/1, indicating little confidence from the market.
Racecourse debut
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £36.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Mr H. Crow wins 45.5% of all their races. That is a strong record. A jockey who wins often gives a horse a better chance.
- This is a 9-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
- The trainer's horses do not always finish their races. That raises questions about fitness and preparation.
TrackLab Insight
Has just one race under his belt—a fourth-place finish at Newton Abbot 138 days ago—and has never raced on slightly soft ground like today's conditions. With such limited experience, this horse remains largely an unknown quantity. Trainer Alan Jones's yard has produced four winners this season, but Let's Have A Drink hasn't contributed to that tally yet.
Never raced on slightly soft ground
Lightly raced (1 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £151.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- An 11.4% overall win rate for C. Honour. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- Not rated highly by the official rater. The rating reflects what the horse has done so far, and it is modest.
TrackLab Insight
Made her debut just 18 days ago at Chepstow, finishing eighth—a heavy defeat, beaten nearly 59 lengths, that suggests she had significant work to do. One race tells you almost nothing about a horse's potential, and at 125/1 the market has shown little interest in backing her for improvement here. No wins or top-3 finishes yet from that single outing.
Lightly raced (1 career races)
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.