Newton Abbot
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Passage House Hotel South Devon Gateway Handicap Hurdle Race (Challenger Two Mile Hurdle Series Qualifier)
Starts in
13h 17min
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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Our top pick for this race
Strong chance
Odds 11/4
£1 wins £2.75 · 21 Strong chance
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £3.75 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- An 18.8% overall win rate for O. Murphy. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- Has been off the track for 523 days. That is a long break. Some horses come back fresh. Others need a run to get fit again.
TrackLab Insight
The favourite at 4/1 hasn't raced in 310 days, but arrives with the strongest credentials in the field: a 29% win rate and a victory at Worcester last May suggest real ability rather than a fluke. The big question mark is whether ten months off the track will blunt that form — Sean Bowen and Olly Murphy have a strong record together, which counts in its favour.
Best career win rate in field (1 in 4)
Market favourite (4/1)
£1 wins £5 · 15 Solid chance
A 25% win rate at this course for P. Hobbs & Johnson White
15
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £6.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 25% win rate at this course for P. Hobbs & Johnson White. Trainers who know a course often send out their horses well suited to it.
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- The trainer's horses do not always finish their races. That raises questions about fitness and preparation.
TrackLab Insight
Western Cross just landed its first win at Exeter 204 days ago after three earlier top-3 finishes, and at 9/2 it sits second in the betting. A 33% win rate on good ground is a genuine strength, though this surface is slightly soft, and the gap between that breakthrough and today remains a concern after six months away.
2nd in the market (9/2)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £7.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- A 24.4% win rate at this course for D. Skelton. Trainers who know a course often send out their horses well suited to it.
- The trainer's horses do not always finish their races. That raises questions about fitness and preparation.
TrackLab Insight
A 4-year-old with zero wins from four races stepping up three classes is a gamble, and the recent form of 9th, 19th, and 19th offers little encouragement. That said, the Skelton team's formidable record (544 wins from 2523 races) and the horse's wind surgery plus headgear changes suggest they are trying to unlock something; the profile is too thin to have confidence.
Steps up 3 classes
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £6.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 22.1% win rate at this course for A. Honeyball. Trainers who know a course often send out their horses well suited to it.
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- A 22.1% record at this course for A. Honeyball. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Marhaba Prince is the standout form horse here: two wins and five top-3 finishes from seven races (29% win rate) and a 50% success rate on soft ground make it tailor-made for these conditions. A pulled-up finish at Hexham 179 days ago is the only blemish on an otherwise stellar record of consistency and reliability at this level.
One of the more successful in the field (2 career wins)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £9.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- A 12.3% overall win rate for C. Gordon. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- This trainer's horses often do not finish their races. That makes them harder to trust.
TrackLab Insight
General Briar has won twice from eight races and finds its level in Class 4, where it wins roughly half the time — solid credentials at this grade. The worry is a complete blank on good ground (0 wins from 3 starts), and with slightly soft conditions forecast, the turf could be turning in its favour; equally, the recent pulled-up finishes at Plumpton and Sandown suggest some inconsistency.
One of the more successful in the field (2 career wins)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £12.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has raced 5 times on this ground with a low win rate. Today's ground may not suit it.
- 9 runners today is a good number for this horse. The number of runners affects how a race is run.
- Stepping up to a harder race today. As with any step up, the question is whether the horse is good enough for this level.
TrackLab Insight
Eton Mes has won twice from ten races but flatters to deceive: it holds a 0% record in Class 4 company (zero wins from five attempts), and that is a hard ceiling to ignore. A recent fifth at Exeter (beaten 33 lengths) and a blank on good-to-soft ground add to the sense this horse is out of its depth at this level.
One of the more successful in the field (2 career wins)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £12.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- Came home 1st last time out. A good recent run often carries over to the next race.
- Has not raced for 600 days. That is a long time away, and we cannot be sure the horse will be fit enough.
TrackLab Insight
In Limbo is the only horse in the field with a proven two-mile win, but that success came 600 days ago and the horse has been off the track for 387 days — the longest absence in the field by far. A 25% win rate across just four career races is modest, and the scale of the layoff makes this a high-risk proposition.
Only winner at this distance
Absent 600 days (longest in field)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £9.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This type of ground has not suited the horse: 4 runs without much success. Some horses prefer different ground.
- F. O'Brien wins 21.6% of their races at this course. Some trainers aim horses at particular tracks, and this one does well here.
- Has not raced for 523 days. That is a long time away, and we cannot be sure the horse will be fit enough.
TrackLab Insight
Rock On Cowboy returns from 310 days off (matching All Well And Good) with a thin record: one win and five top-3 finishes from nine races, and zero wins on good-to-soft ground. The long absence, modest win rate, and ground profile all point to a horse struggling to find form at this level.
Mid-range in the market (8/1)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £13.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- Has an official rating of 98. This is a score from the official rater, and a higher number means a better horse. This horse is rated well.
- A 3.6% record at this course for Mrs C. Williams. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Sioux Falls is the lowest-rated runner in the field (13lbs below average) and carries the lowest weight, but has yet to win from six races; recent form of 7th, 7th, and 7th underlines a horse with real difficulties at this grade. The jockey-trainer pairing is also meeting for the first time, which adds another layer of uncertainty.
Lowest rated, 13lbs below average
Carries lowest weight in field
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.