Newton Abbot
·
St. Austell Brewery Novices' Hurdle Race (GBB Race)
Starts in
11h 49min
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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Our top pick for this race
Very strong chance
Odds 4/11
£1 wins 36p · 66 Very strong chance
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.36 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- An 18.7% overall win rate for D. Skelton. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- 4 runners today is a good number for this horse. The number of runners affects how a race is run.
- Not rated highly by the official rater. The rating reflects what the horse has done so far, and it is modest.
TrackLab Insight
Vango Can Go is the only course winner in the field and has finished in the top 3 in all three career races, including a Class 1 third at Ascot and a win at Southwell 348 days ago — evidence of consistent quality at a higher level. However, the horse has never raced on slightly soft ground, and a recent eighth at Cheltenham suggests form may have dipped since that Southwell breakthrough.
Never raced on slightly soft ground
Lightly raced (3 career races)
Market favourite (4/11)
£1 wins £4 · 21 Strong chance
This is a 4-runner race, and the size suits this horse
21
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £5.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This is a 4-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
- A low win rate on this ground from 3 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
- A 12.0% record at this course for B. Powell. Some jockeys just do not do well at some courses.
TrackLab Insight
Crystal Orchard has one top-3 finish from four races, that being a third at Exeter 236 days ago, but has otherwise struggled in the field with a pair of fifth-place efforts and an eighth. The horse is still chasing a breakthrough win after six months of racing, and the jump from Class 4 company down to novice level here is a step towards a more suitable target.
2nd in the market (4/1)
3
Sirgreg
£1 wins £14 · 11 Could surprise
A 25% win rate at this course for P. Hobbs & Johnson White
11
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £15.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 25% win rate at this course for P. Hobbs & Johnson White. Trainers who know a course often send out their horses well suited to it.
- S. Houlihan has won 6.4% of their races in their career. That steady record counts for a lot.
- Has not raced for 327 days. That is a long time away, and we cannot be sure the horse will be fit enough.
TrackLab Insight
Sirgreg has just one race to his name — a third-place finish at Exeter 327 days ago — and is returning to action after a three-month absence, which makes him the least experienced and most unpredictable runner in the field. He has never tackled slightly soft ground before, and the long time away adds genuine doubt over his readiness for this stepping-stone novice race.
Drops 2 classes from usual level
Never raced on slightly soft ground
Lightly raced (1 career races)
Absent 327 days (longest in field)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £26.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- 4 runners today is a good number for this horse. The number of runners affects how a race is run.
- The official rating suggests this horse has work to do. Lower-rated horses need to improve to win.
TrackLab Insight
JPR Two has managed neither a win nor a top-3 finish in two outings, finishing sixth and eighth at Newton Abbot and Exeter respectively. The drop of two classes from the horse's usual level is significant, but with only a handful of races under his belt and recent wind surgery to recover from, there is still plenty of uncertainty around what he can deliver at this stage.
Drops 2 classes from usual level
Lightly raced (2 career races)
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.