Newton Abbot
·
Persimmon Homes Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)
Starts in
13h 49min
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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Our top pick for this race
Strong chance
Odds 15/8
£1 wins £1.88 · 28 Strong chance
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £2.88 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A Chase Turf race works in this horse's favour. Horses often do best in one type of race and struggle in others.
- A 6-runner race works well for this horse. The number of runners changes the pace and how much room a horse has.
- Has won 3 times at this course from 7 runs. A horse that has won here before may like the course.
TrackLab Insight
Opening Bid is the market favourite at 5/2 and has won 3 of 7 races at Newton Abbot (43%), making him a course specialist with proven pedigree here. At 11 years old he is the oldest in the field, and while his last two runs saw him finish 4th at Chepstow 19 days ago and 9th before that, his long-term record (24% win rate, 20 top-3 finishes) shows this is a battle-hardened campaigner who keeps bouncing back.
Course specialist (3 wins from 7 here)
Has won over this course and distance
Market favourite (5/2)
£1 wins £3.50 · 22 Strong chance
C. Williams wins 66.7% of their races at this course
22
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £4.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- C. Williams wins 66.7% of their races at this course. Some trainers aim horses at particular tracks, and this one does well here.
- A 6-runner race works well for this horse. The number of runners changes the pace and how much room a horse has.
- A 12.8% career win rate for R. Dingle. That is on the low side and could matter today.
TrackLab Insight
The Four Sixes won 6 of his 25 races (roughly 1 in 4) and finished in the top 3 on 15 occasions, making him the most consistent performer here by sheer volume of success. However, he was pulled up at Hexham 172 days ago and is running just a day after finishing 5th at this same course, so freshness is not on his side and recent form has dipped noticeably.
One of the more successful in the field (6 career wins)
19
Underrated horse
We think it's more likely to win than the odds suggest, so if it wins, it pays more than it should. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £5.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- P. Nicholls has a good 28.3% record here. A trainer who does well at one course is worth noting.
- P. Nicholls wins 22.7% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- 4 wins from 8 runs at this track. When a horse likes a course, it often runs well there again.
TrackLab Insight
Centara is the standout specialist for this race: he has won 4 of 8 races at Newton Abbot (50%), won over this exact course and distance, and has won 3 of 8 races on slightly soft ground. His win rate of 35% across 23 races is the strongest in the field, and the jockey-trainer partnership has delivered 16 wins from 76 outings together, suggesting they work well as a unit.
Course specialist (4 wins from 8 here)
Has won over this course and distance
Best record on this ground (3 from 8)
Best record at this trip (5 from 11)
16
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £4.33 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This is a 6-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
- Has raced 6 times on this ground with a low win rate. Today's ground may not suit it.
- Mrs C. Williams has a 3.6% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Klic Boum has never won in 15 races (0% win rate) and carries the lowest weight in the field at 142lbs, 19lbs below average, which reflects his rating of 94—bottom of the class by a clear margin. He has been absent for 257 days (longest lay-off in the race) and was running in Class 5 before that, suggesting this is a significant step up; without a career win and limited data on slightly soft ground, he faces an uphill task.
Lowest rated, 19lbs below average
Carries lowest weight in field
Absent 257 days (longest in field)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £9.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- 6 runners today is a good number for this horse. The number of runners affects how a race is run.
- A Chase Turf race works in this horse's favour. Horses often do best in one type of race and struggle in others.
- This trainer's horses often do not finish their races. That makes them harder to trust.
TrackLab Insight
Sinchi Roca has never raced on slightly soft ground, which is a significant unknown on a day when the track will be testing; his record improves on heavy and soft ground (1 win from 3 starts each), but he is unproven here. At six years old with only 9 races run and a 22% win rate, he is the least experienced horse in the field and returns from a 199-day absence, making this a gamble on improvement rather than established form.
Never raced on slightly soft ground
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £15.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This is a 6-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- A 5.6% career win rate for J. Joseph Hanlon. That is below the top trainers.
TrackLab Insight
Mo Ghille Mar has raced 41 times (more than any other runner) but won only 6 of them (15%), making her the least efficient at converting opportunities despite a recent win at Down Royal 61 days ago. She has not won on yielding, yielding-to-soft, or heavy ground, and slightly soft conditions today sit outside her comfort zone; her record on left-handed galloping tracks (1 win from 14) also counts against her here at Newton Abbot.
One of the more successful in the field (6 career wins)
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.