Newton Abbot

The standout fact here is that Cogital has won over this course and distance before, and its record on normal ground is the best in the field on paper — winning roughly 1 in 3 on that surface across 13 attempts. At 11 years old it is one of the oldest in the race, but four career wins and 14 places from 32 races tells you this horse competes honestly. The course and ground combination genuinely suits.

One of two horses in this field to have won over this course and distance, Jukebox Annie scored at Newton Abbot in September 2023, so the track holds no fears. The concern is a 146-day absence — the longest in the field — combined with a pulled-up run last time out and six races without a win. The course form is real, but rustiness after five months off is a genuine risk.

At 11 years old, Zambezi Fix has built its entire career around Chepstow — all three of its wins have come there — so turning up at Newton Abbot asks a question it has never convincingly answered. The jockey and trainer have not won together in 23 races, and recent form shows two sixth-place finishes beaten by huge distances. Hard to make a case here.

Hawa Jumeirah is a big outsider at 21.0 and has not won in any of its last six completed races, so there is no obvious reason to think today is the day. The jockey and trainer have not won together in 35 races, which adds to the concern. Recent runs show repeated fifth-place finishes, beaten by large distances — competitive in the loosest sense, but not threatening.

Ambassador's record is eye-catching in one specific place — Uttoxeter, where it wins 4 from 10 — but Newton Abbot is a very different track and it has never won here. Three consecutive non-completions or well-beaten finishes in recent form, plus a 50-day absence, make this a tough sell at 29.0. The form simply does not travel to this course.

Six races, no wins, and rated 12 pounds below the field average — Warfleet is the lowest-weighted and lowest-rated horse in this race, and the form to date offers little encouragement. It ran here 60 days ago and finished ninth, beaten by nearly 50 lengths. Without a win to its name, it faces a steep climb against more experienced rivals.

Peace Motivator has fallen, been pulled up, or not completed in several of its last outings, which is an obvious concern in a hurdle race. At 81.0 in the market — the longest price in the field — the bookmakers have made their view clear, and this is a first-time partnership between horse and jockey. There is very little in the data to argue against those long odds.