Newton Abbot

The editorial's second choice and second in the market at 4.5, Black Occ is one of the more consistent horses in this field — finishing third at Warwick just 25 days ago, beaten less than three lengths. He has never won in 10 races, but three place finishes suggest he is competitive at this level, and that near-miss last time out is the best recent piece of form in the race.

Sixteen races without a win is a tough record to look past, but Daring Plan's last completed run was a second-place finish at Fontwell, beaten just over a length — the tightest losing margin in recent form across this field. He has been off the track for 68 days and carries the lightest official rating of the leading fancies, which is an advantage in this type of race. Five career place finishes show he is genuinely competitive; he just cannot quite cross the line first.

The standout fact here is that this horse pulled up at this very course just seven days ago — returning to the scene of a non-completion that quickly is unusual and worth noting. Trained by one of Britain's most successful trainers in Paul Nicholls, but 12 races without a win and two failures to finish in the last two outings make this a hard sell. The quick turnaround suggests the yard believe in him, but the recent record demands caution.

The most experienced horse in the field by a country mile — 49 races compared to a field average of 13 — and crucially, the only horse here who has already won at Newton Abbot. However, today's normal ground conditions are a concern: he has never won on this type of surface in 14 attempts, with all his wins coming on faster, drier ground. At 8 years old and with five consecutive races without a win, the clock is ticking.