Cogital

Away from Newton Abbot, life has been tougher. Cogital has picked up just three wins from his remaining 33 races — which tells you the horse has found his level and performs at his best within sight of that Devon track. His overall record of five wins and 16 places from 36 races gives him a win rate of roughly one in every seven attempts, respectable for a horse at his level. He races most often in competitive company at Class 4 standard, where he has managed just one win from 11 races, highlighting that these are demanding conditions for him.

Conditions matter too. When the ground is normal and firm, Cogital shines: he has won five of his 17 races on such surfaces, a 29% win rate that jumps out from his overall figures. Softer or wetter ground has never brought him luck. Jordan Williams, his most frequent partner, has ridden him to two wins from ten races together — a 20% success rate that is notably better than his overall form, suggesting they suit each other. Bernard Llewellyn's yard at Fochriw in Mid Glamorgan has had a solid season, sending out 12 winners, and Cogital remains active: he raced just a day ago, suggesting the horse still has racing ahead of him despite his age.