Tom Kiely-Marshall(5)

The most striking of those threads is what happens when the sun comes out. On fast, dry ground, Kiely-Marshall wins at 17% — 5 from 30 races — which is nearly three times his season average. That is not a coincidence. Some jockeys simply ride differently when the ground is rattling fast, and the numbers suggest he is one of them. Similarly, at Catterick Bridge he has won 3 races from just 10 rides — 30%, or nearly 1 in 3. For context, most jockeys would be delighted with 1 in 5 at their strongest track. Those 10 rides at Catterick tell you more about his ability than a whole season of mixed results elsewhere.

His strongest working relationship is with trainer Julie Camacho, for whom he has ridden 82 times and come home in front on 6 occasions, a win rate of around 1 in 14. That is not a blockbuster partnership on paper, but 82 rides represents real, sustained trust — trainers do not keep putting a jockey up if they are not impressed by what they see on the track and in the yard. His best individual partnership is with Tomorrow Day, a horse he has ridden to 2 wins from just 7 races together — a relationship that clearly clicks.

There is one number in his record that deserves a direct look. Last season he was winning at 12% — 1 in every 8 or 9 rides. This season it has dropped to 6%. That kind of dip happens in this sport, and it does not necessarily mean anything is wrong, but it is something to watch. What makes it interesting rather than worrying is the last two weeks: 2 winners from 15 rides at 13%, well above his season average. If that is the beginning of a return to his best, the timing — heading into summer, when the ground tends to dry out — suits him perfectly.