Listowel

Two wins from 29 races tells the story of a horse that competes honestly without often threatening to win, and the recent form — four finishes of 4th, 8th, 7th, and 8th — confirms that pattern is continuing. A low draw in stall 5 is a minor plus, but this horse has never won on the soft ground on offer today. Hard to make a case for this one making the breakthrough here.

Drawn in stall 15, which is one of the worst positions at this course and distance — the data shows high draws win here only 6% of the time. More pressing is the fact that this horse has never raced on today's wet, soft ground, so nobody really knows how it will handle these conditions. A recent fourth at Musselburgh shows it's in decent order, but the draw and the unknown ground make this a risky proposition.

One win from 23 races is a tough record, and that sole victory came nearly two years ago — nothing since has come close. Like several rivals today, this horse has never raced on soft ground, so today's wet conditions are an unknown quantity, and with a draw in the middle of the pack, there's little to grab hold of here. The jockey-trainer combination does win regularly together, but the horse itself has given little encouragement.

Still searching for a first career win from 10 races, this horse races again after just five days — a very quick turnaround. It has never raced on today's soft ground, adding another layer of uncertainty, and has been well beaten in its last three runs before a distant third at Dundalk most recently. The low rating — six below the field average — reflects a horse that hasn't yet found the level needed to win.

The only horse in this field who has actually won at Listowel, and not just once — three wins from seven races here makes this a genuine course specialist. At nine years old and rated higher than the field average, the puzzle is why the market has almost completely ignored him, drifting to 23/1. Today's wet ground is key: he wins roughly 1 in 3 races on heavy or very soft ground, but has never won on faster surfaces.

Drawn in stall 14, which sits in the least favourable part of the course here, and the recent form is hard to spin positively — a 12th-place finish at Roscommon just 20 days ago, beaten nearly 10 lengths. Crucially, this horse has never raced on today's soft ground, so we have no idea how it handles wet conditions, and its best form has come on fast, dry ground where it wins nearly 1 in 3 races. Too many unknowns to be confident.

A big outsider at 26/1, and the data doesn't do much to argue against that price — this horse has one win from 12 races and has never won on wet or soft ground, which is what's on offer today. A third at Dundalk five weeks ago was encouraging, but a beaten 7.8 lengths fourth at Navan more recently brought things back down to earth. The low draw in stall 6 is a small positive in a race where stalls 1-6 are mid-table for success.

One of only two three-year-olds in the field, and with just five career races this is one of the least experienced horses in a 16-runner field. Two of the last three runs are missing from the form book, making it nearly impossible to assess where this horse is right now. Drawn in stall 13 — one of the worst positions at this course — and a drifting 51/1 price suggests the market has little confidence.

Four career wins and a decent overall record, but the ground data here is a real problem — this horse has never won on soft or wet ground outdoors, and all four victories have come on fast, dry conditions where it wins roughly 1 in 4 races. Today's wet ground at Listowel looks squarely against her. A third at Bellewstown seven weeks ago showed she's not out of form, but conditions may simply not suit.

The most experienced horse in the entire field with 50 career races, and one of only two horses here who have form to show on heavy or very wet ground — he wins roughly 1 in 3 races on heavy ground, the best wet-ground record in this field. Three consecutive top-three finishes before his last run shows he's been in decent nick, and a low draw in stall 2 helps. The catch is that soft ground specifically — as opposed to heavy — has produced zero wins from six attempts.

The lowest-rated horse in the field, carrying the lightest weight, and still without a win from 10 career races — just one placed finish to show across all of those outings. Recent form reads 7th, 10th, and 11th in the last three completed runs, which offers little encouragement. Drawn in stall 1, which is actually in the low-draw bracket that performs best here, but the overall picture makes this a very difficult horse to recommend.