The editorial pick for this race, and it is easy to see why — he won at Gowran Park last time out on just his second ever race. The one honest question mark is that he has never raced on wet or muddy ground, and today's soft conditions are an unknown he will need to handle.
Never raced on soft groundLightly raced (2 career races)
J. Cleary(5)
·
A. P O'Brien
· 3yo
· 9st 9lb
· OR 98
FormTrack
20
Won 1 of last 5Won here 1 time
TrackLab Insight
The top-rated horse in the field by six pounds and the only runner who has actually won at this course — making him stand out clearly from his rivals on paper. However, like Satoyama, he has never raced on soft ground before, and his last two runs have been a third and a fifth, so his form is heading in the wrong direction.
Top rated by 6lbsOnly course winner (1 from 1 here)Never raced on soft groundMarket favourite (3.0)
Trained by Willie Mullins, which demands respect, and he did win on just his second-ever race at The Curragh. The serious concern here is that he has not raced in 225 days — the longest absence of anyone in this field — and a horse returning from that kind of break after a heavy defeat last time out is a genuine risk.
Lightly raced (2 career races)Absent 225 days (longest in field)
One of the least experienced horses here, with only three races under his belt, but he arrives having won his most recent outing at Limerick. At just three years old and with so little racing behind him, it is genuinely hard to know how much more he has to offer — which cuts both ways.
Wearing tongue strapFresh (64 days off)Won 0 of last 5
TrackLab Insight
The second-highest rated horse in the field, yet he has not won in five career races and his last five finishes read 4th, 6th, 5th, 10th, 4th — consistently in the mix but never close enough to matter. He carries a tongue strap today, which suggests his the yard are trying something different to unlock a better performance.
The best win rate in the field — two wins from five races, nearly 1 in 2 — makes Tim Toe hard to ignore on paper. He finished third last time out at Killarney, beaten just two lengths, so the form is live. The concern is his odds drifting dramatically from what looked like strong early support.
The lowest-rated horse in the field by some distance, carrying 12 pounds less than the top-rated Straight Up, and her form of 5th, 6th, 6th tells a blunt story. She has also never raced on soft ground before, and at odds of 29.0 the market has made a clear judgement about her chances here.
Never raced on soft groundLightly raced (3 career races)
How do odds work?The first number is what you win, the second is what you bet. So 5/2 means you win £5 for every £2. 4/1 means you win £4 for every £1. The bigger the first number, the less likely bookmakers think the horse will win — but the more you'd win if it does.