Altimara

Both of those wins arrived at Leopardstown, in August 2025 — the first on the 7th, the second on the 21st. Back-to-back wins at one of Ireland's premier tracks inside a fortnight is not nothing. Leopardstown hosts some of the best racing in the country, and winning there twice in quick succession suggests this is a horse that rises to the occasion when the setting suits. The problem is that Altimara has not won since, going six races without a victory, and the recent form figures of 6-9-12-7-3-3 show a horse that has been drifting towards the back of the field rather than threatening the front of it.

The conditions matter. On normal ground, Altimara wins 2 from 9 — roughly 1 in every 4 or 5 races — and both career victories came at that same trip of seven furlongs to a mile, a range where the horse has won 2 of its 10 attempts, or 1 in 5. Strip away the wrong ground or the wrong distance and Altimara becomes a more interesting proposition. The regular partner in the saddle is Donagh O'Connor, who has ridden this horse to both wins from their nine races together — a win rate of 22%, or just under 1 in every 4 rides. That combination clearly works best when everything else lines up.

O'Sullivan has had a productive season, sending out 40 winners from his Kildare base, so he knows how to place a horse. Altimara raced just one day ago and remains active, which means another run is likely not far away. The question is whether the right conditions — normal ground, that seven-furlong-to-a-mile range, O'Connor in the irons — can all align again. They have before. Twice, at Leopardstown, in the same August fortnight.