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Mercurial

Mercurial is a 7-year-old that has found success hard to come by over a long career. With just one win from 40 races, the horse wins roughly 1 in every 50 times it steps onto the track — a record that speaks to the brutal reality of racing at the lower levels, where dozens of hard-trying animals compete for scraps week after week.Based on TrackLab's analysis
Quick facts
Age
7 years old
Sex
Gelding
Colour
Bay
Father
Prince Of Lir
Mother
Conjuring
Owner
John J Nallen
Official rating
69

📊 Key numbers

Career totals for this horse
40
Career races
1
Wins
2.5%
Win rate
avg ~10%
40%
Top-3 rate
avg ~30%
6 days
Since last race

🔍 Full analysis

Our model's view, based on this horse's career and recent runs
TrackLab's detailed breakdown

That single victory came at The Curragh on 20 April 2024, over five furlongs, and it remains the high point of the horse's record. The gap since then — 30 months — tells the story. Mercurial has raced 25 times since that win and added only places to its tally, suggesting the horse has settled into a pattern of consistent but unrewarding effort. Recent form offers little hope: in its last six races it has finished third, sixth, third, eighth, second, and fourth. A second-place finish five runs ago was as close as it has come to another breakthrough, but it was not close enough.

The horse performs best over middle distances of five to six and a half furlongs, winning 1 of 14 races at that trip (7%), compared to its overall record. It is most often ridden by Sean D Bowen, though that partnership has yielded no winners from 18 rides together. Trainer John J Nallen, based at an undisclosed yard, has had a modest season with five winners sent out overall. Mercurial raced just a day ago and remains active, so the search for a second career win continues — though at this stage, it feels like a very long shot indeed.

⚡ Strengths and risks

What helps this horse and what to watch out for
✓ What works in their favour
✔ Excellent record on heavy ground: 1 wins from 9 starts (11%)
✔ Well suited by 5f – 6½f distances: 7% win rate
⚠ What to watch out for
⚠ Poor record on soft ground: 0 wins from 10 starts
⚠ Poor record on good ground: 0 wins from 7 starts
⚠ Poor record on standard ground: 0 wins from 4 starts
⚠ Poor record on yielding ground: 0 wins from 3 starts
⚠ Poor record on yielding_to_soft ground: 0 wins from 3 starts
⚠ Poor record on good_to_yielding ground: 0 wins from 3 starts
⚠ Yet to win at Listowel in 6 attempts
⚠ Yet to win at Roscommon in 6 attempts
⚠ Struggles on LH Galloping tracks: 0 wins from 10 starts
⚠ Struggles on LH Sharp tracks: 0 wins from 8 starts
⚠ Struggles on RH Sharp tracks: 0 wins from 6 starts

🎯 Where this horse runs best

Results split by ground, distance, race level and track shape
🌧 Ground
Heavy (very wet)
Loves
Soft to heavy (wet)
Unknown
Soft (muddy)
Avoids
Good (a little give)
Avoids
Standard (all-weather)
Avoids
Yielding (slightly soft)
Avoids
Yielding to soft (damp)
Avoids
Good to yielding (mild give)
Avoids
📏 Race distance
5F – 6½F
Loves
7F – 1M
Avoids
1M1F – 1M2F
Avoids
🏅 Race level
Class 2 (high-level)
Unknown
Class 3 (mid-level)
Unknown
Class 4 (standard)
Avoids
🏟 Track shape
Right-handed, long straights
Loves
Right-handed, tight
Unknown
Left-handed, long straights
Avoids
Left-handed, tight turns
Avoids
Right-handed, tight turns
Avoids
Left-handed, tight
Avoids

📅 Recent runs

The last 10 races, most recent first
12 Oct
3rd
Roscommon
7f – 1m · Soft · 16 runners
22 Sep
6th
Listowel
7f – 1m · Yielding · 13 runners
31 Aug
3rd
Roscommon
7f – 1m · Yielding · 13 runners
18 Aug
8th
Roscommon
7f – 1m · Good_To_Yielding · 18 runners
31 May
2nd
Listowel
5f – 6½f · Good · 16 runners
18 May
4th
Roscommon
7f – 1m · Good_To_Yielding · 18 runners
2 Nov
9th
The Curragh
7f – 1m · Heavy · 21 runners
21 Oct
2nd
The Curragh
5f – 6½f · Heavy · 17 runners
23 Sep
4th
Listowel
7f – 1m · Heavy · 16 runners
27 Jun
8th
The Curragh
7f – 1m · Good · 16 runners

🏇 Jockeys

Every jockey who has ridden this horse, most rides first
0%
Win rate
0/18
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/7
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/3
Wins / rides
Darragh O'Sullivan
0%
Win rate
0/2
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/2
Wins / rides
100%
Win rate
1/1
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides

🏟 Course record

Win rate at each course this horse has visited
CourseRacesResultsLast runWin rate
The Curragh
Galloping
8 1 win, 2 seconds, 1 third, 4 other 2 Nov 12.5%
Listowel
Sharp
6 2 seconds, 1 third, 3 other 22 Sep 0%
Roscommon
Sharp
6 2 seconds, 2 thirds, 2 other 12 Oct 0%
Chester
Tight
3 3 other 14 Sep 0%
Dundalk
Galloping
3 1 second, 1 third, 1 other 23 Mar 0%
Limerick
Galloping
2 2 other 25 Apr 0%
Naas
Galloping
2 1 third, 1 other 23 Mar 0%
Galway
Tight
2 1 second, 1 other 12 Sep 0%
Navan
Galloping
1 1 other 13 May 0%
Doncaster
Galloping
1 1 second 23 Oct 0%
Bellewstown
Sharp
1 1 other 27 Sep 0%
Cork
Galloping
1 1 other 3 Apr 0%
Tipperary
Galloping
1 1 other 21 Apr 0%
Wolverhampton
Galloping
1 1 other 11 Oct 0%
Haydock Park
Galloping
1 1 other 18 Oct 0%
Killarney
Sharp
1 1 other 13 Jul 0%