Leopardstown
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Starts in
5h
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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40%+ Very strong chance
20–39% Strong chance
12–19% Solid chance
6–11% Could surprise
Under 6% Long shot
How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance, as a percentage. The scores in a race add up to 100%.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in a place. It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.
Our top pick for this race
Strong chance
Odds 3/1
£1 wins £3 · 22% chance
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £4.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- Came home 2nd last time out. A good recent run often carries over to the next race.
- This is a 19-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Rest Your Mind is the market favourite at 9/2 and was second by just 0.3 lengths at The Curragh two weeks ago, suggesting real recent form. She wins at an acceptable rate for this level and suits the distance well, though she's only beaten once in six races total.
Market favourite (9/2)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £6.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- D. Browne McMonagle has a good 13.3% record here. Knowing the course is one of a jockey's biggest strengths.
- The Good ground works in this horse's favour. The ground makes a big difference in racing, and today it helps.
- M. Andrew Ahern wins only 0% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Thyer has solid form on good ground with two wins from seven starts and was second by just 0.5 lengths at The Curragh only three weeks ago. The 48-day gap since his last run is a concern after that nearness, but his track record at this distance suggests he has the tools to compete.
Top-3 finishes in 2 of last 3 races
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £7.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- The Good ground works in this horse's favour. The ground makes a big difference in racing, and today it helps.
- D. McLoughlin has a 4.8% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Spacebound is the outsider here with no wins from five races despite two second-place finishes that suggest he's in the ballpark. His trainer has been sending out winners this season, but the horse has yet to convert that support into a breakthrough, and his most recent fourth at The Curragh came just two weeks ago.
2nd in the market (11/2)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £8.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Wins 20% of the time on this type of ground. Some horses run much better on soft or firm ground. This one suits today's ground.
- Mrs J. Harrington wins 10.7% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- This is a 19-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Dark Viper is the only course winner in the field with three victories from six Leopardstown runs, a win rate that towers above the competition. He showed he can handle good ground and thrives at this distance, though his recent fourth at Dundalk suggests he's not firing on all cylinders right now.
Course specialist (3 wins from 6 here)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £9.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A low win rate on this ground from 5 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
- D. K. Weld wins 16.9% of their races at this course. Some trainers aim horses at particular tracks, and this one does well here.
- A 19-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Harana is relatively inexperienced with only eight career races but shows consistency in running up the placings—she's finished in the top 3 three times in her last six outings. The concern is she's won just once in those eight races and has never won on good ground like today's surface.
Relatively inexperienced (8 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £7.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has raced 8 times on this ground with a low win rate. Today's ground may not suit it.
- W. McCreery has won 9.1% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- 19 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
Great Mover is among the more experienced runners with 27 races under her belt but has won just once in that span, a breakthrough at Gowran Park over a year ago. She's a consistent finisher without being a winner, and her record on good ground is stark: zero wins from eight starts.
Among the more experienced (27 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £8.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- With a 7.5% win rate overall, A. Slattery is one of the more dependable riders.
- A. Slattery has won 7.8% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- A. Slattery wins only 6.8% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Nermal is a relatively inexperienced three-year-old who finishes in the top 3 regularly—five times in eight races—but has converted just one of those into a win. His third-place finish at Thurles ten days ago shows he's competitive, though this represents a significant step up in class from recent outings.
Relatively inexperienced (8 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £12.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- J. P. Murtagh wins 11.0% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- This is a 19-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Darius Dark carries the best win rate in the field at one victory in every three races, a striking record that stands well above his rivals despite recent form drying up. The three-year-old hasn't won in three months and faces a massive 12-pound ratings gap to the top-rated runners, but his underlying form remains the sharpest on record.
Best career win rate in field (1 in 3)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £12.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A low win rate on this ground from 14 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
- Has not won at this distance before. We do not know if the race length suits the horse.
- S. Fahey wins 4.5% of their races overall. That is below the top trainers.
TrackLab Insight
Sinbad My Dad is one of the few other course winners here with a Leopardstown victory on his record, though he's still only won twice in 36 races. His recent win at Clonmel three weeks ago is his only bright spot, and a sixth-place finish at The Curragh last time out raises questions about whether he can repeat.
One of few course winners (1 wins here)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £15.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- Stall 15 helps today. At this course, some starting stalls have done better than others.
- 19 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
Galileo Noir is relatively inexperienced with just five races and no wins on the board, most recently finishing ninth at The Curragh. He's yet to show the form needed to mix it at this level, and the recent trend is downward.
Relatively inexperienced (5 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £23.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- With 59 races behind it, this horse knows what to expect. Experienced runners tend to cope better with pressure.
- Today's ground is Good, and that suits this horse. Like athletes who prefer one type of surface, horses have favourite ground.
- A 19-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Walhaan is a ten-year-old veteran with 59 races on the clock and has put together three straight top-3 finishes, most recently third at Dundalk three weeks ago. He wins roughly once every ten races, but his form pattern on this ground and at this track (14th at Leopardstown five months ago) makes him a long shot despite his consistency.
3 straight top-3 finishes
2%
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £23.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- J. M. Sheridan has won 7.8% of their races in their career. That steady record counts for a lot.
- A 7.1% overall win rate for D. Gerard Hogan. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- A 5.5% record at this course for D. Gerard Hogan. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Autumn Twist is the only winner at this exact distance in the field, with a victory at Killarney two months ago, and he owns the best record on good ground at 4 wins from 11 starts. The five-year-old is genuinely suited to today's conditions and distance, though he's drifted to 33/1 in the betting.
Only winner at this distance
Best record on this ground (4 from 11)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £34.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has not won at this distance before. We do not know if the race length suits the horse.
- L. McAteer has won 8.0% of their races in their career. That steady record counts for a lot.
- 19 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
Molto Amichi has won just once in 18 races and hasn't broken through in two months, making him a long-odds proposition. His most recent run saw him beaten badly at Punchestown, and he's never won at Leopardstown in five attempts.
Top-3 finishes in 2 of last 3 races
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £29.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A low win rate on this ground from 5 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
- An 8.6% overall win rate for S. Heffernan. Good jockeys make better decisions during a race.
- This is a 19-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Java Wood is a six-year-old who won half his races on yielding ground but runs on good or normal ground today, where he's never won from five attempts. He raced just six days ago and came home seventh, a poor platform to bounce back from.
Runs again after just 6 days
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £41.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This type of ground has not suited the horse: 3 runs without much success. Some horses prefer different ground.
- A 9.3% overall win rate for W. M. Lordan. Good jockeys make better decisions during a race.
- A. Oliver wins only 5.4% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Faro Island has won three of 14 races and crosses the line in the money about half the time, showing the consistency that keeps him in work. Recent form is poor—11th at Down Royal three weeks ago—and he offers slim prospects at long odds.
Outsider at 33/1
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £41.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A low win rate on this ground from 7 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
- This horse is happy on Good ground. When the ground suits, a horse can run to its best.
- A. McNamara wins only 0% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Berto Ramirez has won just once in 24 races over the past five months and was beaten badly at Listowel three weeks ago, placing him at the bottom of the form table. His one success came at Down Royal, but there's little else to suggest he can compete today.
Among the more experienced (24 career races)