Leopardstown
·
Trigo Stakes (Listed)
Starts in
4h 30min
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
18+ | Gamble responsibly: BeGambleAware.org Ad: we earn commission if you join a bookmaker via our links.
40%+ Very strong chance
20–39% Strong chance
12–19% Solid chance
6–11% Could surprise
Under 6% Long shot
How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance, as a percentage. The scores in a race add up to 100%.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in a place. It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.
Our top pick for this race
Very strong chance
Odds 4/5
£1 wins 80p · 49% chance
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.80 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 19.0% overall win rate for A. O'Brien. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- A 20% win rate at this course for A. O'Brien. Trainers who know a course often send out their horses well suited to it.
- Not rated highly by the official rater. The rating reflects what the horse has done so far, and it is modest.
TrackLab Insight
This 3-year-old burst onto the scene with a debut win at The Curragh just 22 days ago and is trained by Aidan O'Brien's operation, which is firing on all cylinders. The market has made him the favourite at 5/4, but he's never raced on normal ground before and has just the one race under his belt—racing him immediately against established competitors at Listed class is a significant step up.
Never raced on normal ground
Lightly raced (1 career races)
Market favourite (5/4)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £6.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has raced 3 times on this ground with a low win rate. Today's ground may not suit it.
- G. M. Lyons has won 13.4% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- Stepping up to a harder race today. As with any step up, the question is whether the horse is good enough for this level.
TrackLab Insight
This horse has dropped two classes for this race but arrives here in poor form after a distant 18th-place finish at York 57 days ago. He has a solid record on standard and yielding ground (winning roughly 1 in 3 races at mile-and-a-quarter to mile-and-a-half distances), but he's never won on fast, dry ground and hasn't raced in nearly two months. The long absence combined with recent poor form makes him a risky proposition.
Drops 2 classes from usual level
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £7.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- C. Hayes wins 8.2% of their races at this course. Knowing the track is an advantage for any jockey.
- An 8.3% overall win rate for C. Hayes. Good jockeys make better decisions during a race.
- There is £30,000 in prize money. A small prize can mean weaker rivals, but it may also mean the horse is running below its best level.
TrackLab Insight
This 4-year-old carries an exceptional career record of 2 wins from 5 races and has the best record in the field on normal ground with 1 win from 3 starts. He returned to the winner's enclosure just 48 days ago at Roscommon and holds the standout marker of being underrated by the market. The main uncertainty is whether that recent win signals genuine improvement or merely a flash of form.
Best record on this ground (1 from 3)
Best career win rate in field (1 in 2)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £8.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- No wins at this distance yet. We cannot tell if the race is too long, too short or just right.
- W. J. Lee has a good 8.4% record here. Knowing the course is one of a jockey's biggest strengths.
- G. Cromwell has a 6.3% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
This 5-year-old mare is one of the few course winners in the field, having won at Leopardstown, and boasts a solid career record of 5 wins from 18 races with an exceptional 50% win rate on good-to-firm ground. However, she hasn't raced in 94 days and finished sixth here at her most recent Leopardstown appearance; the jockey-trainer pairing has won just once from eight races together, raising questions about their recent form as a team.
One of few course winners (1 wins here)
£1 wins £11 · 6% chance
J. Patrick O'Brien has won 14.1% of their races in their career
6%
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £12.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- J. Patrick O'Brien has won 14.1% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- A 14.1% overall win rate for J. Patrick O'Brien. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- 11 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
This horse has won twice from 14 races and has been knocking on the door recently with two wins and three top-3 finishes in his last six outings. However, he's yet to win at Leopardstown despite five attempts here, and he struggles on left-handed tracks—which is exactly what this course is. The 4-year-old is better suited to shorter distances than today's mile and two furlongs.
One of the more successful in the field (2 career wins)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £13.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This type of ground has not suited the horse: 4 runs without much success. Some horses prefer different ground.
- A 10.2% overall win rate for S. Foley. Good jockeys make better decisions during a race.
- Only 11th last time out. That is not what we want to see before today's race.
TrackLab Insight
This 3-year-old has won just once from seven races and hasn't run for 79 days after a disappointing 11th-place finish at Galway. He's never won on good ground and his recent form shows no sign of a breakthrough; the earlier win at Gowran Park has not been followed by consistent improvement. At 16/1, he sits in the middle ground of the market but faces an uphill task against more in-form rivals.
Relatively inexperienced (7 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £34.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A low win rate on this ground from 3 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
- This horse is happy on Good ground. When the ground suits, a horse can run to its best.
- J. G Murphy wins only 5.7% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
This 3-year-old filly has won twice from nine races and has finished second or fourth in her last two outings, showing she remains competitive. She's well suited to distances of a mile and one furlong to a mile and two furlongs and has a good record on yielding ground at 33% wins. Her main weakness is a complete lack of success on fast, dry ground—she's never won from three attempts—which represents a genuine concern for today's normal conditions.
One of the more successful in the field (2 career wins)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £81.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This type of ground has not suited the horse: 11 runs without much success. Some horses prefer different ground.
- A 7.8% overall win rate for A. Slattery. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- A. Slattery wins only 6.8% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
This 9-year-old is the only winner at today's distance in the field and has won twice from six races at a mile and two furlongs, but he's been absent for 121 days—the longest layoff in the race—and his last two runs ended in seventh place. He's yet to win at Leopardstown in five attempts and has a poor record on anything softer than good ground, making a quick return to form here a tall order.
Only winner at this distance
Best record at this trip (2 from 6)
Most experienced (33 runs, field avg 12)
Absent 121 days (longest in field)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £101.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has raced 5 times on this ground with a low win rate. Today's ground may not suit it.
- J. M. Sheridan wins 7.8% of all their races. That is a strong record. A jockey who wins often gives a horse a better chance.
- An 8.2% record at this course for H. de Bromhead. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
This 4-year-old filly has won just once from 14 races and is returning to action after finishing fourth at Dundalk just 23 days ago. She's failed to win on standard ground or good ground despite multiple attempts at each, and the jockey-trainer combination is yet to deliver a winner from four races together. Her only victory came at Ballinrobe 90 days ago, and there's no evidence of sustained improvement since.
Among the more experienced (14 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £34.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A. O'Brien wins 20% of their races at this course. Some trainers aim horses at particular tracks, and this one does well here.
- A. O'Brien has won 19.0% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- With an average finish of 5 lately, recent results are poor. This horse needs to improve.
TrackLab Insight
This 3-year-old is running again after just seven days, having finished sixth at Naas and looking far from impressive. She's won once from nine races and hasn't delivered a winning performance since June, going sixteen months without victory despite multiple opportunities. At 33/1, the market is offering a fair price on a horse that shows little current form or momentum.
Runs again after just 7 days
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £81.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- L. Roche has won 6.7% of their races in their career. That steady record counts for a lot.
- W. McCreery has won 9.1% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- A 7.3% record at this course for W. McCreery. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
This 3-year-old filly won at Punchestown 33 days ago and finished third at Navan 11 days ago, showing genuine improvement and consistency in recent weeks. She's won twice from 14 races and carries the standout marker of having three top-3 finishes in her last six outings, suggesting real momentum. However, she's never won on soft ground and sits 14 pounds below the field average on the official ratings, making her one of the least experienced improvers here.
One of the more successful in the field (2 career wins)