Molto Amichi

The form coming into that Killarney win actually suggested something was building. Reading the last six runs from most recent backwards — a win, a second, a ninth, a non-run, a third, and a fifth — you can see a horse that had been threatening. The second place just before the win is exactly the kind of run that makes a trainer think the breakthrough is coming. Eoin Griffin, who trains Molto Amichi from his yard in Slieverue, Co Kilkenny, will have known the pieces were falling into place. His team has been in decent form this season, sending out eight winners, so there is clearly confidence and competence in that operation.

What makes Molto Amichi's profile worth understanding is where it does its best work. At distances of a mile and one furlong to a mile and two furlongs, this horse has won 1 race from 10 attempts — that 10% record at those trips is where all the talent lives. In racing terms, finding a horse's ideal distance is half the battle, and Griffin appears to have that answer.

The one slightly puzzling thread in the story is the partnership with Colin Keane. Keane is one of the most accomplished riders around, yet across five races together the pair have not managed a single win. The Killarney victory this week came with someone else in the saddle, which is a small but interesting detail. Sometimes a fresh combination is exactly what unlocks a horse that has been knocking on the door. Whatever the reason, Molto Amichi is now a winner — and with the right trip identified and recent form pointing upward, there is every reason to think this week's success is a beginning rather than a one-off.