Leicester

The most inexperienced horse in the field with just three career races, and it steps up four class levels today — that is the biggest class jump in the whole field and a serious ask given it has never finished in the top few. Finishes of 9th, 11th, and 5th with gaps of over 20 lengths in two of those runs do not inspire confidence, and today's slightly soft ground is new territory too. Hard to find a reason to be enthusiastic here.

Four races, zero wins, zero places — the record is as bare as it gets, and the market has no interest either, drifting out to 12/1. Despite carrying a rating that puts it among the better-fancied on paper, it has never raced on slightly soft ground and draws in the highest stall, where the data suggests winning is harder at this course. The cheekpieces are a first-time addition, suggesting the yard are trying something different after a run of disappointing efforts.

Rated 10 points below the field average — the lowest rating in the race by a significant margin — and steps up four class levels today, the biggest class jump of any runner here. Finishing 25 lengths behind rivals at Doncaster last time out is not the form you want going into a competitive race, and it also carries blinkers for the first time. Very hard to make a case for this one on the available evidence.