Leicester

The most experienced horse in the field by a distance — 74 races compared to a field average of around 21 — and he landed a win right here at Leicester just 35 days ago, which makes that course form very current and very relevant. He sits in the middle of the draw where the numbers are less favourable, and his record on today's slightly soft ground is worth noting: he has won on soft ground before, winning roughly 1 in 3 times on it. The jockey has been in decent nick recently, winning 3 from 12 rides in the last two weeks.

The best career win rate in the field — winning roughly 1 in every 4 races — but that headline hides a troubling recent run of form: ninth, eighth, and thirteenth in her last three outings, the most recent beaten nearly 19 lengths at Haydock. She has never won on a left-handed track like Leicester in five attempts, and stall 10 puts her in the highest-risk part of the draw at this course.

Rated 7lbs below the field average, she is one of the lowest-rated horses in the race, yet she is the only runner who has won over this exact course and distance combination. Her form figures of 8-9-5 make grim reading, but she actually has a strong record on soft or slightly wet ground — winning roughly 1 in 3 times on it — which suits today perfectly. Stall 5 sits in the favourable low-draw zone, giving her a small but real edge.

Despite carrying an official rating equal to the joint-highest in the field, the market has pushed him out to 23-1 — a striking gap that suggests punters know something the rating doesn't fully reflect. His last three runs produced a seventh, a tenth and a sixth, and he arrives here having not raced for 43 days. The one real positive is that his best record by distance comes at today's 6 furlongs, winning 1 from 3 races at this trip.