Leicester
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Heather Small Live @leicesterraces Saturday 4th July Handicap
Starts in
10h 33min
Turf track
All Runners — sorted by TrackLab Score
Good Value
TrackLab Insight
The market favourite at 5.2, and the only horse in this field of ten with just nine career races — making it comfortably the least exposed runner here. That sole career win came at Haydock just 22 days ago, suggesting the horse is in form right now, and its record at distances around today's 1m2f is promising at roughly 1 win in every 3 races. The big unknown is today's slightly soft ground — it has never won on anything other than fast conditions so far.
Market favourite (5.2)
Trainer Quotes
May 2025
"She's nice. She's been second twice and wasn't beaten far last time at Haydock behind Previse. She just needs the rub of the green to get her head in front and could go back to Haydock on Friday. 29-05-25"
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TrackLab Insight
The horse in the best recent form in the field — three finishes of 3rd, 2nd and 1st in its last three races, including a win at Chepstow just 15 days ago. It also finished 3rd at this exact course 35 days ago, so Leicester holds no mysteries. The concern is that its best form has come on fast, dry ground, and it has never won on soft or muddy conditions — today's slightly soft surface is an unknown.
3 straight top-3 finishes
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TrackLab Insight
Drawn 4, which sits in the statistically strongest part of the track at this course and distance — a genuine plus. The last six runs have produced nothing better than 3rd, but that 3rd came just 11 days ago at Pontefract and was a close-run thing, beaten less than a length. Its three career wins have all come on standard ground, and today's slightly soft surface is outside its comfort zone.
Mid-range in the market (8.0)
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TrackLab Insight
Just one win from 11 career races, but a second-place finish at Haydock 22 days ago shows this horse is competitive when things go right. Drawn 2, which sits in the most favourable draw zone at this course and distance — a useful advantage. The worry is that it has never won on good ground across five attempts, and its overall win rate of roughly 1 in 11 makes it hard to fancy in a competitive field.
Mid-range in the market (8.0)
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TrackLab Insight
Carries the lowest weight in the field and is rated 7lbs below the average of its rivals — in a handicap, that lighter weight is a genuine advantage. Three straight top-3 finishes including a win and two seconds, with one of those seconds coming at this exact course just 18 days ago, makes this horse one of the most consistent in form across the whole field. The unknown is today's slightly soft ground, which it has never encountered before.
Lowest rated, 7lbs below average
Carries lowest weight in field
Never raced on slightly soft ground
3 straight top-3 finishes
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TrackLab Insight
Second in the market at 7.5, and the form backs that up — a win at Yarmouth followed by a near-miss second at Wolverhampton just 15 days ago suggests this horse is in decent nick right now. However, its career record shows it has never won on standard ground across 11 attempts, which raises a question about how it handles conditions that aren't quite what it prefers. Drawn 5, which sits in the most favourable part of the track according to draw stats at this course and distance.
2nd in the market (7.5)
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TrackLab Insight
Six career wins sounds solid, but four of them came at one track — Wolverhampton — where this horse wins roughly 2 in every 5 races. Away from that comfort zone, the record is far patchier, and crucially this horse has never won on today's slightly soft ground at this course. The recent form has been uninspiring too, finishing 8th and 4th before a modest 3rd last time out.
One of the more successful in the field (6 career wins)
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Good Value
TrackLab Insight
Seven races and still searching for a first win — the only horse in this field yet to reach the winner's enclosure. Recent form has been going the wrong way, with an 8th at Kempton following a 5th at Yarmouth. The one bright spot is jockey Silvestre De Sousa, who has won 3 from 12 rides in the past two weeks — the best form of any jockey in this field — but even that may not be enough to turn around a horse lacking a breakthrough.
Jockey in best form (3 from 12 last 2wk)
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TrackLab Insight
The most experienced horse in the field by a clear margin — 47 races compared to a field average of 22 — and it has converted roughly 1 in every 5 of those into wins, which is the second-best win rate here. At eight years old, however, the recent form has been flat with back-to-back 4th-place finishes, and it has never won on today's slightly soft conditions. Drawn 10, which is the weakest part of the draw at this course and distance.
Most experienced (47 runs, field avg 22)
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TrackLab Insight
The standout stat in the whole field: this horse wins roughly 1 in every 2 races across its career — no other runner comes close to that. Even more relevant, it has already won over this exact course and distance at Leicester, making it the only course winner in the field. The catch is a 6th-place finish at Newmarket 29 days ago and the fact it has never raced on today's slightly soft ground, so conditions are a genuine question mark.
Has won over this course and distance
Never raced on slightly soft ground
Best record at this trip (4 from 6)
Best career win rate in field (1 in 2)
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The first number is what you win, the second is what you bet. So 5/2 means you win £5 for every £2. 4/1 means you win £4 for every £1. The bigger the first number, the less likely bookmakers think the horse will win — but the more you'd win if it does.
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