Leicester

The most consistent horse in the field by a distance — four races, four top-three finishes, with a sequence of second-second-third-third across its career. No other runner comes close to matching that level of reliability, and the trainer has won 6 from 18 in the last two weeks, putting him comfortably in the best form of any trainer here. The one unknown is today's slightly soft ground, which El Nay hasn't tackled before, but on everything else this horse looks the one to beat.

Two races in, and the best finish so far is a fourth — this horse is yet to trouble the places despite racing at a decent level. It has also never raced on the slightly soft conditions on offer today, so the wet ground is an untested variable. With three debutants in opposition, its experience counts for something, but the form itself gives little to get excited about.

A complete unknown stepping onto a racecourse for the very first time — there is no form to judge this horse on at all. What stands out is the jockey: Silvestre De Sousa has won 3 from his last 12 rides, making him the busiest in-form rider in this field. That booking is a small but meaningful signal that someone believes this debutant has something to offer.

Another first-time racer with nothing in the form book to guide us, and the signals around this horse are not encouraging — the jockey is winless from 4 rides in the last two weeks, and the trainer has gone 0 from 5 in the same period. The draw in stall 2 is genuinely favourable at Leicester over this distance, but that is about the only positive to point to here.