Galway
·
Supermac's Rated Novice Hurdle
Starts in
17h 14min
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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24
Our top pick for this race
Strong chance
Odds 3/1
£1 wins £3 · 24 Strong chance
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £4.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- A 7-runner race works well for this horse. The number of runners changes the pace and how much room a horse has.
- The trainer's horses do not always finish their races. That raises questions about fitness and preparation.
TrackLab Insight
The only horse in the field winning roughly one in every three races, but soft ground is a problem—he's never won on anything worse than good conditions and has no form on wet or muddy tracks. His last two outings saw him beaten 12 lengths or more, so he's out of form precisely when the surface is against him.
Best career win rate in field (1 in 3)
23
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £3.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This is a 7-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
- G. Cromwell has won 10.1% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- G. Cromwell has a 6.7% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Top-rated by 3lbs and sent out favourite at 3/1, but form has stalled since his April win at Bellewstown—five months without a victory is a long dry spell for a horse carrying this much weight of expectation. He showed early promise with four top-3 finishes across seven races, but last time out at Listowel he was beaten nearly 10 lengths into 8th, and there's no evidence he's found the winning formula again.
Top rated by 3lbs
Market favourite (3/1)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £6.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- 7 runners today is a good number for this horse. The number of runners affects how a race is run.
- C. Byrnes has won 12.6% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- C. Byrnes has an 8.5% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
A 192-day absence is the longest break in the field, which raises questions about match fitness, but soft ground is genuinely her strong suit—she's won on it before and boasts a 33% win rate on soft conditions, the only horse with a proven soft-ground record. Her last race was a win at Limerick six months ago, so if she's been properly trained up during her absence, she could improve on a surface that suits her, though the long lay-off is a material concern.
Never raced on soft ground
Absent 192 days (longest in field)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £6.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This type of ground has not suited the horse: 3 runs without much success. Some horses prefer different ground.
- A 7-runner race works well for this horse. The number of runners changes the pace and how much room a horse has.
- A 7.5% record at this course for R. P. Cody. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
The most in-form horse in the field with a win at Punchestown just 11 days ago, preceded by two successive second-place finishes—this is a horse on an upward curve. The real concern is his record on soft or yielding ground: he's winless from three attempts on those surfaces, which makes today's soft conditions a genuine test of his improving form.
3 straight top-3 finishes
£1 wins £6 · 11 Could surprise
This is a 7-runner race, and the size suits this horse
11
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £7.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This is a 7-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
- 2m 4½f is a good distance for this horse. Over its best distance, it can run its own race.
- This trainer's horses often do not finish their races. That makes them harder to trust.
TrackLab Insight
A complete unknown on soft ground—he's never raced on it before—which is a significant gamble in a race run on soft turf at Galway. His only career win came four months ago at Punchestown, and he's shown poor form on good ground (0 wins from 4 starts), so the conditions may suit him, but there's no evidence either way.
Never raced on soft ground
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £7.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- G. Elliott wins 15.2% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- This is a 7-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
- Has won 1 time at this course from 1 run. A horse that has won here before may like the course.
TrackLab Insight
The only course winner here—he beat all comers at Galway just 19 days ago—but that sole victory came on turf (not in hurdles specifically), and he remains winless from nine races overall. His recent form shows back-to-back placings before that Galway win, so he's competitive but hasn't proven he can repeat that success over hurdles on soft ground.
Only course winner (1 from 1 here)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £67.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- 7 runners today is a good number for this horse. The number of runners affects how a race is run.
- Today's race is over 2m 4½f. That distance looks right for this horse. Running over the right distance matters a lot.
- P. John Gilligan has a 5.8% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Winless from eleven career races with a rating 22lbs below the field average, and now raced on soft ground for the first time—there's nothing in this horse's profile to suggest it belongs in a race at this level. Recent efforts at Galway and Sligo have seen heavy defeats, so today's reappearance on home turf at Galway offers no comfort.
Never raced on soft ground
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.