✓ Horse record at this distance✓ Field size✓ Trainer overall win rate
Won 2 of last 5Won here 3 timesLikes this ground (wins 38% of runs)
Why this score
+Has yet to win over this distance. It is like asking a sprinter to run a marathon. Distance matters, and this horse has not shown it can win here.
+A 9-runner race works well for this horse. The number of runners changes the pace and how much room a horse has.
−With an average finish of 1.7 lately, recent results are poor. This horse needs to improve.
TrackLab Insight
Won at Galway twice in the last 48 days and has strung together 3 straight top-3 finishes—form that's hard to ignore on this track and in these wet conditions. He's a 38% winner on yielding ground and already carries his rating as favourite, but soft ground at Galway clearly suits him in a way few other courses do.
Wearing hoodBack after 163 days offWon 2 of last 5
Why this score
+Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
+Rated 112 by the official rater. That is a strong number based on past results.
−M. Winters wins only 0% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Returns after 163 days away, but her career numbers are striking: 3 wins from 9 races (33% win rate) with a 50% record on soft-to-heavy ground. The long absence and first-time pairing with her jockey are real risks, but if she's come back well, these conditions and her wet-ground record give her genuine claims.
+Has yet to win over this distance. It is like asking a sprinter to run a marathon. Distance matters, and this horse has not shown it can win here.
+C. Byrnes wins 12.6% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
−Jumping is a weakness. In jumps racing, poor jumping loses ground and confidence.
TrackLab Insight
Never raced on soft ground before, which makes this an unknown quantity for a horse coming off a heavy defeat at Listowel 30 days ago. His three career wins have all come on faster ground, and while his stats suggest he could handle wet conditions, the recent form and lack of experience here are real concerns.
Won 0 of last 5Won here 1 timeLikes this ground (wins 50% of runs)Won at this distance 1 time
Why this score
+An official rating of 116 is in this horse's favour. The rating comes from results, and this horse's number looks good.
+This is a 9-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
−C. Murphy has a 5.4% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
The only horse with a winning record on soft ground at this distance—50% win rate from 4 runs on yielding ground—and he's just hit the frame twice at Perth and Galway to show he's competitive. A 48-day break is his main query, but the conditions and course form point to a horse in his wheelhouse.
Back after 202 days offWon 1 of last 5Won at this distance 1 time
Why this score
+Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
+Recent results are getting better. The horse is finishing higher up. A horse that is improving often keeps improving.
−P. J. Rothwell has a 3.8% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Only 7 career races to his name and hasn't raced since a dreadful 18th place at Fairyhouse 202 days ago. A 33% record on soft-to-heavy ground from 3 runs suggests the conditions could help, but inexperience, the long absence and sketchy recent form make him a serious long shot.
Has won at this course and distanceWearing cheekpiecesBack after 203 days offWon 2 of last 5Won here 1 time
Why this score
+Has not raced for 203 days. That is a long time away, and we cannot be sure the horse will be fit enough.
+P. J. Rothwell has a good 3.8% record here. A trainer who does well at one course is worth noting.
−A 3.8% record at this course for P. J. Rothwell. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Has won over this exact course and distance before and holds a 38% win rate on soft ground from 8 runs—solid credentials in a field where course form is sparse. Missing 203 days is a major concern, and he's never raced on soft ground in his recent outings, so the layoff combined with the going makes this a risky proposition despite the underlying form.
Has won over this course and distanceNever raced on soft groundBest record at this trip (3 from 7)Absent 203 days (longest in field)
Back after 188 days offWon 1 of last 5Raced here before
Why this score
+A low win rate on this ground from 4 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
+Rated 101 by the official rater. That is a strong number based on past results.
−D. G Murphy has a 0% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Won his maiden at Tramore in April but finished 7th here at Galway just 19 days ago and has zero wins from 4 runs on yielding ground. With only 9 career races and a win rate around 11%, he's got inexperience and form concerns stacked against him in a competitive field.
Won 0 of last 5Raced here beforeWon at this distance 1 time
Why this score
+This type of ground has not suited the horse: 5 runs without much success. Some horses prefer different ground.
+9 runners today is a good number for this horse. The number of runners affects how a race is run.
−Carrying 16.4 lbs more than the average for this race. That makes winning harder.
TrackLab Insight
Carries the lowest weight and rating in the field (16lbs below average), but that reflects his grim record: 1 win from 26 races (4%) with nothing but sixth-place finishes in his last four outings. Soft ground is a known poor surface for him, making this a tough ask despite the weight advantage.
Lowest rated, 16lbs below averageCarries lowest weight in field
+Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
+Raced just 2 days ago. Running again quickly can show the trainer is happy with the horse, but tiredness is a risk.
−J. Patrick Ryan has a 3.6% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Ran just 2 days ago and finished 5th, making her a quick turnaround on the back of a wide beating—unusual for any horse. Her career record sits at 1 win from 14 races (7%), but she carries an underrated tag; data is thin enough that her true ability may not be fully captured by the numbers, though the immediate back-to-back races is unconventional.
Runs again after just 2 days
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance 20–39 Strong chance 12–19 Solid chance 6–11 Could surprise Under 6 Long shotScores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
Underrated horse
We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
Our top pick
The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
TrackLab Score
Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
Ground
How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
Race level (Class)
From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
Group, Grade and Listed
The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
Handicap
The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
Maiden
A race for horses that haven't won yet.
Novice
A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
Chase, hurdle and bumper
Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
Distance (m and f)
m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
Each way
A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
Weight
How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
Jockey claim
An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
Headgear
Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.
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