Doncaster
·
Handicap Stakes
Starts in
14h 33min
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £5.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- A 21.6% win rate at this course for W. Buick. Jockeys who know a track well can pick the best ground and time their run.
- B. Ellison has a 7% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Lir Speciale is a course specialist at Doncaster with 3 wins from 4 races here and has won 2 of 3 on heavy ground (67%), making him ideally positioned for today's wet conditions. His recent third-place finish at Haydock 8 days ago shows he's in form, and at 9/2 he offers genuine course advantage over most rivals.
Course specialist (3 wins from 4 here)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £5.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- R. Varian has a good 23.1% record here. A trainer who does well at one course is worth noting.
- R. Varian has won 19.1% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- Up against stronger rivals than before. Moving up to a harder race tests whether a horse is improving.
TrackLab Insight
Anyasi is the market favourite at 4/1 with a solid 40% win rate from 5 races and a second-place finish at Haydock just 29 days ago. However, his strength lies at shorter distances (5f–6½f with a 67% win rate), and today's one-mile trip on wet ground moves him away from his proven sweet spot.
Market favourite (4/1)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £5.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- A 16.1% overall win rate for R. Beckett. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- This trainer's horses often do not finish their races. That makes them harder to trust.
TrackLab Insight
Shipbourne has the best win rate in the field at 50% (3 wins from 6 races) and won at Southwell just 32 days ago, showing genuine momentum for a three-year-old still learning his trade. Despite a difficult race at Newmarket in October, his recent consistency and high win rate stand out among this field.
Best career win rate in field (1 in 2)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £6.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- No wins at this distance yet. We cannot tell if the race is too long, too short or just right.
- The trend in recent results is up. Each run has been better than the one before, which is encouraging.
- Facing tougher rivals than last time. It is like moving up to a harder league. The step up is a challenge.
TrackLab Insight
River King has never raced on wet ground, making today an unpredictable test despite his decent recent form (two wins in six races). At four years old with a 20% win rate, he shows promise but is essentially an unknown quantity in these conditions.
Never raced on wet ground
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £11.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- A 10.7% overall win rate for P. Mulrennan. Good jockeys make better decisions during a race.
- Facing tougher rivals than last time. It is like moving up to a harder league. The step up is a challenge.
TrackLab Insight
Desperate Dan has an excellent record on heavy ground (2 wins from 6 starts, 33%) and wins best at this distance (3 from 7 races), making him well-suited to today's conditions despite recent poor form. However, his last two outings at Haydock have been disappointing (sixth-place finishes), so he needs to rediscover that wet-ground touch.
Best record at this trip (3 from 7)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £12.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- A 14.1% overall win rate for C. Fallon. Good jockeys make better decisions during a race.
- The trainer's horses do not always finish their races. That raises questions about fitness and preparation.
TrackLab Insight
Godwinson has won 4 of 17 races and thrives on soft ground (3 wins from 6 starts), which suits today's wet conditions at Doncaster. However, he hasn't won in his last 6 outings and was only tenth at Goodwood just 85 days ago after a recent comeback, so current form is a concern despite the ground being in his favour.
3 straight top-3 finishes
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £11.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- O. Murphy wins 17.1% of all their races. That is a strong record. A jockey who wins often gives a horse a better chance.
- Finished 1st in the last race, which is a good result. A good last run suggests the horse is in good shape.
- This trainer's horses often do not finish their races. That makes them harder to trust.
TrackLab Insight
Cavolo Nero is one of the more successful horses in the field with 4 career wins from 14 races, and won at Kempton just 66 days ago. A ninth-place finish at the same track 49 days later signals inconsistency, but his strong recent record (two wins in the last three runs) gives him solid credentials.
One of the more successful in the field (4 career wins)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £11.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 20% win rate at this course for H. Bethell. Trainers who know a course often send out their horses well suited to it.
- 3 runs here without a win. That counts against the horse. The track layout may not suit it.
- 1m may not be the right distance. Distance is one of the basics, and this one is a worry.
TrackLab Insight
On The River is the most experienced horse in the field (54 races) and has the best record on soft ground (5 wins from 11 starts, 45%), perfectly matching today's wet conditions and 1-mile distance. He finished second at Haydock just 8 days ago, and carries the lowest weight in the field, giving him practical advantages beyond his proven wet-ground credentials.
Lowest rated, 9lbs below average
Carries lowest weight in field
Best record on this ground (5 from 11)
Most experienced (54 runs, field avg 20)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £15.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- R. Scott wins 8.7% of all their races. That is a strong record. A jockey who wins often gives a horse a better chance.
- K. Philippart de Foy wins 14% of their races at this course. Some trainers aim horses at particular tracks, and this one does well here.
- An average finish of 4.3 over recent runs. Finishing in the middle or further back so often counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Mr Professor is a course winner at Doncaster (won here in March 2024) and has won 3 of 10 races on soft ground (30% win rate), so today's wet conditions suit him. At seven years old with just 3 wins from 29 races overall, he's a long shot whose recent form (fifth and second place finishes) offers only modest encouragement.
One of few course winners (1 wins here)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £23.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- D. Nolan wins 9.6% of all their races. That is a strong record. A jockey who wins often gives a horse a better chance.
- Racing against weaker rivals than last time. Think of a Premier League team playing in the Championship. The drop in level helps.
- Only 12th last time out. That is not what we want to see before today's race.
TrackLab Insight
Andesite has never raced on wet ground, which is a significant unknown against this field on a day like today. He won at Chester and Thirsk in his last two starts before a poor 12th-place finish at Pontefract, suggesting the drying ground at those tracks suited him better than what's coming.
Never raced on wet ground
3 straight top-3 finishes
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £17.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- I. Jardine wins 10.5% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- Has an official rating of 83. This is a score from the official rater, and a higher number means a better horse. This horse is rated well.
- A 5.2% record at this course for I. Jardine. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Monoceros has a 50% win rate over 7 furlongs to a mile, which matches today's distance, but he's in poor recent form with an eighth-place finish at Haydock just 8 days ago after a 46.8-length beating. At 22/1, he looks a long shot struggling for momentum right now.
Outsider at 22/1
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.