Doncaster
·
Richard James Hone Memorial Handicap Stakes
Starts in
12h 7min
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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£1 wins £2.75 · 28 Strong chance
M. Appleby has won 10.8% of their races in their career
28
Our top pick for this race
Strong chance
Odds 11/4
£1 wins £2.75 · 28 Strong chance
Underrated horse
We think it's more likely to win than the odds suggest, so if it wins, it pays more than it should. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £3.75 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- M. Appleby has won 10.8% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- Has raced here 4 times without winning. This course has not suited the horse so far.
- The trainer's horses do not always finish their races. That raises questions about fitness and preparation.
TrackLab Insight
Top-rated by 4lbs and backed into 10/3 favourite, this horse has won at the highest class level and boasts the best record on soft ground in the field (1 win from 3). However, the recent form is mixed—two consecutive 3rd-place finishes at York and Doncaster suggest he's been run close but not quite getting it done.
Top rated by 4lbs
Best record on this ground (1 from 3)
Market favourite (10/3)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £5.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- R. Ryan wins 15.5% of all their races. That is a strong record. A jockey who wins often gives a horse a better chance.
- An 11.4% overall win rate for S. Williams. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- S. Williams has a 7.7% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Second in the market at 9/2, this horse has a glaring strength: three wins from three starts at Haydock Park. The draw at 10 is problematic (high-draw runners win just 5% of races here), and last week's 9th place at Ascot followed by victory at Haydock raises questions about consistency on different track types.
2nd in the market (9/2)
Underrated horse
We think it's more likely to win than the odds suggest, so if it wins, it pays more than it should. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £8.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 5.5% overall win rate for C. Hardie. Good jockeys make better decisions during a race.
- Has raced 3 times on this ground with a low win rate. Today's ground may not suit it.
- Last raced 21 days ago. That is a normal gap between runs.
TrackLab Insight
This five-year-old has finished in the top 3 in three straight races and won at Sandown 56 days ago, showing genuine recent form. However, his underlying win rate is weak at 11%, and he's never won on soft, standard, or good-to-firm ground—his only wins come on good ground, which he won't find here.
3 straight top-3 finishes
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £6.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This type of ground has not suited the horse: 6 runs without much success. Some horses prefer different ground.
- Has won at this distance 1 time before. A horse that has shown it can last the trip is a plus.
- A 7.5% record at this course for J. Camacho. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
With just one win from 22 races, this horse is struggling, yet he's shown some life recently with two top-3 finishes in his last three outings (2nd at Doncaster 41 days ago, 2nd at Haydock 50 days ago). His 17% win rate on soft ground is his only real selling point, but the overall profile suggests he's at the margins.
Top-3 finishes in 2 of last 3 races
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £8.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- 2 wins at this race length. Distance matters. If it is too short, the horse cannot use its staying power. If it is too long, the horse gets tired.
- Has an average of Class 6 in past races. Today's level should not be a shock.
- A 3yo+ race is not ideal for this horse. The entry rules are a small disadvantage.
TrackLab Insight
He's dropping three class levels from his usual haunts and won here 41 days ago, which is compelling. The major concern: he's never raced on soft ground, making this an untested condition—add the poor recent form at Ascot and Haydock (5th and 4th) and the picture becomes less certain.
Drops 3 classes from usual level
Never raced on wet ground
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £11.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- With an 8.7% win rate overall, R. Scott is one of the more dependable riders.
- The trend in recent results is up. Each run has been better than the one before, which is encouraging.
- Came 21st in the last race. It might have been an off day, or the horse may be losing form.
TrackLab Insight
This three-year-old has the best win rate in the field at 38% (winning roughly 1 in 3 races), but he's been absent for 127 days and has never raced on wet ground. The odds have shortened from 25/1 to 14/1, yet the return from a long layoff combined with an untested condition makes the layoff and ground concerns significant.
Never raced on wet ground
Absent 127 days (longest in field)
Best career win rate in field (1 in 3)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £13.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This type of ground has not suited the horse: 4 runs without much success. Some horses prefer different ground.
- Has an official rating of 99. This is a score from the official rater, and a higher number means a better horse. This horse is rated well.
- A 7.1% record at this course for K. Scott. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
This four-year-old wins roughly a third of her races and is specifically built for the 5-furlong trip, having won 6 of 11 attempts at this distance. The problem is stark: she's never won on soft ground (0 from 4) and hasn't raced in over five weeks, making wet conditions at Doncaster a genuine question mark.
Best record at this trip (6 from 11)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £15.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- D. Fentiman has won 5.6% of their races in their career. That steady record counts for a lot.
- T. Easterby has a 6.8% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Lowest-rated runner in the field, 9lbs below average, and carrying the lowest weight. He finished 3rd at York 15 days ago on the back of poor form at Haydock and Ayr, and he's never won on good ground—his two career wins came on heavy and good-to-soft surfaces, neither of which applies here.
Lowest rated, 9lbs below average
Carries lowest weight in field
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £21.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This type of ground has not suited the horse: 3 runs without much success. Some horses prefer different ground.
- Has had 43 career runs, so it is an experienced racehorse. Experience helps in a tough race.
- This trainer's horses often do not finish their races. That makes them harder to trust.
TrackLab Insight
The most experienced horse in the field with 44 races under her belt, she's won 20% of the time and finished in the top 3 in three straight races before a 10th at Ascot last time. Like several rivals, she's never won on soft ground (0 from 3), which is a real problem at Doncaster today.
Most experienced (44 runs, field avg 23)
3 straight top-3 finishes
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £26.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has run 1 time at this track with no wins yet. Some horses do not take to some courses.
- With an 8.0% win rate overall, A. Mullen is one of the more dependable riders.
- G. Tuer wins only 4.5% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Dropped two classes for this race, but he's run twice in the last 15 days (7th at Catterick just 7 days ago, 10th at York 15 days ago) with no wins in recent memory. Never raced on soft ground and sitting 28/1, the short turnaround and poor form make this a tough puzzle.
Drops 2 classes from usual level
Never raced on wet ground
Runs again after just 7 days
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.