Chepstow
·
Dunraven Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)
Starts in
2h 46min
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £4.33 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- P. Nicholls has a good 23.2% record here. A trainer who does well at one course is worth noting.
- P. Nicholls wins 22.7% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- 15 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
Racecourse debut for a Nathaniel colt trained by Paul Nicholls, one of the most successful yards in British racing. The pedigree reads well and the training provenance carries weight, though this remains a debut with zero form.
Racecourse debut
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £4.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- H. Cobden wins 21.3% of all their races. That is a strong record. A jockey who wins often gives a horse a better chance.
- H. Cobden wins 22.4% of their races at this course. Knowing the track is an advantage for any jockey.
- This is a 15-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Racecourse debut for a 4-year-old backed by Emma Lavelle's yard, which has a strong record with Harry Cobden in the saddle. No form exists yet, so the jockey-trainer combination is the main positive here.
Racecourse debut
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £5.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- J. Tizzard wins 14.5% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- This horse is happy on Good To Soft ground. When the ground suits, a horse can run to its best.
- 15 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
A 4-year-old debut runner by Workforce trained by Joe Tizzard, whose record with jockey Brendan Powell is solid (144 wins from 1,059 races). The bloodlines suggest ability, but starting this late in a horse's career means no form to assess.
Racecourse debut
£1 wins £8 · 12 Solid chance
S. Bowen wins 19.2% of all their races
12
Underrated horse
We think it's more likely to win than the odds suggest, so if it wins, it pays more than it should. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £9.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- S. Bowen wins 19.2% of all their races. That is a strong record. A jockey who wins often gives a horse a better chance.
- An 18.9% overall win rate for O. Murphy. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- A 15-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
A debut runner at 4 years old ridden by Sean Bowen for Olly Murphy, a partnership with an outstanding combined record (326 wins from 1,314 races). The pedigree offers nothing obvious, and debut form remains genuinely unpredictable.
Racecourse debut
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £7.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- S. Thomas has a good 18.7% record here. A trainer who does well at one course is worth noting.
- A 21.9% win rate at this course for D. Johnston. Jockeys who know a track well can pick the best ground and time their run.
- 15 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
Racecourse debut for a horse sired by Arrigo, who has proven a reliable source of racing ability, out of a Presenting mare. The pedigree reads better than many in this field, but Sam Thomas's jockey Dylan Johnston will be delivering a complete first-timer into a wide-open race.
Racecourse debut
£1 wins £8 · 7 Could surprise
C. Longsdon has won 13.7% of their races in their career
7
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £9.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- C. Longsdon has won 13.7% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- This horse is happy on Good To Soft ground. When the ground suits, a horse can run to its best.
- C. Longsdon has a 5.7% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Racecourse debut for a 4-year-old with no prior form, so this is genuinely a pig in a poke. Longsdon's yard is firing winners this season, but a debut runner in a wide-open field carries obvious unknowns.
Racecourse debut
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £9.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- H. Skelton wins 20.3% of all their races. That is a strong record. A jockey who wins often gives a horse a better chance.
- D. Skelton wins 18.7% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- This is a 15-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Market favourite at 9/2 for his racecourse debut at age 4, backed by Dan Skelton's phenomenal yard record (544 wins from 2,523 races). Order Of St George and Presenting in the pedigree carry solid appeal, but debut runners always carry fundamental unknowns regardless of starting price.
Racecourse debut
Market favourite (9/2)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £9.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- The starting stall helps today. At this course, some stalls have done better than others.
- Today's ground is Good To Soft, and that suits this horse. Like athletes who prefer one type of surface, horses have favourite ground.
- This is a 15-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
A 4-year-old debut runner who has waited unusually long to get to the track—this raises questions about what the horse has been doing until now. Mrs C. Williams' small Welsh operation has winners on the board this season, but form is zero.
Racecourse debut
£1 wins £12 · 5 Long shot
P. Hobbs & Johnson White wins 18.4% of their races at this course
5
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £13.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- P. Hobbs & Johnson White wins 18.4% of their races at this course. Some trainers aim horses at particular tracks, and this one does well here.
- P. Hobbs & Johnson White has won 15.2% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- 15 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
Making his racecourse debut at five years old marks this as an older, unproven runner in a field of unknowns. The pedigree (Capri and Clodovil) points toward a horse built for distance, but debut form is impossible to predict.
Racecourse debut
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £23.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- No wins at this distance yet. We cannot tell if the race is too long, too short or just right.
- 1 run here without a win. That counts against the horse. The track layout may not suit it.
- This is a 15-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
The only runner in this 15-strong field carrying a published rating—89—which sets him apart as the logical benchmark. His sole race finished fourth at Chepstow 256 days ago, and he's never experienced slightly soft ground, making this a genuine test of whether he can improve off that form.
Never raced on slightly soft ground
Lightly raced (1 career races)
Absent 256 days (longest in field)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £23.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- D. Skelton wins 18.7% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- D. Skelton wins 18.7% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- 15 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
A filly making her racecourse debut at 4 years old, which is notably late to start—most get going years earlier. Dan Skelton's record with jockey Tristan Durrell is respectable, but this remains an unproven debut runner with no form.
Racecourse debut
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £34.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- There is £2,451 in prize money in this race. That attracts good horses, and this one looks to belong among them.
- D. Horsford has won 13.1% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- A 0% record at this course for D. Horsford. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
A 5-year-old making their first racecourse appearance is genuinely unusual—most horses race years earlier. No form to assess whatsoever, and the jockey-trainer pairing has a thin record together.
Racecourse debut
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £81.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- J. O'Shea has won 7.8% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- With a 13.0% win rate overall, C. Deutsch is one of the more dependable riders.
- 15 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
A 5-year-old debut runner with decent breeding—Nathaniel and Sinndar in the pedigree—but jockey and trainer are together for the first time here. Beyond the bloodlines, there is nothing concrete to work with.
Racecourse debut
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £126.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- H. Reed wins 9.6% of all their races. That is a strong record. A jockey who wins often gives a horse a better chance.
- M. Blake has won 10.6% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- A 15-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
A debut runner at 100/1 with no prior form and a jockey-trainer pairing that has only three wins from 19 races together. Michael Blake's yard has winners on the board this season, but this horse arrives as a complete unknown quantity.
Racecourse debut
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £81.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- T. Carroll wins 9.0% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- T. Carroll wins 8.8% of their races at this course. Some trainers aim horses at particular tracks, and this one does well here.
- A 15-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
A filly debut runner backed by Tony Carroll's unstoppable yard (136 winners already this season), suggesting good preparation. By Jack Hobbs and carrying decent breeding, but racecourse debuts remain inherently unpredictable, and the trainer and jockey are together for the first time.
Racecourse debut
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.