Chepstow
·
Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)
Starts in
1h 39min
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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£1 wins £4 · 21 Strong chance
O. Murphy has won 18.9% of their races in their career
21
Our top pick for this race
Strong chance
Odds 4/1
£1 wins £4 · 21 Strong chance
Underrated horse
We think it's more likely to win than the odds suggest, so if it wins, it pays more than it should. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £5.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- O. Murphy has won 18.9% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- An 11-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Marked as underrated and priced 7/1, yet has not raced in 195 days and comes back from an 8th-place finish at Perth. Zero wins on both good and soft ground from seven attempts combined, suggesting the ground here offers no obvious comfort, and the long break raises questions about readiness.
2nd in the market (7/1)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £5.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- C. Williams has a good 28.6% record here. A trainer who does well at one course is worth noting.
- A Chase Turf race works in this horse's favour. Horses often do best in one type of race and struggle in others.
- An average finish of 3.7 over recent runs. Finishing in the middle or further back so often counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
The editorial pick, rated 4lbs clear of the field and ridden by an in-form jockey-trainer combination. However, Great Dance hasn't won in twelve months and has zero wins from four attempts on good ground—today's slightly soft conditions offer some relief, but the recent form reads as frustratingly close without crossing the line (two 2nds and two 3rds in the last six races).
Top rated by 4lbs
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £6.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This is a Chase Turf race, and it suits this horse. Running in the right type of race matters.
- A prize fund of £4,700 is healthy. When trainers aim at valuable races, they usually have faith in their runner.
- This is an 11-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
The only course winner here (1 from 6 at Chepstow) and holds the best career win rate in the field at roughly 1 in 5—both standout credentials. Form has deteriorated badly in the last 81 days (5th, 2nd, 5th), though the horse does suit slightly soft ground and has won once from three attempts on this type.
Only course winner (1 from 6 here)
Best record on this ground (1 from 3)
Best career win rate in field (1 in 5)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £5.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- 2m 4½f is a good distance for this horse. Over its best distance, it can run its own race.
- With £4,700 in prize money, this is a competitive race. The horse has been entered for a reason.
- T. Ellis wins only 0% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Market favourite at 10/3 with genuine momentum: four wins from his last six races and three straight top-3 finishes. The critical caveat is that he has never raced on slightly soft ground—all his excellent form (31% win rate) has come on fast, dry going, leaving a significant unknown in today's conditions.
Never raced on slightly soft ground
3 straight top-3 finishes
Market favourite (10/3)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £19.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has raced 7 times on this ground with a low win rate. Today's ground may not suit it.
- Today's race is over 2m 4½f. That distance looks right for this horse. Running over the right distance matters a lot.
- M. Young has a 2.8% overall win rate, which is on the low side. That may mean the horse is not at its best.
TrackLab Insight
Eight years old, 37 races, and still winless—the most experienced horse in the field by far but weighed down by that blunt reality. Recent form does show genuine competitiveness (3rd, 2nd, and 5th in his last three), and he returns just one day after a 3rd-place finish, but the absence of a single win across 37 attempts is a structural ceiling that cannot be ignored.
Lowest rated, 21lbs below average
Carries lowest weight in field
Most experienced (37 runs, field avg 16)
Runs again after just 1 days
8
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £9.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A low win rate on this ground from 3 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
- Today's race is over 2m 4½f. That distance looks right for this horse. Running over the right distance matters a lot.
- Has had 30 days off since its last race. That is a routine gap that should not help or hurt.
TrackLab Insight
A reliable place-getter with back-to-back top-3 finishes in two of his last three races, but a glaring weakness emerges on slightly soft ground: zero wins from three starts on this condition. At eight years old with just one win from 22 races, he remains a perennial bridesmaids candidate rather than a contender.
Top-3 finishes in 2 of last 3 races
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £8.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Today's race is over 2m 4½f. That distance looks right for this horse. Running over the right distance matters a lot.
- This is a Chase Turf race, and it suits this horse. Running in the right type of race matters.
- L. Blackford wins only 4.5% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
The only winner at this exact distance (1 from 6 at 2m 4f) and arrived at Warwick with a win just 168 days ago. However, he carries a serious structural weakness: zero wins from any soft or heavy-ground attempt (0 from 7 combined), making slightly soft conditions a genuine concern despite his recent upswing.
Only winner at this distance
Best record at this trip (1 from 6)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £15.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- This is a Chase Turf race, and it suits this horse. Running in the right type of race matters.
- S. Hosie wins only 4.5% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Absent for 196 days—the longest layoff in the field—and comes back to ground that does not suit: zero wins from four attempts on soft conditions, plus a fall in a Class 4 event just 244 days ago. Limited data on his return and structural concerns over readiness make this a risky proposition.
Absent 196 days (longest in field)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £15.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- This horse is suited to this Chase Turf race. A horse in its best type of race can just focus on running.
- Last raced 17 days ago. That is a normal gap between runs.
TrackLab Insight
Winless from 11 attempts and has managed only three top-3 finishes in his entire career—a horse that consistently runs in the fourth or fifth slot. Recent form shows two consecutive 4th-place finishes, suggesting he remains stuck in that frustrating zone of always being close but never quite arriving.
Winless from 11 career races
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £17.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A prize fund of £4,700 is healthy. When trainers aim at valuable races, they usually have faith in their runner.
- 2m 4½f is a good distance for this horse. Over its best distance, it can run its own race.
- S. Lewis wins only 0% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Two wins from 14 races puts him among the more successful in this field, and his record on slightly soft ground reads positively (1 win from 4 starts). Recent form is mixed after a 4th-place finish 23 days ago, but he holds winning form at this distance and at this type of ground.
One of the more successful in the field (2 career wins)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £21.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- Today's race is over 2m 4½f. That distance looks right for this horse. Running over the right distance matters a lot.
- A 7.4% record at this course for T. Vaughan. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Still searching for his first win or place from just five career races at seven years old, with no wins from either jockey-trainer combination (0 from 4). A pulled-up run at Warwick 184 days ago is the most recent marker, and time is running out for a breakthrough at this age.
Relatively inexperienced (5 career races)
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.