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Chepstow

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Lysaght Cup Novices' Limited Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)
Starts in
1h 6min
Jumps race · big fences · weighted to be fair About 2 miles Good ground Mid-level race 5 runners £6,179 prize money E/W: also pays on 2nd, at 1/4 odds
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score

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1 Desertmore News
J. Andrews · T. Ellis · 6yo · 11st 10lb · Official rating 122
£1 wins £1.50 · 25 Strong chance
A 5-runner race works well for this horse
Form Distance
25
Our top pick for this race
Strong chance
Odds 6/4
£1 wins £1.50 · 25 Strong chance
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £2.50 back.

How odds work
✓ Field size ✓ Horse Career Win Rate ✓ Days since last jump run
Won 2 of last 5 Won at this distance 1 time
Why this score
  • A 5-runner race works well for this horse. The number of runners changes the pace and how much room a horse has.
  • 21 days since the last run. That is a usual break, so there is nothing to read into it.
  • T. Ellis wins only 0% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
The market favourite at 2/1, but recent form has deteriorated—he was third at Ffos Las 21 days ago, beaten 8.2 lengths, after a long absence from Sandown. His best record is at two miles (1 win from 3 races) and he wins roughly 1 in 2 races overall, yet the gap to the top-rated runner is significant and a 172-day absence from one rival counts against him here.
Best record at this trip (1 from 3) Best career win rate in field (1 in 2) Market favourite (2/1)
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £3.00 back.

How odds work
Won 1 of last 5 Raced here before Won at this distance 1 time
Why this score
  • This is a 5-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
  • Has raced 5 times on this ground with a low win rate. Today's ground may not suit it.
  • A 7.7% record at this course for J. & A.J. O'Neill. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Underrated at 10/3, just two pounds behind the top-rated runner on the figures and sharper in condition after finishing second at Uttoxeter only 19 days ago. She has won 2 of 5 on soft ground and shows genuine upward trajectory, though she carries a poor record on good-to-soft ground (0 wins from 5) that directly contradicts today's conditions—a real puzzle that limits her appeal despite the model's rating.
2nd in the market (10/3)
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £3.25 back.

How odds work
Has won at this course and distance Won 1 of last 5 Won here 1 time Won at this distance 1 time
Why this score
  • This is a 5-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
  • Mrs J. Williams has a good 20.6% record here. A trainer who does well at one course is worth noting.
  • Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
TrackLab Insight
The only runner other than Black Hawk Eagle to have won this course and distance, with a respectable 31% career win rate across 13 races, but his recent form is stale—fourth at Newton Abbot 37 days ago and another fourth at this track 194 days ago.
Has won over this course and distance
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £3.75 back.

How odds work
Won 0 of last 5 Raced here before Likes this ground (wins 36% of runs) Won at this distance 5 times
Why this score
  • A 5-runner race works well for this horse. The number of runners changes the pace and how much room a horse has.
  • This horse is suited to this Chase Turf race. A horse in its best type of race can just focus on running.
  • Mrs C. Williams has a 7.1% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
The lowest-rated runner in the field, 6 pounds below average, and carrying the lowest weight, but she is almost entirely reliant on Ludlow form—winning twice there but struggling badly on left-handed galloping tracks elsewhere (1 win from 10 races). Her third-place finish at Worcester 23 days ago offers a glimmer, yet Chepstow will be a significant step up in class and course-type that her record suggests she cannot handle.
Lowest rated, 6lbs below average Carries lowest weight in field
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £5.50 back.

How odds work
Has won at this course and distance Back after 172 days off Won 1 of last 5 Won here 1 time Likes this ground (wins 50% of runs)
Why this score
  • A 5-runner race works well for this horse. The number of runners changes the pace and how much room a horse has.
  • This is a Chase Turf race, and it suits this horse. Running in the right type of race matters.
  • This type of ground has not suited the horse: 4 runs without much success. Some horses prefer different ground.
TrackLab Insight
The course-and-distance winner at Chepstow 234 days ago and most experienced runner in the field with 28 races under his belt, but his recent form is weak—fourth at Uttoxeter 172 days ago, beaten 44 lengths, and that long layoff is a real concern at age 8. He has won 2 of his last 4 on good-to-soft ground, which suits today's conditions, making him the editorial chief danger despite the fitness question.
Has won over this course and distance Best record on this ground (2 from 4) Most experienced (28 runs, field avg 17) Absent 172 days (longest in field)
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance 20–39 Strong chance 12–19 Solid chance 6–11 Could surprise Under 6 Long shot Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.

What these words mean

Underrated horse
We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
Our top pick
The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
TrackLab Score
Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
Ground
How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
Race level (Class)
From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
Group, Grade and Listed
The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
Handicap
The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
Maiden
A race for horses that haven't won yet.
Novice
A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
Chase, hurdle and bumper
Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
Distance (m and f)
m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
Each way
A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
Weight
How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
Jockey claim
An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
Headgear
Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.
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