Chepstow
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LSL Racing 'National Hunt' Maiden Hurdle Race (Div I) (GBB Race)
Live
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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£1 wins 57p · 57 Very strong chance
P. Nicholls wins 23.2% of their races at this course
57
Our top pick for this race
Very strong chance
Odds 4/7
£1 wins 57p · 57 Very strong chance
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.57 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- P. Nicholls wins 23.2% of their races at this course. Some trainers aim horses at particular tracks, and this one does well here.
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- S. Twiston-Davies has a 16.0% win rate at this course. They have not had much luck here. Knowing the track helps, and that is missing.
TrackLab Insight
The only course winner in the field—won here 216 days ago on debut—and is the market favourite at 4/5. However, the long gap since that single victory on fast ground raises questions about whether today's slightly soft conditions and the step up in class will suit.
Only course winner (1 from 1 here)
Lightly raced (1 career races)
Market favourite (4/5)
10
St James's Finest
£1 wins £2.50 · 23 Strong chance
H. Skelton wins 20.3% of all their races
23
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £3.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- H. Skelton wins 20.3% of all their races. That is a strong record. A jockey who wins often gives a horse a better chance.
- Has won over this distance 1 time. We know the horse can last this far, which removes one big question.
- Not rated highly by the official rater. The rating reflects what the horse has done so far, and it is modest.
TrackLab Insight
Only winner at two miles in the entire field, having won a Class 2 race at Windsor in January—the highest-class victory on show here. But that win came on fast ground 290 days ago, and he's never raced on slightly soft conditions before.
Only winner at this distance
Never raced on slightly soft ground
Lightly raced (2 career races)
8
Plan de Stan
£1 wins £10 · 6 Could surprise
A 21.7% win rate at this course for C. Quinn
6
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £11.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 21.7% win rate at this course for C. Quinn. Jockeys who know a track well can pick the best ground and time their run.
- Finishing 2nd last time is encouraging. A horse that finishes well is usually in good shape.
- A 13-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Four-year-old with two races and a second place to his name, but hasn't run in 319 days—the longest absence in the field—before resurfacing with a sixth just a day ago. Has never tested slightly soft ground, a significant unknown against recent poor form.
Never raced on slightly soft ground
Lightly raced (2 career races)
Absent 319 days (longest in field)
£1 wins £18 · 4 Long shot
P. Hobbs & Johnson White wins 18.4% of their races at this course
4
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £19.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- P. Hobbs & Johnson White wins 18.4% of their races at this course. Some trainers aim horses at particular tracks, and this one does well here.
- P. Hobbs & Johnson White has won 15.2% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- 13 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
Four-year-old debutant stepping out for Philip Hobbs and Johnson White, a partnership with a solid 18 wins from 121 races together. No track record to assess, but the yard's experience with hurdle debuts at least suggests professional preparation.
Racecourse debut
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £29.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- B. Jones has won 15.7% of their races in their career. That steady record counts for a lot.
- The Good To Soft ground works in this horse's favour. The ground makes a big difference in racing, and today it helps.
- A 6% record at this course for K. Woollacott. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Five-year-old making a belated racecourse debut, suggesting a longer preparation than most newcomers receive. By Feel Like Dancing out of a Tagula mare, the breeding points toward a horse built for stamina rather than early speed.
Racecourse debut
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £101.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- With a 15.3% win rate overall, J. O'Neill Jr. is one of the more dependable riders.
- A 12.5% overall win rate for J. & A.J. O'Neill. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- A 13-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Tenth on debut a day ago and now sent out again immediately—a sign the trainer saw enough to give him another chance quickly. At 50/1 with no track experience beyond that single run, this is truly uncharted territory.
Racecourse debut
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £151.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- F. Gingell has won 18.7% of their races in their career. That steady record counts for a lot.
- The Good To Soft ground works in this horse's favour. The ground makes a big difference in racing, and today it helps.
- Only 10th last time out. That is not what we want to see before today's race.
TrackLab Insight
Has raced three times without a win but did finish third just a day ago at Newton Abbot—the only top-3 finish in this field from recent racing. Has never stepped out on slightly soft ground, making today's conditions an unknown factor.
Never raced on slightly soft ground
Lightly raced (3 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £101.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This horse is happy on Good To Soft ground. When the ground suits, a horse can run to its best.
- The starting stall helps today. At this course, some stalls have done better than others.
- A 13-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Four-year-old racecourse debutant trained by Mrs C. Williams, whose yard has already sent out 3 winners this season, suggesting competent preparation. Making his first start with an unfamiliar jockey pairing adds another layer of uncertainty.
Racecourse debut
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £301.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- K. Turner has a good 100% record here. A trainer who does well at one course is worth noting.
- K. Turner wins 16.3% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- 13 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
At 7 years old, this horse is arriving at the track far later than any other runner here, raising serious questions about what has delayed his racing career until now. Making his debut with minimal infrastructure suggests this is a genuine gamble by the yard.
Racecourse debut
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £29.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 33.3% win rate at this course for S. Mullins. Trainers who know a course often send out their horses well suited to it.
- A 16.4% overall win rate for S. Mullins. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- Has not raced for 310 days. That is a long time away, and we cannot be sure the horse will be fit enough.
TrackLab Insight
Single outing five races back at Doncaster where he finished fifth in a Class 4 race, then disappeared for 310 days before a brief reappearance 90 days ago. Too little evidence to judge, and he's never run on slightly soft ground.
Never raced on slightly soft ground
Lightly raced (1 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £81.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Carrying 158 lbs today, which is a reasonable weight. Less weight means less effort, especially late in the race when horses tire.
- This horse is happy on Good To Soft ground. When the ground suits, a horse can run to its best.
- C. Williams has a 2.8% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Five-year-old making his racecourse debut for Christian Williams, a yard that has sent out 25 winners already this season. By Westerner out of a Presenting mare, the pedigree suggests a horse built for staying power on a hurdle.
Racecourse debut
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £101.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 33.3% win rate at this course for I. Chanin. Trainers who know a course often send out their horses well suited to it.
- Finished 4th in the last race, which is a good result. A good last run suggests the horse is in good shape.
- Not rated highly by the official rater. The rating reflects what the horse has done so far, and it is modest.
TrackLab Insight
Fourth on debut 227 days ago at Exeter, then disappeared before being sent out again just a week ago—now back again today. Has never raced on slightly soft ground and shows no signs of progression across his limited outings.
Never raced on slightly soft ground
Lightly raced (1 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £251.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- Today's ground is Good To Soft, and that suits this horse. Like athletes who prefer one type of surface, horses have favourite ground.
- A 0% record at this course for T. Ellis. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
The only mare in the field with the lowest weight (151lbs), but three races have yielded just one top-3 finish and a pattern of heavy defeats in recent runs. Tenth and eighth at the last two outings suggests she is struggling against this company.
Lightly raced (3 career races)
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.