Chepstow
·
LSL Racing 'National Hunt' Maiden Hurdle Race (Div II) (GBB Race)
Starts in
34min
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
18+ | Gamble responsibly: BeGambleAware.org Ad: we earn commission if you join a bookmaker via our links.
£1 wins 53p · 59 Very strong chance
D. Skelton has won 18.7% of their races in their career
59
Our top pick for this race
Very strong chance
Odds 8/15
£1 wins 53p · 59 Very strong chance
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.53 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- D. Skelton has won 18.7% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- D. Skelton wins 18.7% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- 12 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
Making his racecourse debut at age 5 is unusual and raises questions about his preparation, but the market has backed him in at 5/6, suggesting confidence from the yard. Dan Skelton and Harry Skelton have a strong record together (544 wins from 2523 races), but there is no form whatsoever to assess—this is a complete unknown stepping onto a racecourse for the first time.
Racecourse debut
Market favourite (5/6)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £6.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- Finishing 3rd last time is encouraging. A horse that finishes well is usually in good shape.
- D. Horsford wins only 0% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
This horse has finished second and third in consecutive races, narrowly beaten both times (by 2 lengths and 1.8 lengths)—the closest margins of any runner here. The 244-day absence is a concern, but the pattern suggests he is running well within a competitive level and may be approaching a breakthrough, though Dan Horsford's new jockey pairing with Paul O'Brien carries no track record together.
Lightly raced (2 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £11.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- With a 21.3% win rate overall, H. Cobden is one of the more dependable riders.
- J. & A.J. O'Neill wins only 7.7% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Three races without a win or top-3 finish tells a clear story: this horse is struggling to find his level. Most recently fifth just six days ago, he has shown only mid-field form and drifted dramatically from 1/12 to 16/1, suggesting the market has given up on him here.
Lightly raced (3 career races)
£1 wins £8 · 8 Could surprise
A. Honeyball has won 17.9% of their races in their career
8
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £9.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A. Honeyball has won 17.9% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- Today's ground is Good To Soft, and that suits this horse. Like athletes who prefer one type of surface, horses have favourite ground.
- Only 9th last time out. That is not what we want to see before today's race.
TrackLab Insight
He showed real promise with a second-place finish at Wincanton, but that was nearly a year ago and he has since run ninth at a much higher class level. The 307-day gap is the longest absence in the field, which raises concerns about his current fitness and readiness—Anthony Honeyball's yard is well-regarded, but this represents a significant unknown after such a long time away.
Never raced on slightly soft ground
Lightly raced (2 career races)
Absent 307 days (longest in field)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £21.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 13.1% overall win rate for N. Mulholland. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- With a 9.3% win rate overall, C. O'Farrell is one of the more dependable riders.
- The official rating suggests this horse has work to do. Lower-rated horses need to improve to win.
TrackLab Insight
Another racecourse debutant at age 5, which is late in the day and suggests this horse has taken his time to get here. Like A Sight To Sea, there is simply no form to work with, and Neil Mulholland's record with Conor O'Farrell offers only modest encouragement (43 wins from 313 races together).
Racecourse debut
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £29.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- Came home 3rd last time out. A good recent run often carries over to the next race.
- Last raced 24 days ago. That is a normal gap between runs.
TrackLab Insight
One career race, one third-place finish at this same course 24 days ago—that is the entire story. Tom Lacey's yard is firing (37 winners this season), but this horse has done nothing more than finish third once, and the jump from that effort to winning here is a significant leap with such limited evidence.
Lightly raced (1 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £23.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- F. O'Brien has won 15.9% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- F. O'Brien has won 15.9% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- An 11.6% record at this course for F. O'Brien. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
A six-year-old with just one race under his belt and a fourth-place finish from 13 days ago suggests he may be a late developer. Never having raced on slightly soft ground, and without a single top-3 finish to his name, Potter has little to show that he can handle this field.
Never raced on slightly soft ground
Lightly raced (1 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £26.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Today's ground is Good To Soft, and that suits this horse. Like athletes who prefer one type of surface, horses have favourite ground.
- Starting from a good position. On some tracks, starting on one side can save ground.
- C. Boultbee-Brooks wins only 7.4% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Making his debut for Clive Boultbee-Brooks at 40/1, with no prior form to assess and limited yard record (three wins from three races is impressive but a tiny sample). This is another complete unknown stepping onto a racecourse for the first time, and the price reflects the uncertainty.
Racecourse debut
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £67.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- D. Pipe has won 14.3% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- D. Pipe has won 14.3% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- The official rating suggests this horse has work to do. Lower-rated horses need to improve to win.
TrackLab Insight
One top-3 finish in two career races (third just 13 days ago) shows he can run close, but he was beaten 33 lengths in his most recent outing and has never raced on ground like this. At 33/1 having drifted dramatically from 1/12, the market has priced him out—David Pipe's stable is in form but Navarau himself remains winless and untested on slightly soft ground.
Never raced on slightly soft ground
Lightly raced (2 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £67.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- An 18.7% overall win rate for F. Gingell. Good jockeys make better decisions during a race.
- No wins at this distance yet. We cannot tell if the race is too long, too short or just right.
- Came 9th in the last race. It might have been an off day, or the horse may be losing form.
TrackLab Insight
Two races, two bottom-half finishes (ninth and sixth most recently), and a long 255-day gap between his first and second runs raise major questions about his wellbeing and racing rhythm. Joe Tizzard's stable is in great form (52 winners), but Squib himself has shown nothing to suggest he can deliver here, especially having never raced on ground like this.
Never raced on slightly soft ground
Lightly raced (2 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £126.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This horse is happy on Good To Soft ground. When the ground suits, a horse can run to its best.
- With an 11.3% win rate overall, A. Wedge is one of the more dependable riders.
- Mrs C. Williams wins 8.1% of their races overall. That is below the top trainers.
TrackLab Insight
One race, one sixth-place finish just 18 days ago—barely enough information to form any judgment at all. The pairing of Adam Wedge with Mrs C. Williams is new and untested, and at 100/1 there is no expectation in the market that this horse will trouble the judge.
Never raced on slightly soft ground
Lightly raced (1 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £29.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- Finished 2nd in the last race, which is a good result. A good last run suggests the horse is in good shape.
- The official rating suggests this horse has work to do. Lower-rated horses need to improve to win.
TrackLab Insight
A mare with two races, one second-place finish at this course 216 days ago but most recently a tenth-place finish three days ago, suggesting her form has deteriorated sharply. The long absence between those runs and her recent poor effort signal she is struggling to find consistency at this level.
Lightly raced (2 career races)
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.