Bath
·
Sw Hire Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Stakes
Starts in
56min
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.
Our top pick for this race
Strong chance
Odds 11/4
£1 wins £2.75 · 25 Strong chance
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £3.75 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A low win rate on this ground from 3 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
- Mr F. Yarham wins 25% of their races at this course. Knowing the track is an advantage for any jockey.
- A 3.3% record at this course for D. Cunha. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Lilykoy is the market favourite at 9/4 after winning at Wolverhampton 20 days ago over two miles, which aligns with her strength: she has won one from three races at long distances (a 33% win rate over 2m+). At just three years old, she is the youngest horse in the field and has finished in the top three four times from ten career races. She has never won on normal ground, however, which is a material weakness for a horse asked to run at unfamiliar conditions immediately after success.
Market favourite (9/4)
£1 wins £4.50 · 15 Solid chance
Has had 40 career runs, so it is an experienced racehorse
15
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £5.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has had 40 career runs, so it is an experienced racehorse. Experience helps in a tough race.
- Dropped to an easier race today. It is like being the big fish in a smaller pond. The lower standard should suit.
- A 0% career win rate for Mr H. March. That is on the low side and could matter today.
TrackLab Insight
Sanitiser is the only course winner at this distance in the field and has won one from four races over two miles or longer, making him ideally suited to the 2m 1f trip here. However, he has been absent for 197 days—by far the longest absence in the race—and carries the Underrated label despite soft ground being his playground: he has won twice from nine starts on wet surfaces. The risk is that the extended break combined with a jockey-trainer pairing that has failed to win from two attempts together makes his return uncertain.
Only winner at this distance
Best record at this trip (1 from 4)
Absent 197 days (longest in field)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £6.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has raced 5 times on this ground with a low win rate. Today's ground may not suit it.
- Back racing after just 6 days. A quick return usually means the horse came out of its last race in good shape.
- N. King has a 0% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
La Trinite is marked Underrated despite having never won from 13 career races, but she has finished in the top three six times and ran just six days ago—the quickest turnaround in the field—suggesting stable confidence. At four years old, she is among the youngest and carries just 144lbs, but her record on normal ground is thin and she finished nearly 23 lengths behind the winner at Southwell most recently. Her trainer has a 30% win rate with this jockey, which is a small positive note.
Runs again after just 6 days
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £7.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Mr R. Birkett has a good 28.6% record here. Knowing the course is one of a jockey's biggest strengths.
- A prize fund of £3,278 is healthy. When trainers aim at valuable races, they usually have faith in their runner.
- J. Berry has an 8% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Dereham carries the Underrated label and boasts a 25% win rate on normal ground—the best record in this field for these conditions—with one success from four starts here. At 10 years old, he has won four times from 31 races and finished in the top three in his last three outings, most recently third at Ripon just 48 days ago. However, the jockey-trainer pairing remains winless from three attempts together, and he struggles on galloping tracks, which could be relevant to Bath's layout.
Best record on this ground (1 from 4)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £5.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has run 2 times at this track with no wins yet. Some horses do not take to some courses.
- Its average finish over the last three runs is 3.7. That is steady. Horses that finish near the front often do so again.
- Mr J. Loughnane wins 0% of their races overall. That is below the average for professional jockeys.
TrackLab Insight
Star of Jupiter has won just once from 25 races (a 4% win rate) and finished fourth at Bath just 11 days ago, beaten by 14 lengths—he has shown no aptitude for this track. His single win came at Wolverhampton on standard ground, and he has never won on normal or good ground combined, making today's conditions a significant concern. The jockey-trainer partnership has never won from eight attempts together, underlining a pairing without chemistry.
Mid-range in the market (17/2)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £7.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 9-year-old is in the best racing years. Horses at this age have both strength and experience.
- Facing weaker rivals than last time out. When a horse drops to an easier race, it often finds things easier.
- D. Pipe wins only 0% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Ocean Heights won at Newton Abbot just 31 days ago and has five career wins from 43 races, placing him among the more successful in the field. Yet he finished fourth at the same course 31 days later, losing by nearly 12 lengths, and he has never won on normal ground in nine attempts here. The jockey-trainer combination is meeting for the first time, adding another layer of uncertainty to a horse whose strength lies on faster ground over shorter distances.
One of the more successful in the field (5 career wins)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £15.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- The Good To Soft ground works in this horse's favour. The ground makes a big difference in racing, and today it helps.
- A 0% career win rate for Mr M. Tidman. That is on the low side and could matter today.
TrackLab Insight
Flamingo Rose owns the best win rate in this field at one win in five races, though that sole victory came 468 days ago at Lingfield and she has shown nothing since—her most recent run was fifth at the same track just two months back. She has never won on normal ground, losing by 12 lengths just 62 days ago, and the jockey-trainer pairing is untested together. At 22/1, the odds reflect a horse whose single success is increasingly distant.
Best career win rate in field (1 in 5)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £81.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has had 57 career runs, so it is an experienced racehorse. Experience helps in a tough race.
- No wins at this distance yet. We cannot tell if the race is too long, too short or just right.
- A 2.4% career win rate for B. Murphy. That is below the top trainers.
TrackLab Insight
Chillhi is by far the most experienced runner with 58 career races, nearly two and a half times more than the field average, but his recent form is bleak: ninth at Bath just 11 days ago after pulling up at Newton Abbot 92 days earlier. He won twice from six starts on standard-to-slow ground, which suits the current conditions, yet he has won nothing on normal ground and carries a poor record on tight left-handed tracks. The jockey is riding him for the first time, and at 80/1 the market has effectively written him off.
Most experienced (58 runs, field avg 23)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £81.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- Dropped to an easier race today. It is like being the big fish in a smaller pond. The lower standard should suit.
- T. Gretton wins only 0% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Assured is winless from 11 career races with only a single top-three finish across the entire record, and her recent form has deteriorated sharply—ninth at Nottingham 18 days ago, beaten by 47 lengths. She has never won on normal ground and carries the second-lowest weight in the field at 142lbs, but that reflects a lack of competitive ability rather than an advantage. At 66/1, the odds correctly price a horse with almost no evidence of capability at this level.
Winless from 11 career races
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £67.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has raced 9 times on this ground with a low win rate. Today's ground may not suit it.
- Miss L. Chance has a good 100% record here. Knowing the course is one of a jockey's biggest strengths.
- Stall 2 is a worry. At some courses, some starting stalls are a big disadvantage.
TrackLab Insight
Stopherandgo is rated 17lbs below the field average and has won just once from 24 career races—that solitary success more than three years ago at Wincanton in March 2023. Her recent form is dire: fifth at Nottingham 18 days ago, then ninth at Southwell just a week before that, beaten by 139 lengths. She has won on good-to-soft ground but never on normal conditions, and at 9 years old shows no signs of reversing a long trend of underperformance.
Lowest rated, 17lbs below average
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £51.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- The Good To Soft ground works in this horse's favour. The ground makes a big difference in racing, and today it helps.
- H. Main wins only 6.2% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Paraone is lightly raced with just three career starts and no wins or top-three finishes, making her the least experienced runner in the field by a significant margin. She carries the lowest weight at 135lbs but has finished fifth, seventh and ninth in her three outings, and ran 22 days ago without placing—there is no evidence here of capability at this class. Drawing the high number (11) also works against her at Bath, where high-draw runners have a 0% win rate from races on this card.
Carries lowest weight in field
Lightly raced (3 career races)