Bath
·
Mj Church Nursery Handicap Stakes
Starts in
1h 28min
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.
Our top pick for this race
Strong chance
Odds 3/1
£1 wins £3 · 22 Strong chance
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £4.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- C. Bishop wins 9.9% of all their races. That is a strong record. A jockey who wins often gives a horse a better chance.
- C. Bishop wins only 11.4% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Lightly raced with only two career starts, he showed promise with a second-place finish but has just returned after 58 days away and his most recent outing was an eighth-place finish. The long layoff and conflicting recent form make him difficult to trust here.
Lightly raced (2 career races)
£1 wins £4.50 · 19 Solid chance
Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice
19
Underrated horse
We think it's more likely to win than the odds suggest, so if it wins, it pays more than it should. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £5.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- A 13.4% overall win rate for O. Sangster. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
TrackLab Insight
This filly is the clear standout: top-rated by 3lbs, wins roughly 1 in 2 of her recent races, and has strung together three straight top-3 finishes including a win here at Bath 37 days ago. She's the market favourite at 9/2 for good reason, though she's also marked as underrated, suggesting the price may understate her chances in this tight sprint.
Top rated by 3lbs
3 straight top-3 finishes
Best career win rate in field (1 in 2)
Market favourite (9/2)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £6.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- G. Baker wins 11.7% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- Has had 22 days off since its last race. That is a routine gap that should not help or hurt.
TrackLab Insight
This gelding has never won from seven races but is building momentum with three straight top-3 finishes, including a narrow second at Bath just 37 days ago. The editorial selection is still unproven as a winner, so his progression is promising rather than established fact.
3 straight top-3 finishes
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £5.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 12.3% overall win rate for R. Hannon. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- R. Hannon wins 12.3% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- Finished 9th last time, which was a disappointing run. A poor last run raises questions about the horse's current form.
TrackLab Insight
Like Knock Three Times, she's rated among the dangers but has never raced on normal ground, so there's genuine uncertainty about her suitability here. Her form has deteriorated sharply—just one decent effort (6th) across her last six races—suggesting she's heading backwards rather than forwards.
Never raced on normal ground
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £9.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- A 12.5% overall win rate for S. Osborne. Good jockeys make better decisions during a race.
- Has had 22 days off since its last race. That is a routine gap that should not help or hurt.
TrackLab Insight
One of the higher-rated runners but a real concern emerges: she has zero wins from three starts on good ground, and her recent form shows three consecutive fifth-place finishes. At 12/1, she's one of the dangers on paper, but the pattern suggests she struggles on this kind of surface.
One of the more successful in the field (1 career wins)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £10.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- G. Scott wins 25.6% of their races at this course. Some trainers aim horses at particular tracks, and this one does well here.
- The 2yo entry rules do not quite suit this horse. That does not rule it out, but it is not ideal.
TrackLab Insight
Unbeaten in just one outing but has managed only a single top-3 finish from four races and hasn't won yet. She was beaten just 2.2L in her last race 14 days ago, so she's in the mix, but the lack of a breakthrough win and modest record suggests she's still some way from being a standout threat.
Mid-range in the market (7/1)
£1 wins £10 · 6 Could surprise
E. Walker has won 14.0% of their races in their career
6
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £11.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- E. Walker has won 14.0% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- K. Shoemark has won 11.8% of their races in their career. That steady record counts for a lot.
- Jumping is a weakness. In jumps racing, poor jumping loses ground and confidence.
TrackLab Insight
Another horse with no wins from just three races and no previous experience on normal ground, adding uncertainty to his form. His only place finish came at Redcar, but recent efforts suggest he's not progressing quickly enough to trouble the principals here.
Never raced on normal ground
Lightly raced (3 career races)
4
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £19.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- 5f is a good distance for this horse. Over its best distance, it can run its own race.
- A 0% record at this course for S. Leech. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
The lowest-rated runner in the field and still searching for a first win from three races despite hitting the frame twice. He carries the lightest weight as compensation, but his rating of 65—5lbs below the field average—reflects genuine limitations.
Lowest rated, 5lbs below average
Carries lowest weight in field
Lightly raced (3 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £29.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- An 11.7% overall win rate for E. Dunlop. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- Has a hood on today, which may mean the horse needs help to stay calm. That is a question mark over its temperament.
TrackLab Insight
This filly hasn't raced in 28 days, and her recent form is erratic—a tenth-place finish followed by a win, then a fifth. She's rated fairly high but the market has no confidence at 28/1, and the long layoff combined with inconsistent efforts makes her a risky choice here.
Unfancied in the market despite a high rating
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £41.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- 1 run here without a win. That counts against the horse. The track layout may not suit it.
- A 9.7% overall win rate for D. Evans. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- D. Evans's runners finish 21% of their races. That is below average and raises questions about how well they are prepared.
TrackLab Insight
Back after a 63-day absence with no recent racing pattern to assess, and he's never run on normal ground before—a real unknown here. His one win came at Wolverhampton in June, but recent form on other surfaces has been poor, making him a difficult read.
Never raced on normal ground