Wolverhampton

One win from 40 races is the blunt fact here — this nine-year-old has never won at Wolverhampton in 6 attempts and arrives on the back of a seventh and an eighth place. The data shows he has no wins at all on normal artificial surface conditions, which is exactly what he faces today. Hard to make a case for him at 17/1 when the evidence points so clearly in the other direction.

At 15/1 he's one of the outsiders, and a win rate of roughly 1 in 10 across 31 career races doesn't immediately demand attention. He was runner-up at Wolverhampton around 10 weeks ago, which shows he can perform here, but since then has been fourth and seventh. The form is heading the wrong direction rather than building toward a win.

At 13 years old, this is one of the oldest horses you'll see in a race, and the fact he won at Southwell just 25 days ago is remarkable rather than routine. He has 5 career wins and 17 placed efforts from 44 races, showing he knows how to compete. However, he's drawn in stall 9 in the high-draw bracket, which produces the fewest winners at this course and distance, and the jump from a lower-class race at Southwell into this field is worth noting.

Zero wins from 18 races tells the honest truth about this four-year-old, and the fact that she hasn't won at Wolverhampton in 6 attempts here makes this a tough ask. She does finish in the frame regularly — six placed efforts — but has never converted that into a win. Drawn in stall 12, the highest draw in a race where high draws historically win only around 1 in 12 times at this course and distance, the odds are stacked against her.

Five career wins from 50 races, and three of those came at Chelmsford — a track he's not visiting today. He has never won at Wolverhampton and has never won at Southwell in 9 attempts, which is a concern given his artificial surface record elsewhere. A third place at Southwell 11 days ago shows a flicker of form, but his course record here and the high draw in stall 11 make this a difficult race for him.

The standout course record in the field — 4 wins from 8 races at Wolverhampton, which works out at winning half the time he turns up here. That is a remarkable figure compared to any of his rivals today, and he also carries the lowest weight in the field, which is an advantage. He races again after just 6 days, and while that's a quick turnaround, his low draw in stall 2 plays to his favour on a track where low draws win far more often.

Back after 168 days away — the longest absence of any horse in this field — which immediately raises questions about fitness and readiness. Her best form has come on fast, dry ground, and the data shows no wins at all in wet or soft conditions, yet today's normal surface is where she has managed just 1 win from 3 races. At 26/1 after such a long break, this looks like a race to watch rather than bet on for this horse.