The market has made this the favourite at 6.0, but the recent form — three fourth-place finishes and a fifth in the last four runs — raises a fair question about whether it can convert. The jockey-trainer partnership hasn't yet won together in 14 attempts, which is worth noting. Three career wins from 25 races shows ability, but it needs to find a gear it hasn't shown lately.
The name says it all — one win from 29 races is a brutal return, and a ninth-place finish at Newcastle last time out won't fill anyone with confidence. A tongue strap is fitted and the jockey-trainer pair have won together regularly, but recent form reads 9-4-2-5-8-7 and that solitary career win came over a year and a half ago. Honest data, honest warning: this one needs things to go right.
One of the more successful in the field (1 career wins)
Still winless from 15 career races, but Karthala has placed in two of the last three outings — the most consistent recent form in this field. The Sean Quinlan and Jennie Candlish combination wins roughly 1 in 7 races together across nearly 600 outings, which is a solid partnership. A horse that keeps turning up close but hasn't found the breakthrough yet — the question is whether this is the day.
Second in the market at 7.2, but the form book makes that hard to justify — eight races, zero wins, zero placed finishes, and a recent run of 7-8-6-10-10-8. The jockey-trainer partnership does win roughly 1 in 8 races together across a large sample, which is respectable, but they'll need something to click that simply hasn't clicked for this horse yet. The market support is a puzzle the form doesn't answer.
2nd in the market (7.2)
Trainer Quotes
Oct 2025
"He ran in a couple of bumpers for Daragh Bourke and will go novice hurdling. He's very headstrong and needs to learn to race and do everything properly, but he should be capable of winning races when he puts it all together. 29-10-25"
Two wins from 26 races is a modest record, and a ninth-place finish at Chepstow 30 days ago was well beaten. The last six runs read 9-6-3-9-11-5, which shows flickers of form occasionally but nothing consistent enough to trust. Despite a decent enough win rate of roughly 1 in 13, this horse has struggled on both dry and normal ground, which doesn't help here.
One of the more successful in the field (2 career wins)
The most recent winner in the field — she landed a race at Market Rasen just 48 days ago, making her the horse with the freshest winning memory here. She came back to finish fourth at the same course 22 days later, beaten 15 lengths, but winning form is winning form and it's rare in this company. First time out with a new jockey, but Lady Fortune brings more momentum than most of her rivals.
One of the more successful in the field (1 career wins)
The best career win rate in the field — one win from six races, roughly 1 in 6 — and that single victory came over this kind of distance, where the data shows a strong record. The last few runs have been beaten a long way, but those came over distances that may not have suited. Lightly raced with a strong win rate on normal ground and at this trip: one of the more intriguing profiles in the race.
Wearing tongue strapFresh (84 days off)Won 0 of last 5
TrackLab Insight
The least experienced runner in the field with just seven career races, and still searching for a first win. Three months off since finishing sixth at Taunton means there's some freshness here, but a form line of 6-3-7-4-8-6 is hard to read positively. The third place at Stratford suggests some ability, but the data is too thin to build much confidence.
The second-highest official rating in the field at 93 marks this out as one of the better-handicapped horses here on paper. That said, a fall at Cartmel and a 14-length third at Hexham in the last two runs doesn't scream confidence, and this is only a 13-race career so there's still plenty unknown. Young and capable on ratings, but needs to prove it on the day.
The most experienced horse in the field by a distance — 35 career races compared to a field average of 15 — but with just one win to show for all that racing, at a rate of roughly 1 in 35. Rated 11 pounds below the field average and carrying the lightest weight, she's at the very bottom of the handicap. A pulled-up run and a distant fifth in recent outings do little to suggest the trend is about to change.
Lowest rated, 10lbs below averageCarries lowest weight in fieldMost experienced (35 runs, field avg 15)
The most lightly raced runner here with just two career races, and both of those resulted in beaten distances of over 23 lengths. A 47-length defeat at Bangor-On-Dee 19 days ago is difficult to put a positive spin on. With no placed finishes and very little data to go on, this is very much a horse still learning the ropes.
Wearing hoodFresh (242 days off)Won 0 of last 5Raced here before
TrackLab Insight
The longest absence in the field by far — 242 days since it last ran, finishing fifth at this very course at Uttoxeter. Zero wins and just one place from ten career races makes for grim reading, and returning from such a lengthy break into a competitive field is a big ask. The only relevant Uttoxeter experience in its record ended in a distant fifth.
How do odds work?The first number is what you win, the second is what you bet. So 5/2 means you win £5 for every £2. 4/1 means you win £4 for every £1. The bigger the first number, the less likely bookmakers think the horse will win — but the more you'd win if it does.