The market has made Fine Thing the favourite despite this horse having just one race to its name — a third-place finish at Market Rasen 26 days ago. That confidence is largely built on the trainer Dan Skelton, who wins roughly 1 in 5 races with jockey Harry Skelton, one of the most productive partnerships in the sport. With so little form on the board, punters are essentially betting on the team behind the horse as much as the horse itself.
Lightly raced (1 career races)Market favourite (3.3)
Despite being the second-favourite in the market at just under 5-to-1, Moonshine River is actually making her racecourse debut today — there is no public form whatsoever to justify that market position. The form listed appears inconsistent with the career data, which shows zero previous races, so punters backing her are entirely relying on what the trainer has seen at home in training. That's a significant act of faith, however well the horse may be regarded behind the scenes.
J. O'Neill Jr.
·
J. & A.J. O'Neill
· 5yo
· 11st 4lb
Form
14
Won 0 of last 5
TrackLab Insight
Three races in and still waiting for a win, Diamond Grace's best recent effort was a third-place finish at Worcester 28 days ago, beaten just over nine lengths. That's a modest return so far, and a fifth-place finish at Warwick before that doesn't add much encouragement. One of the lighter-raced horses in the field, but the form doesn't yet suggest she's ready to take a big step forward here.
This horse has never raced before, so there is genuinely nothing to go on from a form perspective — it's a complete unknown stepping onto a racecourse for the first time. What we do know is that Sean Bowen is one of the better jockeys around, and his trainer Olly Murphy wins roughly 1 in 4 races together as a combination. Debutants can surprise, but you're taking a leap of faith here.
Wearing cheekpiecesWon 0 of last 5Raced here before
TrackLab Insight
The most experienced horse in the field by some distance — 11 races compared to a field average of 5 — Jessie Jump Jet has finished second at her last three outings in a row, including twice at this very trip at Market Rasen. That relentless consistency in second place is both the appeal and the worry: she clearly has the ability, but converting a place into a win has so far proved beyond her. If she's ever going to break that duck, the form suggests now is as good a time as any.
Most experienced (11 runs, field avg 5)3 straight top-3 finishes
The 26-to-1 outsider of the field, Midnight Pass arrives here having been pulled up — meaning the jockey stopped the horse before finishing — at Market Rasen just 26 days ago. The two runs before that saw her finish fourth on both occasions, beaten a long way, and her form figures across eight career races tell a story of a horse that has never threatened to win. Hard to make a case for her at this price.
On paper, Lipstick Traces is the highest-rated horse in the field — rated 6lbs clear of the next best — which tells you the official assessors think she has more ability than her rivals. The problem is she fell at her most recent race just 10 days ago, and ten career races without a win suggests something always goes wrong at the crucial moment. The class is arguably there, but trust has to be earned.
Orestina is the only horse in this field to have actually won a race, claiming victory at Newcastle earlier this year — a real point of difference in a field full of horses still looking for their first win. However, the two runs since that victory have been poor, finishing 10th and 5th beaten a long way on both occasions, which suggests she may have found her level or hasn't transferred that flat-track form to hurdles consistently. At 41-to-1, the market isn't convinced she can recapture that winning feeling.
Miss The Sting has had just one race in her life — a distant eighth at Southwell — and has then been off the track for 475 days, the longest absence of any horse in this field by a wide margin. Coming back after over a year away with so little experience to draw on is a tough ask, and the odds of 81-to-1 reflect just how much of an unknown quantity she is. One for the notebook rather than the wallet.
Lightly raced (1 career races)Absent 475 days (longest in field)
How do odds work?The first number is what you win, the second is what you bet. So 5/2 means you win £5 for every £2. 4/1 means you win £4 for every £1. The bigger the first number, the less likely bookmakers think the horse will win — but the more you'd win if it does.